Press Review #SoseXpress 10-16 July 2021

It is sad to know that I could be the only woman at the G20. We need the best political ideas to give all women the right opportunities and achieve equality by 2030. 

The President of the European Commission, Ursula Von Der Layen, at the Rome Women 20 summit. 

The debate of ideas 

 

Why the NRRP needs a broad and open discussion to succeed

After the approval by the European Commission, the NRRP is about to take its first steps. However, the first question is: how to implement an economic-financial program that will impact our country for the next ten years? During the approval by the Government, the parliamentary discussion has not always been exhaustive, but this should not happen as regards the vast implementing legislation. "This legislation will concern not only technical and operational aspects but will contain also political choices: the Plan can have very different impacts depending on how it will be implemented concretely." Here to learn more. 

 

Fears for the future: The dynamics of Italian households' savings  

After the Covid-19 outbreak, the savings rate in Italy has risen to the highest levels of the last twenty years. The Bank of Italy estimates that 39% of Italian households accumulated savings in 2020, a share almost 10 points higher than before the pandemic. People, who had the possibility, saved money to protect themselves against the health and economic uncertainty with a precautionary attitude that could persist. "As the pandemic is progressively brought under control, also thanks to the vaccination campaign, an important and highly debated issue regards the prospects of savings and consumption in the short and medium term." Here an in-depth article published on LaVoce.info. 

Studies, research and numbers 

 

XXXV ICE Report and ISTAT-ICE Yearbook: exports are driving the recovery 

The XXXV ICE Report and the Istat-ICE Yearbook were presented on July 16, two important information and analysis tools on the competitive positioning of the Italian production system in the global economy. The Report confirms exports as the leading sector of the Italian economy. In 2020, despite the contraction in trade, Italy's exports performed better than the United States, France, and the United Kingdom. 

The export outlook remains positive, with more than 23.9% growth compared to last year and returning to pre-covid levels already in the first five months of 2021. Here to learn more. 

 

Istat, absolute poverty on the rise. From NRRP annual GDP growing by about 0.5%, up to + 2.8% in 2026 

Istat published "The 2021 Annual Report," which outlines a country, in 2020, the horrible year of Covid, characterized by an increasing number of individuals living in poverty and unemployed and a record number of deaths. In 2020, households' incomes decreased, and absolute poverty grew strongly, affecting over 2 million families, equal to 7.7% (it was 6.4% in 2019), and more than 5.6 million individuals, 9.4% (it was 7.7%). However, according to the report, the first signs of recovery and optimism are emerging. In the first quarter of 2021, manufacturing, construction, and the tertiary sector recorded significant improvements. Istat estimated that, despite a moderate recovery in the previous months, in May, employment decreased by 735,000 units compared to the level before the emergency. After last year's decline (-8.9%) caused by the collapse of domestic demand, Istat estimates that GDP will rise by 4.7% in 2021, with an annual growth of about 0.5% (between + 2.3% and +2.6% in 2026), thanks to the 235 billion euro of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP). Here the note by Istat. 

 

Employment:  200,000 vacancies, a record in the last five years. Tourism is the sector most in difficulty, followed by IT

Companies are in search of around 200,000 workers but are struggling to find them. In the first quarter of 2021, the vacancy index in industry and services reached its record in 5 years. Every 1,000 employees, there are 15 vacancies, almost double compared to 2020, when they were 8. According to the 2021 Report on sustainable work realized by Fondazione per la Sussidiarietà, in collaboration with CRISP - Research Centre of the University of Milan Bicocca, the challenge is to abandon the idea of a permanent job on a path requiring flexibility, continuous training, and willingness to change. As the ecological and digital transition advances, tourism is experiencing the greatest difficulties in finding employees: 30 vacancies every 1,000 people employed in hotels and restaurants. This sector is followed by IT and telecommunications (24), professional studies (22), construction (22), and business services (18). Here to learn more. 

 

Employment: 270 thousand fewer new jobs than the pre-pandemic period  

Employment: 270,000 fewer new jobs than in the "no pandemic" scenario In the first six months of the year, new jobs amounted to 719,000, over 12% more than in the same period of 2019. However, the gap between new employment contracts after the pandemic outbreak and the expectations without the Covid-19 crisis remains wide (approximately -270,000). The Ministry of Labour and the Bank of Italy revealed these data in a joint note analysing the employment rate. In May and June, temporary new jobs were 520,000, bringing the total number of new fixed-term contracts since the beginning of the year, net of terminations, to approximately 611,000, 245,000 more than in 2019. Employment in the industry continues to grow at a pre-pandemic pace: around 165,000 new jobs in the first six months of 2021. Female employment and the South are recovering, while professional apprenticeship contracts are still stagnating. Here the Note by the Bank of Italy. 

 

The Bank of Italy: inflation and growth expectations for businesses improve in the third quarter

According to the survey conducted by the Bank of Italy between 24 May and 15 June 2021 among Italian industrial and service firms with 50 or more employees, there was a significant rise in the share of businesses reporting an improvement in the general economic situation in the last quarter (48.9% from 9.0 in the previous survey) and in expectations regarding their operating conditions over the next three months (35.3% from 14.2). Furthermore, in the third quarter, firms expect a further increase in sales in all sectors and in employment, and improved investment conditions associated with an increase in investment spending. Finally, Consumer price inflation expectations rose over all time horizons regaining the levels registered in the first half of 2019. Here the Note by the Bank of Italy. 

 

INPS: during the pandemic, employment down by 2.8%, self-employment collapsed. 330,000 jobs preserved by the freeze on layoffs

Between the last quarter of 2019 and the first quarter of 2021, the number of employees in Italy fell by 2.8%, a sustained decline, especially for the self-employed, who decreased by 5.1%. The INPS annual report revealed these data and estimated that the freeze on layoffs preserved 330,000 jobs between March 2020 and February 2021.  Two-thirds of them regarded companies with less than 15 employees. In the year of the pandemic, layoffs were about half the average 560,000 in the previous two years. It is a picture with many shadows and few lights from whatever angle you analyse it, INPS remarks. Here the press releases by INPS. 

 

AIE: the book market grows in the first six months of the year 

In the first six months of the year, the book market has grown in all genres and sales channels, despite some difficulties in the large-scale distribution. According to the analysis realized by the research department of the Italian Publishers Association (Italian acronym - AIE) based on NielsenIQ data, in the reference period (January-June), trade channels (i.e., bookstores, online and physical, and large-scale distribution, excluding schoolbooks) recorded an increase of 15 million books in sales (+ 44%) compared to 2020. The growth is even more significant if compared to 2019 (therefore free from the effects of the pandemic): 11 million copies of books more (+ 31%). These sales generated for the supply chain over 207 million euros compared to 2020 (+ 42%) and over 156 million compared to 2019 (+ 28%), bringing the book market to a total value of 698 million Euro in these first six months. Here for more information. 

 

Eurozone, industrial production down by 1% in May 

In May 2021, seasonally adjusted industrial production decreased by 1.0% in the euro area and by 0.9% in the EU, compared to April 2021, according to Eurostat, disappointing analysts who expected a minimum decline of 0.2%. In Italy, industrial production fell by 1.5% in May, after an increase of 1.5% in April. On an annual basis, production recorded an increase of 20.5%, lower than expected (+ 22.2%) after a rise of 39.4% in the previous month (revised from + 39.3%). Here the press release by Eurostat. 

 

The Bank of Italy: online shopping and the use of cards take off with covid

According to a study by the Bank of Italy, which evaluates the impact of the pandemic on the use of retail payment instruments in Italy, the Covid-19 has quickly changed the buying habits of Italians, giving rise to an increase in the spread of innovative payment instruments. "The share of online transactions on the total card payments - The Bank of Italy states - went from 25% before the lockdown to over 40% in April 2020. In physical stores, the share of transactions with contactless cards exceeded 55% of the total value spent with a card in May 2020, compared to 35% in January ". In the last quarter of 2020, the share of e-commerce and contactless transactions was over 30% and 60% respectively of total card purchases, compared to 22% and 33% recorded in the same period of 2019. At the same time, the use of cash decreased: in the first half of 2020, cash withdrawals from ATMs decreased in volume by over 20% on an annual basis. Here the Note by the Bank of Italy. 

 

Istat: inflation in June remains at 1.3%, still driven by energy products 

According to Istat estimates, in June, inflation remained stable at 1.3% on an annual basis (as in the previous month). The national consumer price index for the whole community (NIC), excluding tobacco, recorded an increase of 0.1% on a monthly basis. Inflation is still supported by the sustained growth in the prices of energy products (which accelerated slightly from + 13.8% in May to + 14.1%), both regulated energy products (from + 16.8% to + 16.9%), and non-regulated ones (from + 12.6% to + 12.8%). However, prices of services related to recreation, cultural activities, and personal care show slight signs of recovery (+ 1.0%), while prices of processed food reduced their decrease (from -1.1% to -0.4%). Here the Note by Istat. 

 

Banca Ifis - Market Watch PMI: for 38% of companies, investments in sustainability are strategic 

A survey carried out by Banca Ifis Market Watch PMI observatory in collaboration with Format Research revealed that the Italian SMEs consider sustainability a responsibility that companies have towards the territory and the community, with a strategic value for their competitive and reputational positioning. According to the survey on a sample of over five hundred Italian companies, sustainability is essential for 67% of them, with peaks of 82% in the Chemical-Pharmaceutical sector and 75% in the Mechanical engineering sector. In addition, 38% of Italian SMEs have already invested in the green evolution, which is only at the beginning and will intensify over the next two years involving 78% of SMEs. Here to learn more. 

 

CNEL: "Italy under stress," the Report on stress tests 

"One of the most significant effects of the health emergency is the recovery of citizens' confidence in the national government and having redesigned the geography of families, businesses and workers."  Tiziano Treu, CNEL president, used these words, presenting the Report on the stress tests conducted by CNEL during the seminar "Italy under stress." The Report estimates that 68.7% of Italian households maintained their income unchanged during the pandemic, 16.7% suffered a decrease in income up to 25%, 7,7% from 25 to 50%, and for 5.5%, the fall was greater than 50%. The survey reports, "18 million families are safe, while 7 and a half million families risk to be strangled." Here the press release by CNEL. 

 

Istat: Italy, trade balance down to 5.64 billion euro in May 

According to Istat estimates, in May 2021, the Italian trade balance amounted to +5,642 million euro, compared to +5,871 in the previous month and +5,620 in May 2020. Net of energy products, it amounted to +8,632 million (it was + 6,633 in May of last year). The trade balance with EU countries is 859 million euros, compared to 1 billion in the previous month. In May 2021, seasonally-adjusted data, compared to April 2021, decreased by 2.0% for outgoing flows and by 0.3% for incoming flows. Exports dropped for non-EU countries (-4.0%) while remained stationary for EU countries. In the quarter March-May 2021, compared to the previous one, exports increased by 6.1%, imports by 9.4%. Here the Note by Istat. 

 

The voice of Stakeholders 

 

Confindustria Study Centre: industrial production confirms positive expectations and grows in the 2nd quarter (+ 1.1%) 

According to the analysis carried out by Confindustria Study Centre, the Italian industrial production grew in the second quarter (+ 1.1%) of 2021, despite the sharp decrease estimated by Istat in May (-1.5%) and thanks to the increase of June (+ 1.3%). The economic indicators relating to the second quarter continue to show an improvement in the economic context, and for the third quarter, an increase of 0.3% is expected. Domestic demand should accelerate, supported in recent months also by consumption. At the same time, production, net of the different number of working days, increased in June by 14.7% compared to the same month of 2020. In June, orders increased in volume by 2.3% compared to the previous month (+ 13.8% compared to June 2020) and in May by 1.8% compared to April (+ 36.0% on an annual basis). Here to learn more. 

 

Industry: Ucimu, orders up by 88% in the first half of the year 

According to UCIMU (National Union of manufacturers of machinery for the industry), in the first half of 2021, the Italian machinery industry recorded an increase of 88% in the order index. Domestic orders grew by 238%, and foreign orders (+ 57.5%) contributed to the result. According to Ucimu estimates, the production of machine tools, robots, and automation should grow by 10.9% in 2021, reaching 5.7 billion euro. Exports will increase by 9.4% up to 3.1 billion euro and consumption by 10.9% up to 4 billion. These results are linked to the positive trend of sales in both domestic and foreign markets. Here the press release by Ucimu. 

 

Congiuntura Confcommercio: GDP at 6.5% on an annual basis, but Covid makes the economic situation uncertain 

The data released by Congiuntura Confcommercio for July indicate an increase in consumption still far from pre-Covid levels. GDP grew by 6.5% on an annual basis, but the uncertainty linked to the epidemic situation weighs on the relaunch of many economic sectors. In May 2021, industrial production suffered a setback (-1.5% monthly), interrupting the recovery phase, while the comparison on an annual basis continues to show a sustained increase of 21.2%. Also, in May, employment confirmed a moderate recovery: + 0.2% in April. The Confcommercio Consumption Indicator (Italian acronym ICC) increased by 7.7% on an annual basis, showing a slowdown compared to the previous two months. Finally, in June, retail businesses' sentiment continued to increase (+ 6.8% compared to May). Here for more information. 

 

 Innovation 

 

Istat: digital technologies against the crisis. Good performance of industry 4.0, but in Europe, Italy is at the bottom of the ranking

"Digital technologies represent a strategic component for the competitiveness of countries and the evolution of production systems towards greater sustainability." This is stated in the Istat 2021 Annual Report, which dedicates an entire chapter to Italian digital, deepening the macro-projects on the agenda and the critical points of the country's innovative future. According to Istat, Italy has allocated about 27% of the 235 billion of its National Recovery and Resilience Plan (222 billion) and React-Eu funds (13 billion) to digitization projects. According to the report, between 2018 and 2020, Italian companies using cloud and advanced services increased from 23 to 59% and 11 to 32%, respectively, reaching a good position in interconnected systems and remote-controlled devices. However, compared to other EU countries. The Italian production system shows delays in electronic commerce and lacks specialized skills among people working in ICT. Here the note by Istat.  

 

Internet: a "fundamental right" for Italians. 60% want 5G immediately 

86.3% of Italians think that internet access must be guaranteed to everyone, and 60.4% are for 5G immediately operational everywhere. These numbers demonstrate the centrality of the web, an essential resource for giving continuity to work and professional activities, studies, and social relations even during the pandemic. According to the Censis report in collaboration with WindTre, the web is an indispensable part of daily life in the post-pandemic scenario. 65.5% of the 46 million Italians with an internet connection use both the fixed and mobile network, 14.1% only the mobile, 12.1% only the fixed network. For 80.2% (85.2% of young people), the connection costs should be financed, in whole or in part, by general taxation, removing all access barriers, starting with the economic one. Here and here for further information. 

 

The digital future of the PAs: NRRP, a unique opportunity to innovate 

The NRRP will allocate one and a half billion euro to implement a National Strategic Pole for IT in the PAs. However, investments might be insufficient. The challenges of this revolution are linked to the strategies to support those investments and adequate skills. Here for more information. 

 

MISE: innovative startups: all data of July 2021 

The new edition of the quarterly report monitoring innovative startups' demographic trends and economic performance was published. The study, analysing data updated to 1 July 2021, was realized by MISE and InfoCamere, in collaboration with Unioncamere, and offers an extensive overview of the world of startups. The main information of the report: registered startups amount to over 13 thousand; over a quarter of all Italian startups (26.7%) are in Lombardy; the share capital of the companies has increased significantly (+ 9.5%), reaching over 65 thousand; innovative startups are mainly micro-enterprises, with an average production value slightly under € 171.7 thousand. Here the Note by Mise. 

 

Gender equity 

 

Symbola-Unioncamere Report: Cohesion is the basis for the future of the economy 

Cohesive companies export more (58% against 39% of non-cohesive), make more eco-investments (39% against 19% of non-cohesive), invest more to improve products and services (58% against 46% of non-cohesive) and adopt measures to implement the Transition Plan 4.0 (28% against 11% of non-cohesive). These data emerge from the report “Cohesion is competition” realized by Symbola Foundation, Intesa San Paolo, and Unioncamere. According to the report, the number of cohesive companies increased from 32% in 2018 to 37% in 2020. Here to learn more. 

 

Local Authorities 

 

The State-cities conference: agreement on the allocation of 1,280 million to local authorities to support lower revenues in the covid emergency 

The State-Cities Conference and the Minister of Economy and Finance reached an agreement on the decree of the Minister of the Interior concerning the allocation of the funds to support local authorities' functions for 2021. The resources amount to 1 billion and 280 million euros, of which 1 billion and 150 million to municipalities and 130 million to metropolitan districts and provinces and aim to restore, in 2020-2021, the loss of revenue caused by the Covid-19 emergency. The total amount is equal to over 85% of the initial allocation of 1 billion and 500 million euros (of which 1 billion and 350 million to municipalities and 150 million to provinces and metropolitan districts). Here the Note by the Interior Ministry. 

 

The world of MEF 

 

Mef: credit and liquidity for households and businesses 

According to the surveys carried out by the task force for the implementation of the measures to support liquidity during the Covid-19 emergency (including Mef, Mise, Bank of Italy, ABI, Mediocredito Centrale, and Sace), moratoriums are still active on loans for about 83 billion, based on 800 thousand suspensions granted. 64 billion concern ex lege moratoriums in favour of SMEs, which amounted to 103 billion in the last survey (referring to mid-June). The reduction of almost 40 billion is due to the failure of the borrowers to request an extension. Requests for guarantees on new bank loans for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises submitted to the Guarantee Fund for SMEs exceed 184 billion. "Garanzia Italia" of SACE granted guarantees on loans for € 26.4bn, out of 2,704 requests received. Here the press release by Mef. 

 

Mef: Report on tax and social security revenues in January-May 2021 

Mef published the Report on tax and social security revenues in the first five months of the year, showing an overall increase of 9.2% (+22,611 million euros) compared to the same period of 2020. This figure considers the increase of 11.0% (+16,877 million euros) in tax revenues and 6.3% (+5,734 million euros) in social security revenues. Tax revenue includes local authorities' main taxes and corrective items. Here the press release by Mef. 

 

Mef: ISA statistics and income tax returns 

The Department of Finance published the statistics relating to the Synthetic Indices of Reliability, VAT-registered professionals' declarations, and the taxable income declared by taxpayers in 2020, relating to the 2019 tax period. In 2019, 2,740,641 taxpayers were subject to ISAs, with a decrease of 14% compared to 2018, as many taxpayers adopted the flat-rate regime, which excludes the application of the indices.With the 2019 ISAs, the average revenues declared by taxpayers amounted to € 288,400. In 2019, the taxpayers who got at least 8 as ISA score were 1,049,803, 38.3% of the total, in line with the 39% in 2018. Considering only taxpayers who accessed the reward system (and with revenues exceeding 30,000 euros), the declared average revenues amounted to 340,150 euros, a significant increase (+ 23%) compared to 2018, the average declared income is equal to 64,607 euros, with an increase of 12%. Here the press release by MEF.