#SoseXpress - Press Review 22/28 january 2022

Why diversity? Why the women on board? Because all the research and economic studies show that companies that embrace diversity are more successful. This is true in business, politics and society as a whole.  

The President of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Layen, on the occasion of the European Women on Boards' Gender Diversity Award.   

The Debate of Ideas  

Need for realism in reforming the Stability Pact  

On 19 October, the European Commission launched a public consultation on the reform of the Stability Pact, in order to stimulate public debate and acquire a degree of awareness of perceptions and orientations on the subject. There is therefore a return to reform of the Stability and Growth Pact and how to equip the European economy for the challenges of the future. A debate that is not easy, but decisive. The key issue is the economic capacity of European countries to meet the challenges of transforming economies in the green and digital direction, climate change emergencies, reducing inequalities, the necessary increase in the socio-economic resilience capacity of our countries. All these factors require, and will increasingly require, major investments and reforms in the near future. But we must not forget that we must also convince the financial markets of the sustainability of the choices that will be made because without their consent the new Stability Pact alone will not stand.  

Studies, research and numbers  

Confindustria: high energy, risk slowed down in the first quarter, -0.8% of GDP in 2022  

"With the current abnormal energy prices, eroded margins, commodity scarcity and the increase in infections, the risk is that GDP suffers a stop in the 1st quarter: at least -0.8% of the impact of high-energy on GDP in 2022". We are witnessing a "high-risk ascent. At the beginning of 2022 the clouds became thicker, already thickened at the end of 2021 on the rise of Italian GDP, estimated to have slowed down in the fourth quarter". The alarm was raised by the Centro Studi di Confindustria, which pointed out that the increase in energy prices affects Italian industry, while the high levels of contamination are slowing down the consumption of services. 

Bank of Italy: 7,400 companies failed in 2020, less than the pre-Covid period  

The Covid-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the Italian economy, with a decline in GDP of 8.9% in 2020. However, compared to 2019, there have been fewer bankruptcies and, more generally, fewer exits from the business market: in 2020, a liquidation procedure was initiated for just under 7,400 companies, compared to almost 11,000 in 2019 (a decline of about a third). This was communicated by the Bank of Italy with the note "The impact of Covid-19 on bankruptcies and exits from the market of Italian companies". This reduction, it says, is "attributable to a wide range of support measures adopted by the government". In the absence of intervention, according to the elaboration of some scenarios of evolution of short-term failures, the number could have exceeded 12,000 units, almost 4,800 more than those actually observed.   

Eurozone, SME indices: Omicron scares the tertiary sector, relaunching manufacturing  

According to preliminary estimates by IHS Markit, the manufacturing SME index increased in January to 59 points from the previous 58 points, reaching over 57,5 points expected by analysts. On the other hand, the SME for services is decreasing to 51,2 points compared to 53,1 points and 52,2 points expected. As a result, the composite SME rose to 52,4 points from the previous 53,3 points (it was expected to reach 52,6 points). In essence, the growth of the eurozone economy slowed for the second consecutive month due to the spread of the Omicron variant, but the manufacturing sector continued to grow due to the reduction of supply constraints.   

Business networks: presented the 3 st. Report  

The 3rd Report of the National Observatory on Business Networks, presented by Confindustria and attended by Infocamere, Retimpresa and the Management Department of Ca' Foscari University of Venice, provided a photograph in which the networks are confirmed to be decisive in tackling the pandemic and accompanying economic recovery. In 2021 network contracts increased by 13.3% in Italy (+885 new contracts compared to 2020) and network companies by 10% (+3,849 compared to 2020); the "contract networks" (85%) remain prevalent. In total, at 31 December 2021 there were 42,232 network companies for a total of 7,541 network contracts. The companies most involved in network contracts belong to three sectors: agri-food (22%), trade (14%) and construction (12%).

The IMF revised downwards the growth of Italy for 2022: + 3.8%, -0.4% compared to October estimates  

The International Monetary Fund has revised downwards the forecast on Italian GDP growth for 2022, cutting it by 0.4 percentage points to +3.8%. This is what emerges from the Update of the World Economic Outlook, which updates the estimates spread in October. For 2023, the forecast is revised upwards of 0.6 percentage points and is now set at +2.2%. Inflation and the Omicron variant weigh on the euro area economy as well as on the global economy, warns the IMF, which has revised the growth of the eurozone to 3.9% from the 4.3% of the October estimate.   

Istat: in 2021 extra EU exports +16.3%, above 2019 levels  

For December 2021, ISTAT noted, for trade with non-EU countries27, an economic downturn for exports (-2.1%) and an increase for imports (+4.3%). The drop in exports on a monthly basis affects all the main industrial groups, underlines Istat, with the exception of non-durable consumer goods (+5.8%), and is determined in particular by the decline in sales of energy (-27.3%) and capital goods (-3.9%). On the import side, there are widespread economic increases, except for energy (-1.1%). In the October-December 2021 quarter, exports grew by 0.5% compared to the previous quarter. In the same period, the import marks an economic increase of 7.8%. In December 2021, exports grew by 12.6% on an annual basis, while imports grew by 45.8%. The estimate of the trade balance in December 2021 was +4,737 million, down on December 2020 (+7,972). 

Inapp: Over 7.2 million employees work remotely, 61% of these at least 3 days   

The numbers contained in the INAPP survey on a sample of 45 thousand interviews conducted between March and July 2021, reveal that there were about 7.2 million workers who last year worked remotely. 46% of workers, in anticipation of a return to "normality" would like this possibility to be maintained for at least one day a week. The hybrid form, ie work in presence and agile mode, prevailed reaching 32.7% of workers, of which about 40% between the PA and 31% among private individuals. Now the key issue is how to move from remote emergency work to new work organization models associated with innovative re-engineering of production processes.  

Istat: Industry, November turnover up 2.4% compared to October  

In November, the industry’s turnover, net of seasonal factors, increased by 2.4% compared to October, with a positive trend both on the domestic market (+2.2%) and on the foreign market (+2.7%). Istat recognises this by adding that the total turnover grows in trend terms by 22.2%. In the average of the quarter September-November, the overall index recorded an increase of 3.5% compared to the previous three months (+4.7% on the domestic market and +1.5% on the foreign market). With reference to the main groups of industries, in November the seasonally adjusted indices of turnover show a cyclical increase for all the main sectors: energy (+4%), intermediate goods (+3.1%), consumer goods (+2.4%) and capital goods (+1.1%).   

Bankitalia - Istat: household wealth growing in 2020  

At the end of 2020 the net wealth of Italian households amounted to 10,010 billion €, 8.7 times their disposable income, recording an increase of 1% (about 100 billion) compared to 2019. This is what the joint note Banca d'Italia-Istat, on the wealth of institutional sectors in Italy, notes. Net household wealth is measured as the sum of real assets (housing, land, etc.) and financial assets (deposits, securities, shares, etc.) net of financial liabilities (short-term, medium- and long-term loans, etc.). In 2020, real assets (6,177 billion) accounted for 56% of gross wealth (total assets) and financial assets (4,800 billion) the remaining 44%, compared to 967 billion in financial liabilities, the latter being almost stable compared to 2019. In comparison with some advanced economies, the note notes, the net wealth of Italian households remains high when compared to gross disposable income while it is among the lowest when compared to the population.  

EIB Group: record lending in Italy in 2021  

In 2021, the EIB Group, consisting of the European Investment Bank and the European Investment Fund, announced that it had signed 122 operations in Italy providing a record financing of €13.5 billion, an increase of 13.5% compared to the 2020 results. Italy benefited from 15.6% of the Group’s total activity in 2021, the EIB points out, estimating that this activity will contribute to more than €76.3 billion in investment in the real economy, an increase of 135% compared to the previous year, the equivalent of 43% of Italian GDP. Over half of the EIB Group’s loans, 6.86 billion, went to small and medium-sized enterprises (Smes). The European Guarantee Fund (EGF), approved as an integral part of the €540 billion package of measures by the European Union to avoid economic difficulties and production delays pandemic, will activate in Italy for €36.7 billion.

Eurostat: Real per capita household consumption increases both in the euro area and in the EU

Eurostat reports that in the third quarter of 2021, real per capita household consumption increased by 4.1% in the euro area, after increasing by 3.6% in the previous quarter. Real per capita household income increased slightly in the third quarter of 2021 by 0.1%, after an increase of 1.1% in the second quarter. In the EU, Eurostat notes, real per capita consumption of households increased by 4.1% in the third quarter of 2021, after an increase of 3.4% in the previous quarter. At the same time, real per capita household income increased by 0.9% in the third quarter of 2021, after an increase of 0.5% in the second quarter of 2021.

Istat, to January the confidence of the enterprises is to minimums from nine months  

The Business Confidence Index suffers a "resolute downsizing to the lowest value of the last nine months". This was announced by Istat in the dissemination of data on trust in Italy in the first month of 2022. For January, the Statistical Office estimates a decrease in both the consumer confidence index (117.7 to 114.2) and the composite business confidence index (112.7 to 105.4). All components of the consumer confidence index are decreasing, especially those related to the economic climate (the index goes from 139.6 to 129.7) and to the future climate (from 120.8 to 113.5). The decrease is limited for the personal component (from 110,4 to 109,0) and for the current one (from 115,6 to 114,7). In terms of companies, the confidence index is decreasing in all sectors, albeit with different intensities. 

The Voice of the Stakeholders 

Unioncamere: enterprises, 332 thousand new registrations in 2021. But we are not yet at the pre-dawn values  

The improvement in the outlook for the economy is confirmed by the data on the creation of new businesses, but we have not yet returned to the pre-pandemic values. This is what emerges from the statistical analysis carried out by Unioncamere and Infocamere. The year 2021 ended with a renewed impetus of entrepreneurial activities that, between January and December, registered 332,596 new registrations (14% more than the previous year).  After the braking imposed in 2020 by the lockdown and the acute phase of the Covid emergency, the rebound of the birth rate has not coincided with a full recovery of the pre-pandemic, maintaining a gap of about 20 thousand openings less than in 2019 and about 50 thousand less than the average decade ante-Covid. 

Ali-Confcommercio: Italian bookshops ok in 2021, but it remains the "knot" school  

During 2021, over 50% of bookstores reported an increase in customers entering stores and an increase in books (also in value) purchased, compared to the year of the pandemic. According to the Observatory on bookshops in Italy 2021, carried out by the Associazione Librai Italiani (Ali-Confcommercio), in collaboration with Format Research, the economic performance of companies improves compared to pre- levelscrisis, from 38 points in 2019 to 50 at the end of 2021. Bookshops have also sometimes increased their staff and improved their ability to meet financial needs. 

CNA: high-energy, "dramatic surge in bills impacts on 95% of businesses"  

The rise in bills in the last part of the year caused spending in the average of 2021 by over 30% compared to 2019 for the construction and transport sectors, only the tourism sector shows an increase of less than 20%. For the current year, the outlook is for new sharp rises considering that the prices of the first quarter show a jump of 112% compared to the same period of 2019. This is what emerges from a survey carried out by the CNA Study Centre at about 2,500 companies, a representative sample of the productive reality of crafts and small businesses. The survey shows that 95% of companies believe that the high-cost bills will have a strong impact on their business, only 5% indicate that there will be no significant effects.

Confartigianato: inflation rises and slows recovery in 2022   

Strong tensions on non-energy commodities, recorded by companies, whose prices in December 2021 grow by 33.8% in trend view; a direct consequence is the increase in import prices net of energy which, in November 2021 increase by 8,2% in trend optics. The strong push on costs is reducing companies' margins and leads to a rise in producer prices that in November 2021, net of energy, rose by 8.9%, an unprecedented rate of change from the beginning of the current historical series in 2001. This is what emerges from the 17 Confartigianato Report on the turbulence of prices that is involving Italian companies. The Report also points out that the spread of the new variant Omicron Covid-19, the disruptions of global supply chains, associated with the boom in the prices of raw materials and energy products, have led to higher than expected inflation, slowing the pace of recovery. 

Innovation 

 

Ultrabroadband, Italy at 47 a.s. place in the world’s fiber ranking  

 By 2026, the percentage of the world’s population connected to the Internet will increase from 58% to 70%, according to the Omdia Global Fiber Development Index. By 70%, 30% of the population will have access to the Internet via a mobile device and 40% will have a home fixed broadband connection. Although the connectivity gap is narrowing, the inequalities of speed and service are unfortunately widening. Out of 81 countries, Italy has 47 places in the so-called cluster 2, that of the "Movers and Shakers". Singapore on the podium followed by South Korea, United Arab Emirates, China and Qatar. United States in 18th position. The first European countries are Spain and Sweden followed by Luxembourg and Romania. 

 Cybercrime: record data breaches in 2021  

2021 was a record year in terms of the size of data breaches. According to data collected and analyzed by the Atlas Vpn team, 5.9 billion accounts were affected in 2021. Altogether, 357 million and 93 million accounts were affected by data leaks in the third and fourth quarters. February, in particular, saw the biggest data breach of all time: the so-called "Compilation of many breaches" (Comb) proved responsible for the escape of as many as 3.2 billion unique combinations of e-mails and passwords with unencrypted text. 

European Commission: aid to Italy for €3.8 billion for broadband development from PNRR  

The EU commission announces to have approved of, according to the norms of the EU in matter of aids of State, a regime from 3,8 billion euros that Italy has put to disposition through the Pnrr, for the deployment of high-performance gigabit networks in areas of the country where they do not currently exist nor are planned networks capable of providing a download rate of at least 300 megabits per second (Mbps). The measure is part of a comprehensive strategy that Italy has put in place to meet the needs of citizens and businesses in the context of digitisation of the country and will also contribute to achieving the EU’s strategic objectives for digital transition.

POLIMI-OSSERVATORI.NET: tourism in Italy, in 2021 the digital travel market is back to grow  

 In Italy the digital travel market is growing again in 2021, exceeding 11 billion € (+55% compared to a year ago but still -32% compared to 2019). In 2021, the total market of Travel (online + offline) grew both in the receptive component (9.5 billion €, +73% on 2020 and close to 10.3 billion in 2019) and in that of transport (8.5 billion, +33% on 2020 but still far from 18 billion pre-Covid). In this scenario, even digital transactions have shown a clear recovery, reaching 11.1 billion € (+55% on 2020), despite the overall value still shows a -32% compared to 2019. These are some of the data that emerged from the eighth edition of the Digital Innovation in Tourism Observatory of the School of Management of Politecnico di Milano, on the occasion of the conference "Travel Innovation Day".

Gender Equity

Digital economy: gender gap, budget back to red  

The pandemic crisis widens the gap between gender inequality. The president of the EU Commission has recently declared that only 7% of the big European companies are led by a woman, while for the Undersecretary al Mef, Guerra: "The curve of the female employment rate goes down". Finally, a study by Digitally warns: "Girls more predisposed to e-skills, but penalized by job selection". According to the Gender Diversity Index, however, of the more than 600 companies in the index, only 35% of board members are women. Ten years have passed since the Commission set the target of 40% women on the boards of European listed companies. "And for 10 years, our efforts to implement European legislation have been blocked," von der Leyen says. The survey carried out by Digitally, examined 1500 junior figures, called to answer a Digital Assessment test. 70% of the female cluster achieved the highest scores, compared to 65% of the male cluster. But looking at the technical skills most often acquired in the company, things change. In fact, if the results in the field of digital strategy are similar to the first work experiences, around 30 years tend to be superior among men. A fact that makes you reflect on gender stereotypes, which often influence selection and growth processes at the beginning of your career.

Women’s income: always a step back for men  

 Step back from female employment. For women, the pandemic was a severe blow on the job front with women’s employment at 49%, increasing the distance with men by 18.2 points less. The worst figure since 2013. Inequality between men and women is not only about wages, but also incomes, especially the highest ones. And the tax system does not encourage women’s participation in the labour market. This is what can be seen from the Gender Report published by the Accounting Board of the State.

Local authorities

Digital PA 2026: the point of access to resources for the digital transition of PA  

At the start the platform Digital Pa 2026 through which public administrations will be able to request the funds of the PNRR dedicated to digitization, report the progress of projects and receive assistance. The initiative promoted by the Department for Digital Transformation of the Presidency of the Council of Ministers, is aimed at supporting administrations to understand in detail the great opportunities of digitalization that will have in the spring of 2022 a key moment, with the publication of the first notices of the PNRR dedicated to the digitalization of the PA. The investments planned by the PNRR for the digitization of the PA are made available through 14 measures, for a total of over 6 billion €. 

Pnrr: CDP publishes a study on the needs of the territories for school building  

"What is the state of the buildings housing public schools? What are the most widespread shortcomings and how much money does the PNRR allocate to retraining and securing?" A new CDP study entitled "School building and territory: where are the greatest needs?" has been promoted to obtain these answers. The analysis focuses on the "structural endowment" of Italian schools, the presence of heating systems, the overcoming of tectonic barriers, the reduction of energy consumption and seismic design. School buildings with major deficiencies are located in the most peripheral areas and in municipalities with a more difficult financial situation. The main problems are concentrated in the South and concern the absence of measures to reduce energy consumption. According to the study, the resources provided by the NRNRP should focus on environmental sustainability, safety and structural adequacy of school buildings. Amounting to € 5.4 billion, will be allocated € 3.9 billion for the redevelopment and safety of 2,400,000 square meters. of the Building Heritage, € 800 million for the construction of new schools and € 700 million for the upgrading of canteens and gyms. 

 Support for enterprise measures  

The decree-law approved by the Council of Ministers introduced new support to the activities most affected by the emergency Covid and interventions to counter the increase in the cost of energy bills for businesses. In particular, some EUR 390 million has been earmarked for measures to support retail, entertainment and textile activities, while against the high energy was approved a package of measures calibrated towards the production chains that risk more interruption of activities. 

Mondo MEF  

Mef, rises to about 223 billion the value of requests to the SME Guarantee Fund  

Guarantee applications for new bank financing for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises submitted to the Guarantee Fund for Smes rise to some 223 billion. Through "Guarantee Italia" of Sace, the volumes of guaranteed loans reach 32.4 billion euros, out of 4,384 requests received. These are the main findings of the survey carried out by the task force set up to promote the implementation of the liquidity support measures adopted by the Government to cope with the emergency Covid-19, of which Mef, Mise, Banca d'Italia, are part, ABI, Mediocredito Centrale and Sace. Mise and Mediocredito Centrale also report that there are 2,591,426 requests for guarantees received by the Guarantee Fund in the period from 17 March 2020 to 25 January 2022 to request guarantees for loans to businesses, craftsmen, self-employed and professionals, for a total amount of more than EUR 222,9 billion.