#SoseXpress – Press review 12th/18th September

We are still in COVID times, even if we have overcome the most insidious phase. We hope to cover the path we have to face rapidly, but it asks us for recovery. COVID, or rather, the response to COVID, seems to have accelerated already designed or underway processes.

With these words, the President of the Republic, Sergio Mattarella, concluded the meeting with the President of the Federal Republic of Germany, Frank Walter Steinmeier

The Debate of Idea

 

Speech about the State of the Union: The future of the EU, according to Ursula von der Leyen. 

A Union of vitality in a world of fragility is the image described by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, in her first speech about the state of the Union at the European Parliament Plenary. Its evocative title, “Building the world we want to live in,” addressed crucial issues such as the Global Health Summit in Italy, the allocation of 37% of the Recovery Fund to Gree Deal Objectives, and the replacement of the Dublin regulation. Here for the full text.

 

The National Recovery and Resilience Plan: the guidelines were presented.

In coordination with all Ministers and the representatives of Regions and Local Authorities, the interministerial Committee for European affairs approved the core elements of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan guidelines and transmitted the proposal to the Parliament Chambers.

 

Governor Visco speaks about the Italian Economy and banking system.

“The Italian Economy needs an efficient public administration, adequate infrastructures, and investments in innovation and knowledge rather than the support of a powerful public bank.” The Governor of the Bank of Italy concluded his speech with these words addressing the Executive Committee of the Italian Banking Association (ABI). The debate originated from the hypothesis of a public bank in the Country.

 

Web Tax: taxation of web giants to support the "COVID economic victims.

The issue, discussed during the last ECOFIN, aims at a European web tax, and now OECD is studying a supranational solution. In the Country, the debate on the relationship between tax administration and the web giants, among which Facebook, Google, and Amazon, continues. Here, an article takes stock of the issue after that the judicial authority forced the "big-tech companies" to negotiate unpaid taxes (with 42 million euro tax revenues for the Italian tax authority). Here the Oxfam report "Power, profits and pandemic" that after analyzing the increased revenues of big companies, above all web companies, during the lockdown, proposes to tax the extra profits to finance anti-COVID support interventions.

 

StatisticAll, greenligths for the Statistics and Demography Festival.

StatisticAll, the annual festival promoted by SIS (Italian Statistical Society) ISTAT and the “Corrado Gini” Statistical Society, is back. This year the sixth edition of the initiative focuses on the world to come aiming to highlight ideas and measures for recovery. The event will involve statistical experts and economists, philosophers, sociologists, managers, psychoanalysts, innovators, communication, and environment experts.

 

G20: a joint statement of Finance and Health Ministers.

A strong collective action to overcome the crisis is the priority reported in the Finance and Health Ministers' joint statement during the G20 meeting. The note highlights the common goals of research, development, and the distribution of Covid-19 diagnostics and therapeutics and Sars-CoV-2 vaccines. Here the access to the joint declaration.

Studies, researches and numbers

 

OECD medium-term estimates for 2020.

"Restoring confidence in an uncertain recovery" is the last OECD report's title, including the medium-term economic outlook data. According to the Organization, the Italian GDP will decrease by 5,4% in 2021. The global GDP will reduce by 4.5% and the European GDP by 7,9%.

 

Eurostat  Regional Yearbook - 2020 edition.

Eurostat published the 2020 yearbook dedicated to analyzing territories, a tool for understanding and quantifying the impact of public policies in different European areas. Population, health, education, labor market, digital society are some regional indicators. Here the access to the report.

 

The Eurostat update on the European Economy is online.

Eurostat published the September update of the statistics and the analyses concerning the EU economy, in the euro area and the Member States. The report highlights the increase of the Economic Sentiment Indicator in August. .Here the access to the information.

 

ISTAT update on consumer prices.

In August, the Italian consumer price index for the whole nation (NIC) was +0.3% on a monthly basis, including tobacco products, and -0.5% on an annual basis (from -0.4% in the previous month), confirming the flash estimate. ISTAT provided these data in the monthly note on the consumer price index.

 

The quarter joint note on employment is online.

The joint note on employment is available on the websites of the Ministry for Labour, INPS, INAIL, ANPAL, and ISTAT. According to the report, in the second quarter of 2020, the labor input, full-time equivalent jobs, decreased sharply both in the current economic situation (-11,8%) and annually (-17,0%).

 

International tourism, the survey by the Bank of Italy is online.

According to the Bank of Italy statistics on the international touristic flows, in June 2020, international tourism decreased slightly compared to the previous three months. In Italy, foreign tourism expenditure decreased by 77,5%, and the spending by Italian tourists abroad reduced by 71,5%.

 

Signals of a rapid recovery: the annual survey by Mediobanca on financial aggregates of Italian companies is online.

The current health crisis is unprecedented, and it is often compared with the shocks that affected Italy in the mid-Seventies (oil crisis) and in 2008 (Lehman default). Compared to the past, the current crisis has affected the major industrial companies in a situation of a relative advantage as regards their assets (for example, their liquidity and debts) and less as regards the economic profile (for example, the Roi). Some economic indicators show a rapid recovery of economic activities. This information emerges from the annual survey on Italian companies' financial aggregates elaborated by the Mediobanca Research Department.

 

Exports in ISTAT data.

In July 2020, both imports and exports increased.  The growth was more significant for outgoing flows (+5.7%) than for incoming flows (+4.8%). Machinery and equipment n.e.c. (-8,3%), refined petroleum products (48,0%), basic metals and metal products, excluding cars and plants (-9,1%), wearing apparel, also in leather and fur (-15,9%), and leather products (-15,6%) are the sectors that most contributed to export increase.

 

Public finance update: financial needs and debts.

The update of the monthly publication by the Bank of Italy on public finance is online. It includes data concerning the financial needs and the gross debt of public administrations, divided into central, local, and security bodies.

 

The Customs and Monopolies Agency released the 2019 Blue Book.

The Customs and Monopolies Agency released the “2019 Blue Book.” According to the report, in 2017-2019, the total export and import values increased (the first by 5,22%, the second by 7,98%). In the same period, they decreased in terms of quantity (exports by 9,20% and imports by 4,93%). The top non-EU countries from which Italy imported and exported goods are the United States, Switzerland, China, Russia, and Turkey. In 2019 the customs contributed to tax revenues for 16,2 billion euros.

 

OMI (Real Estate Market Observatory) Report: the quarter statistics on real estate market.

According to the Real Estate Market Observatory update published on the Revenue Agency’s website, the residential sector has recorded a negative trend concerning all the cities. The differences are minimal also between territorial areas with a slightly more substantial impact in Mezzogiorno.

 

Mezzogiorno Productivity: with the infrastructures we can do more.

The European funds have fostered the productivity in the Mezzogiorno sightly. However, investments for infrastructures and territories with more efficient institutions and urbanization have produced more significant results. Lavoce.info analyses the investments financed by the European Regional Development Fund – ERDF in 2007-2013 and suggests that increasing infrastructural investments by 10%, the TFP (total factor productivity) will grow by 0,3%.

 

Italian institutional investors: the seventh report is online.

The annual study by Itinerari Previdenziali, analyzing the institutional investors, is online. According to the released data, banking foundations are the first institutional investor in the real economy with a more than double share compared to pension funds.

The voice of stakeholders

 

“Congiuntura flash” by Confindustria: In Italy the recovery is difficult.

In Italy the expected relaunch is partial in the third quarter of 2020 with a slow recovery of domestic demand. Employment is stable and loans for liquidity are increasing with interest rates at pre-Covid level. Eurozone is recovering among lights and shadows, and the uncertainty of Brexit remains.

 

The tenth edition of “Territori 2020” by Confartigianato Department Research is online.

Italian economy trends, also during the Covid-19 crisis, show great territorial differences and characteristics. As regards “Made-in-Italy” sales, in the first six months of 2020, the export trend oscillates between strong decreases in Basilicata (-36,8%) and Sardinia (-35,3%) and the increase of Liguria (+3,7%). The negative performances of Piedmont (-21,2%), Lombardy (-15,3%), Veneto (-14,6%) and Emilia Romagna (-14,2%) explain the 2/3 decrease on annual basis of Italian exports. These data are contained in the report “Territori 2020,” elaborated by Confartigianato Research Department.

 

No Consumption increase: according to Confesercenti, each family has spent 2300 euro less in six months.

According to Confesercenti estimates, consumptions are not recovering, and, after six months from the beginning of lockdown and emergency, the balance is negative. Between March and August of this year, Italian families spent over 2.300 euros less in goods and services than the same period of last year, equal to a 59,2 billion euro loss in sales from the beginning of the COVID crisis.

 

Congiuntura Confcommercio: The third quarter of 2020 is uncertain.

If we compare August 2020 with the same month of 2019, we can see positive goods sales signals in some segments. The recovery registered in the last period cannot compensate for the drop in the demand recorded during the lockdown. In the note on monthly GDP, Confcommercio consumer indicator and price, available here. Confcommercio reveals this information.

 

Holidays at home for 97% of the Italians: the MIBAC-ENIT numbers on tourism are online.

Only 3 Italians out of 100 crossed the border of the Country for their holidays. Twenty-four million tourists traveled by train from the north to the south of the Peninsula, considered safe by 85%.

 

Mechanical engineering industry: companies’ confidence is increasing according to ANIMA-Confindustria.

According to the survey realized by the "Federazione delle Associazioni Nazionali dell' Industria Meccanica Varia e Affine," the mechanical engineering industry is slowly recovering. At the end of May, 45,5% of the interviewed forecast over 20% loss in revenues, now only 29,4% forecast such a drop. Despite a slight improvement, from 72% to 61,7%, more than half of companies are worried about the delayed payments. Confidence in export is improving.

Innovation

 

Simplification Decree: access to the digital services of the Public Administration.

The publication in the Official Gazette concludes the parliamentary process for the conversion of the "Simplification and Digital Innovation Decree," aiming to accelerate Italy's digital transition. Since 28th February, SPID (Public Digital Identity System) and CIE (Electronic Identity Card) will become the only way to access the Public Administration's digital services. 

 

Minister Pisano’s hearing: now the conditions to make up the delays on broadband.

Paola Pisano, Minister of Technological Innovation and Digitalization, held a hearing before the  Chamber Transport Commission to identify the Recovery Fund's priorities. The broadband project's completion, Internet vouchers, digital sovereignty, and the cloud are some themes addressed in the hearing. Here the integral video

 

Cyber security: Accenture warns companies about the risks.

In a recent thematic report, Accenture launches the alert about the cybersecurity risk due to the remote work boom. The survey reveals that only 55% of involved Chief Security Officers (CSO) take into account the implementation of security policies useful to protect Artificial Intelligence technologies, and the share decreases as regards 5G (36%9, Extended Reality (32%), and the Quantum Computing (29%).

The World of MEF

 

Recovery Fund: Minister Gualtieri's hearing to define priorities.

The Next Generation EU is a unique opportunity for Italy and Europe to go out an unpreceded period of stagnation and crisis.  Minister Gualtieri addressed this theme in a hearing before the joint Budget and Finance Committees aimed to identify the priorities in allocating the funds. Here, the full speech.

 

The priorities in allocating the Recovery Fund resources: the Revenue Agency’s opinion.

During his hearing before the Finance Committee of the Chamber, Ernesto Maria Ruffini, Revenue Agency Director, explained the priorities in allocating the Recovery Fund resources concerning the taxation system. Tax system digitalization, an algorithm to prevent evasion, cash flow tax affecting about 4 million taxpayers in terms of simplification are some of the addressed issues.

 

Fondo Patrimonio PMI: Invitalia launched the new tool for companies’ relaunch.

The "Fondo Patrimonio PMI" has a fund of 4 billion euros, approved by MEF, to support the enterprises that, by 19th May 2020, increased the capital by at least 250 thousand euros.

 

Relaunch Decree: the support to SMEs’ capitalization.

Besides general measures, the Relaunch Decree includes provisions based on companies’ turnovers to support SMEs’ capitalization. Here the MEF note with a detailed description, and here an infographic posted on Twitter.

 

Report on tax revenues and security contributions from January to July 2020.

The update on tax revenues and security contributions in the first seven months of 2020 elaborated by MEF is online. The report highlights an overall decrease of 8,3% (-33.425 million euro) compared to the same period of 2019. The datum considers the 7,8%  reduction (-20.605 million euros) in tax revenues and 9,3% reduction  (-12.820 million euros) in security contributions.

 

Liquidity implementation task force update.

The applications for moratoriums on loans are still numerous, over 2,7 million for a value of about 301 billion euros and the applications for guarantees on new bank loans submitted by MSMEs to the Central Guarantee Fund for SMEs exceeded 80 billion euros. The “Garanzia Italia” of SACE granted guarantees for 13,3 billion euros, based on 531 applications received.