#SoseXpress - Press Review 11/17 september 2021

Multilateralism is the best answer to the problems we face today. In many ways, it is the only possible solution. From the pandemic to climate change to fair and equitable taxation, going all this alone is simply not an option. 

The Prime Minister, Mario Draghi, in his opening address at the Rome G20 Summit on 30 and 31 October. 

The debate of ideas 

But is the GDP an ally of the climate? 

According to the Nobel Prize in Physics 2021, Giorgio Parisi, who spoke at the pre-Cop26 parliamentary meeting in view of the Glasgow summit, "the GDP of individual countries is the basis of political decisions, and the mission of governments seems to be to increase it as much as possible, an objective in stark contrast with the fight to climate change. "If we reduce GDP, emissions will drop, and the climate will improve, and 2020 has confirmed this trend. The restrictions on economic activities to limit the spread of Covid-19 caused a reduction in world GDP of more than 3%, and CO2 emissions into the atmosphere fell proportionately by 6.7%. The economic consequences, in addition to the pandemic impact, were dramatic: for the first time in recent decades, the number of people living in absolute poverty has increased (by 120 million) Here the full article on LaVoce.info 

When the contractual wage is too rigid for companies 

Over the past decade, the business world has become increasingly global, competitive and with an ever-increasing need for flexibility. This synthesis is inspired by an in-depth analysis carried out within the VisitInps program, systematically collecting data on the minimum wage levels of national employment contracts. The study focuses on the effects of contractual wage growth on personnel management strategies and business performance assessment. In a well-functioning economic system, wages and productivity are two sides of the same coin. However, firms compete in different parts of the world on global markets, and their productivity varies significantly. The proposals for introducing a minimum wage have reopened the debate on the effectiveness of the Italian system based on centralised, collective bargaining. Here for further information on LaVoce.info. 

Studies, research and numbers 

IHS MARKIT: new record in October for Italian manufacturing 

In October, the PMI manufacturing index rose to 61.1 from 59.7 in September, recording another month of rapid growth. According to IHS Markit, client demand strengthened further, with a sharp rise in new orders, the fastest since June. However, the interruptions in the distribution chain continue to slow down the sector, and average delivery times have lengthened to an almost record level due to the shortage of materials and problems related to transport, aggravating inflationary pressures already at unprecedented levels. Here for more information 

IHS MARKIT PMI: in October, growth slowed down in the service sector  

In October, the IHS Markit Italy service PMI seasonally adjusted index was 52.4, recording the sixth consecutive month of increase. However, the growth rate was the weakest in this sequence, falling significantly compared to September. October data also highlighted further severe inflationary pressures. The burden of costs incurred by Italian service firms rose again, with the strongest rate of increase since July 2008. Nonetheless, at the beginning of the fourth quarter, the service sector continued to be the driving force for economic growth. Here for more information. 

Istat: in 2019, value-added up to 826bn, an increase of 2.4% 

In 2019, 4.2 million companies were active in the industrial and service sectors with 16.9 million workers, of which 12.2 million employees, generating a value-added of 826 billion, a 2.4% increase compared to 2018 (+ 1.8% in manufacturing, + 2.4% in services and + 5.8% in construction). Istat reveals these data in the Report "Conti economici delle imprese e dei gruppi di impresa" (Economic accounts of enterprises and enterprise groups)." Over half of the value-added (56.6%) comes from enterprise groups, in which the value-added per employee exceeds € 78,000 compared to almost 33,000 of independent enterprises. Average productivity is higher in multinational groups, with the holding company resident abroad. (€ 95,000 per employee) than those with the holding company resident in Italy (€ 94,000) and much lower in domestic ones (€ 57,000). Here the Note by Istat. 

Crif: with the economic recovery, credit requests by businesses decrease 

As the economic recovery strengthens, companies’ liquidity needs decrease. In the third quarter of 2021, credit applications decreased by 18.8% compared to the same quarter of 2020, returning to the pre-Covid levels after the peak of 2020. This is what emerges from the analysis of the loan requests registered on EURISC, the Credit Information System managed by CRIF. The current trend concerns both corporations and sole proprietorships, which were particularly affected by the pandemic. Here to learn more. 

Istat: in September, employment up by 59 thousand units 

In September 2021, the number of people employed increased, and the number of unemployed and inactive people decreased. Employment rose by 0.3%, equal to 59 thousand units, involving both men and women and temporary employees, people aged 25-34 and over-50. The employment rate rose to 58.3% (+0.2 points). Istat estimated a 0.4% increase in employment in the third quarter compared to the previous one, equal to 81 thousand units. The decrease in job seekers is more significant for men and involves people over 24 years of age. The unemployment rate dropped to 9.2% (-0.1 points) but increased to 29.8% (+1.8 points) among young people. Here the Note by Istat. 

Istat: in September the value of sales reached pre-pandemic levels 

According to Istat, the seasonally adjusted retail trade index rose by 0.8% in value and 0.6% in volume in September. Sales of food products increased by 0.6% in value and 0.3% in volume, while sales of non-food products grew by 1.1% in value and 0.8% in volume. On a monthly basis, In the third quarter of 2021, retail sales increased by 1.2% in value and 0.7% in volume. Sales of non-food products grew both in value (+ 1.7%) and in volume (+ 1.3%), while food products recorded an increase in value (+ 0.5%) and a slight decrease in volume (-0.2%). Finally, Istat underlines that the seasonally adjusted index in volume reached the level of February 2020 for the first time since the beginning of the health emergency, thanks to the positive dynamics of recent months. Here the note on the Istat website. 

Mediobanca: Italian GDP up by 5.8% in 2021, + 4.2% in 2022. Above the EU average 

The Italian GDP is expected to grow more than the euro area average: + 5.8% in 2021 (+0.9 percentage points more than the July estimates) and + 4.2% in 2022. In addition to the NRRP, which will provide the opportunity to create a green, digitized and more productive economy, the manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from the recovery in exports towards key markets. If manufacturing and service companies recorded a decrease in turnover of 11.7% in 2020, an increase of 8% is expected in 2021 and 6.5% in 2022. The Mediobanca Research Department published these estimates in the annual survey concerning leading Italian companies. Here to learn more. 

The Bank of Italy: € -coin remained essentially unchanged in October 

In October, the € -coin index stood essentially at the same level as the previous month (moving to 0.71 from 0.75 in September). In its monthly update, the Bank of Italy explains that the slowdown in industrial production was offset by overall positive signals from households and firms' expectations and foreign trade. Here the Note by the Bank of Italy. 

The Bank of Italy: The North drives the recovery, but the gap with the South does not widen 

In the report on regional economies, the Bank of Italy points out that the North is driving the post-pandemic recovery, but the gap with the South does not widen. After the severe effects of the Covid crisis, in Italy the vaccination campaign, the gradual relaxation of restrictions, and the renewal of the support measures for households and firms have determined the turnaround observed in the second quarter when the economic activity increased by over 17% compared to the corresponding period of 2020. "The recovery was more marked in the North than in the rest of the country and was everywhere supported by increasing exports, started in the second half of 2020 ". Here the note on the Bank of Italy website. 

The voice of Stakeholders 

Unioncamere: construction companies increase by 30 thousand units, "bonus" effect in two years 

Thanks to the impact of bonuses and super-bonuses in the construction sector, new firms exceeded closures by 22 thousand units in the third quarter of 2021. This threshold was exceeded only twice in the summer quarters of the pre-pandemic decade. These data emerge from the Movimprese quarterly analysis, conducted by Unioncamere and InfoCamere, on data from the Business Register of the Chambers of Commerce. According to Unioncamere data, construction has boosted the entrepreneurial system in the last quarter, with 6,200 more companies (+ 0.95% compared to the end of June), contributing by 28% to the positive result of the period. Here an in-depth analysis on the Unioncamere website. 

Confcommercio Professionisti: 40 thousand professionals lost due to the pandemic 

According to the Report " Professioni Restart: la ripartenza fra opportunità e criticità (Professioni Restart: restart between opportunities and difficulties", conducted by the Confcommercio Research Office for Confcommercio Professioni, the professionals amounted to over 1 million and 400 thousand in 2019. During the pandemic, they decreased by at least 40 thousand units. From 2008 to 2019, self-employed people grew by 89%, reaching 429,000 units. A high growth rate, also confirmed by the 10% increase in 2019 compared to 2018. Covid has undoubtedly stopped this trend. Here for more information. 

Confartigianato: in Italy, small innovative companies amount to 60.9% of small enterprises 

Small Italian companies' propensity to innovation is widespread and growing over time. The analysis of the most recent statistical data highlights the strengths of the Italian small business system based on innovation, productivity, and economic growth. The Confartigianato Research Department analyses this trend in the Report " Ripresa dopo la pandemia e punti di forza delle micro e piccole imprese (Recovery after the pandemic and of micro and small businesses’ strengths)", based on the data of the latest Istat survey for the period 2016-2018. Small innovative enterprises are more than half (53.3%) of the small enterprises employing 10-49 workers, an increase of 7.7 percentage points compared to 45.6% in the previous three years. With its share of small innovative businesses equal to 60.9%, Italy exceeds the European average by 14.9 percentage points (46.0%). The most significant presence of innovative companies is in Veneto, Emilia-Romagna and Lombardy. Here to learn more on the Confartigianato website. 

 

Innovation 

ANPR (National Register of Resident Population): from 15 November, citizens can download their certificates online and free of charge 

From 15 November, Italian citizens will download their certificates online independently and free of charge for the first time. The new service provided by the National Register of Resident Population (ANPR) of the Ministry of the Interior will allow citizens to download 14 different certificates for themselves or a family member from their computer without going to any office. The certificates will be issued free of charge (and available in other languages for municipalities with multilingualism). Here the Note by the Ministry for technological innovation and digital transition. 

GFK: the Panel of ICT Distributors grows by + 8.4% in 2021 

In the first nine months of 2021, the turnover of technological products represented by the GFK Panel of ICT Distributors reached € 6.1 billion, with an increase of 8.4% compared to the same period of 2020. In Italy, the demand for technological assets remains strongly supported by the acceleration of the digital transformation involving all sectors, companies and families, the PA and the Education sector.In the first nine months of 2021, the IT sector benefited from these changes, as shown by consumer trends: notebooks and tablets grew by + 14.6%; a positive trend also for PCs (+ 8.2%) and television sets (+ 12.7%). Here to learn more. 

Gender equity 

FIPE-CONFCOMMERCIO: "the gender gap among workers and entrepreneurs in the catering sector." 

Women from the world of restaurants and tourism, in general, bear the brunt of the pandemic: 183 thousand workers in the sector had to abandon their business due to the crisis. Furthermore, the numbers of the sector certify that only 28.7% of bars and restaurants are run by women, although 51.4% of the workforce are women. A percentage that will decrease in 2021 because of the post-pandemic closures. Here and here more information on the Confcommercio and Fipe-Confcommercio websites. 

Local Authorities 

Local authorities' spending capacity  

The restart of the country also depends on the state's and local authorities' ability to support families and businesses. Therefore, supporting local administrations’ spending capacity is a strategic lever for restarting production activities and supporting citizens. The implementation of fiscal federalism contributes to this goal. Therefore, it is fundamental to understand the measures provided for by the NRRP and approved by Europe that can affect the path towards autonomy. 

Starting from the recent hearing of the Court of Auditors before the Parliamentary Commission for the Implementation of Fiscal Federalism, Centro Studi Enti Locali (CSEL) published a report that analyses the implementation capacity of Municipalities, which will invest the 80 billion euros provided by the Plan by 2026. Here to learn more. 

The world of MEF 

Mef: borrowing requirement improves in October 

The working balance for the first ten months of the current year is estimated at approximately 93,200 million, with an improvement of roughly 44,900 million compared to the same period of 2020 (-138,154 million). In October 2021, the balance of the state sector closed, provisionally, with a requirement of 7,500 million, with an improvement of approximately 2,300 million compared to the result of the same month last year (-9,844 million). The Ministry of Economy and Finance highlights that in comparison with the corresponding month of 2020, the balance benefited from the increase in tax revenues due to favourable cyclical effects and higher revenues for VAT on imports. At the same time, Mef reports that "central government expenditure increased due to a financial intervention in favour of CSEA (Fund for Energy and Environmental Services) to mitigate the effects of energy increasing prices on electricity tariffs, partially offset by the decrease in expenditure by local administrations". Here the press release by MEF. 

MEF: credit and liquidity for households and businesses 

Moratoriums are still active (pursuant to law and voluntary) for a total value of approximately 62 billion, against about 560,000 suspensions granted. Requests for guarantees on new bank loans for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises submitted to the Guarantee Fund for SMEs exceeded 207 billion. The loans guaranteed through the “Garanzia Italia” fund of Sace amount to € 29,8 bn, out of 3,519 requests received. These are the main results of the survey carried out by the task force set up to promote the implementation of the measures to support liquidity adopted by the Government during the Covid-19 emergency. The task force includes the Ministry of Economy and Finance, the Ministry of Economic Development, the Bank of Italy, the Italian Banking Association, Mediocredito Centrale and Sace. Here the press release by MEF.