#SoseXpress - Press Review 23/29 October 2021

There is no growth without social cohesion; there is no growth without equity. 

The Prime Minister, Mario Draghi, during the press conference after the approval of the 2022 Budget Law. 

The debate of ideas 

 

The contribution of immigrants to the public budget 

Do the immigrants legally resident in Italy produce more costs or more benefits? According to several studies, immigrants are essential for our social security system, which, without them, would risk collapse. In addition, taxes and social security contributions paid by immigrants far exceed public spending for immigration. Some figures put the so-called "immigration emergency" in the right perspective: taxes and social security contributions paid by foreign workers largely offset the costs incurred by the public administration for foreigners residing in Italy.. Here the article published on La Voce.info. 

Studies, research and numbers 

 

Istat: in the third quarter, GDP up by 2.6%, growth at 6.1% in 2021 

In the third quarter, GDP increased by 2.6% compared to the previous quarter and by 3.8% on an annual basis. For 2021 Istat estimates an increase of 6.1 per cent. The statistical institute highlights that the sustained growth of the Italian economy is the result of the strong recovery in the market services sector, most penalized by the crisis, and the manufacturing growth for the second consecutive month. Here the Note of Istat. 

The Bank of Italy: bank deposits up by € 1,700 per capita in 2020 

"In 2020, the incomes of the private non-financial sectors in the euro area recorded the strongest contraction in the last twenty years, only partially countered by the support measures introduced by public administrations." According to the latest Note Covid 19, "Economic and financial flows between institutional sectors in the euro area countries during the pandemic" by the Bank of Italy, the euro area household deposits increased by € 2,000 per capita, with amounts above the average in Germany and France (€ 2,500 and € 2,400 respectively) and below the average in Italy and Spain (€ 1,700 and € 1,500 respectively). At the end of 2020, bank deposits were 34.2% of households' financial wealth (including liabilities). Here the analysis by the Bank of Italy. 

Istat: Foreign trade with non-EU countries up by 5.1% in September  

In September, exports grew by 5.1% on an annual basis. The widespread increase is particularly significant in the energy sector (+ 103.9%). At the same time, Istat highlights that imports are recording double-digit growth: + 32.9%. The increase concerns all sectors, mainly energy (+ 102.4%) and durable consumer goods ( + 49.8%). In September, the trade balance registered a surplus of +1,671 million in 2021, down compared to September 2020 (+5,273). Here the Note by Istat. 

Eurostat: decline in employment in the second quarter of 2021 

Unemployment was the main component of the slowdown in the labour market for all EU Member States in the second quarter of 2021. Eurostat underlines that unmet demand for employment amounted to 14.5% of the labour force (15-74 years), and unemployed people accounted for almost half of the decline in the labour market (7.0% of the extended labour force in the EU). In Italy, "persons available to work but not seeking employment' represent 11.5% of the extended workforce and have contributed significantly to the stagnation of the labour market. Here the Eurostat press release. 

In September, large-scale online sales exceeded expectations 

In September, the online large-scale retail trade turnover reached 148 million euros, with a growth of 27% compared to the same period of 2020. In the survey carried out for OsservaItalia, Iri highlights that in the first nine months of 2021, the sector produced a turnover of 1.25 billion euros, only 80 million lower than last year's total turnover. The estimated year-on-year increase is 40%. Delivery services also show excellent and stable performances. According to the report, the Click & Collect service is three times more effective than home delivery. Here for more information. 

Intesa SanPaolo: manufacturing after the pre-covid era, record turnover in 2023 

The manufacturing industry continues to grow, reaching the pre-Covid levels at the end of the year with an increase in sales of 11.2% at constant prices (0.8% before the pandemic) and 20.6% at current prices. (+ 9.3% on 2019). These data emerge from the Report on industrial sectors carried out by Intesa Sanpaolo in collaboration with Prometeia. According to the Report, the growth in manufacturing activity will be robust over the next two years, with an average annual rate of 4.2% at constant prices. By the end of 2023, the deflated turnover will increase by 9.4% compared to the pre-Covid period. The turnover at current prices will reach the record figure of 1,135 billion euros in 2023 (+196 billion compared to 2019). Here to learn more. 

Istat: confidence climate weakens among consumers but improves among businesses  

In October, the confidence climate index decreased among consumers (119.6 to 118.4) and increased among businesses (113.7 to 115). According to Istat, the current climate recorded the most marked decline (from 116.1 to 113.7) while the economic and personal climate went down from 143.6 to 142.2 and from 111.5 to 110.4, respectively. Only the future climate showed an improvement passing from 124.7 to 125.4. As for the businesses confidence climate index, the manufacturing sector increased from 113.2 to 114.9, and construction from 155.5 to 159.2. Here the Note by Istat. 

Market Watch PMI by Banca Ifis: SMEs team up to strengthen the supply chain and grow abroad 

Italian SMEs focus on the collaboration of an increasingly technological supply chain, including short distribution chains, trade credit to customers and suppliers, new digital platforms to promote integration between companies. According to the latest Banca Ifis survey, Market Watch PMI, the pandemic has highlighted this widespread trend as the strength of Made in Italy throughout the country. In collaboration with Format Research, the Bank surveyed a sample of over 500 small and medium-sized Italian companies. The study highlighted that the pandemic had not affected the strength of Italian products on foreign markets, which, however, are and will remain mainly anchored to the European market over the next few years.. Here for more information. 

Istat: in September, industrial producer prices up by 13.3%  

In September, industrial producer prices increased by 1.6% on a monthly basis and by 13.3% on an annual basis. On the domestic market, prices increased by 1.9% compared to August and by 15.6% on an annual basis. Except for energy products, prices increased by 0.9% month on month and 7.8% year on year. In the July-September 2021 quarter, industrial producer prices grew by 5.1%compared to the previous quarter. The economic growth was stronger on the domestic market (+ 6.2%) than on the foreign market (+ 2.7%).  The most marked year-on-year increases concern coke and refined petroleum products (+ 37.3% on the domestic market, + 57.2% in the non-euro area), metallurgy and fabricated metal product manufacturing (+ 21.9% on the domestic market, +32.8 % in the euro area, + 24.3% in the non-euro area). Here the Note by Istat. 

 

The voice of Stakeholders 

 

Coldiretti: 52 billion, a record for Italian food abroad 

According to the analysis carried out by Coldiretti based on Istat data on foreign trade in the first eight months of 2021, the “Made in Italy” food will record a historical record in exports reaching 52 billion if the 13% increase continues. A considerable result, if we consider the difficulties of trade, the lockdown in all catering activities worldwide, and the unbearable spread of imitations of our products worldwide. The United States are among the main customers of Made in Italy food and rank second with an increase of 3% in July. The trend was also positive in Germany, ranking first among the countries importing Italian food with an increase of 9%. Here to learn more. 

Coldiretti: the food industry is the first resource in Italy, 575 billion euros (+ 7%), 1/4 of GDP 

According to Coldiretti, in 2021, food has become Italy's first economic resource with a value of € 575 billion, increased by 7% compared to 2020 despite the difficulties due to the pandemic. In the second year of Covid, the Italian agri-food chain has demonstrated a high capacity for resilience, with a turnover increase in agriculture, manufacturing and large-scale distribution. The catering industry is starting to grow again after a disastrous 2020. Made in Italy food is now worth almost a quarter of the national GDP employing 4 million workers in 740.00 farms, 70.000 food industries, over 330.000 catering companies and 230.000 retail outlets. Here for more information 

 

Innovation

IT revolution: investments focus on "in-house", turnover up to 4.5 trillion dollars in 2022 

According to Gartner's latest forecast, global IT spending will grow by 5.5% in 2022 compared to 2021, for a total value of $ 4.5 trillion. Companies will focus more on internal innovation than on purchases from external suppliers, which are experiencing a slowdown compared to the growth recorded from 2020 to 2021 (9.5%). However, the report continues, initiatives related to digital technologies remain a strategic priority for companies at this stage in which they are "reinventing the future of work". According to Gartner, Enterprise software is the IT segment that will experience the most significant development: + 11.5% in 2022, for a value of almost 670 billion, driven by investments in infrastructure software, which will overcome those for application software. Here to learn more. 

Assintel: the ICT market continues to grow and exceeds 34 billion euros 

The Information & Communications Technology (ICT) market will end 2021 with an expenditure of € 34.4 billion, up by 4.1% compared to 2020. This data emerges from the research carried out by Assintel (National Association of ICT Companies) and the independent research company IDC Italia, with the sponsorship of Confcommercio, Grenke and Intesa Sanpaolo. According to the report, the growth in ICT spending will consolidate in 2022, exceeding € 35 billion and will reach € 36.4 billion in 2023, with an average annual growth of 3.3%. However, the report highlights that a significant share of companies (32%) have reduced or postponed investments for innovation. The NRRP aims to involve these companies through relaunch projects at the local level.. Here for more information. 

Crif: the boom of personal data stolen on the web (+ 56.3% compared to 2020) 

According to the Crif Cyber Observatory, Italian users received over 1 million alerts in the first half of the year due to a cyber attack against their personal data, up by 56.3% compared to the previous survey. The analysis focuses on alerts relating to the dark web (i.e. web environments that do not appear through normal Internet browsing activities and require specific browsers or targeted searches) where billions of data circulate illegitimately. In the first half of 2021, the data on the dark web increased by 18% compared to the second half of 2020. These environments contain the greatest number of information used for cyber frauds, and the Italian users alerted about the data collected on the dark web are 72.9%. In comparison, those alerted about data collected on the public web are only 27.1% (open web). Here for more information. 

 

Gender equity 

 

Fondimpresa, scientific skills and gender gap, the role of training in companies 

“Competenze scientifiche e gender gap, il ruolo della formazione nelle aziende (Scientific skills and gender gap, the role of training in companies)” is the title of the webinar organized and promoted by Fondimpresa. The impact of Digital Transformation will play a decisive role in the future needs of Italian companies. However, to date, there are still few women with technology roles. This event is the occasion for Fondimpresa to illustrate its commitment to overcoming gender diversity in scientific disciplines producing the most requested skills in the labour market today. Thanks to continuous training, women and workers, in general, can improve their skills and facilitate their access to the world of work and tech jobs relating to digital skills that were before inaccessible for them. Here for more information. 

Local Authorities 

 

Micro and small enterprises penalized in public tenders 

In Lazio, SMEs win less than 20% of tenders over one million euros, risking being cut off from the National Recovery and Resilience Plan because they are not competitive enough. Moreover, micro-small enterprises with up to 19 employees win only 14% of the contracts with a value between 1 and 5 million. On the other hand, the share increases to 83% for contracts under 40 thousand euros. These results emerge from a study by Unindustria, "Contracts for MPMI 4.0", carried out with the University of Tor Vergata and Promo P.A. Foundation. Here to learn more. 

Recovery plan: green light from the Council of Ministers to local authorities' "flag" projects   

The Council of Ministers gave the green light to the new decree-law "Urgent provisions for the implementation of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan and for the prevention of mafia infiltrations". Each region and province will have a "flag project" with "particular strategic importance." It will be consistent with the lines of the NRP and will be supported by a new body coordinating local institutions and the central government. The body is set up in the department for regional affairs and autonomies of the presidency of the council of ministers and will be operational until 31 December 2026. Here to learn more. 

 

The world of MEF 

Budget Law 2022, green light from the Council of Ministers 

The Council of Ministers approved the 2022 budget law, consisting of 185 articles. The various measures contained in the budget law affect workers, businesses, families and young people and regard pensions, the minimum income guaranteed by the state (refinanced and modified), leave for fathers, renewal of building bonuses, funds for health and local authorities. The Minister of Economy and Finance, Daniele Franco, explained that the manoeuvre provides about 30 billion for the next three years. "The economic growth can help us to overcome many problems such as public debt, inadequate social benefits and other necessary changes to our social system that we have not been able to make in past years. The country will grow well, over 6%, and this is the compass and the 'strategy adopted by this government ". Furthermore, the Minister of Economy specified that the expected GDP growth next year is 4.7% compared to the previous estimate of 4.1%. Here the press release of the Presidency of the Council of Ministers. 

Recovery, a committee for the spending review at Mef 

The Ministry of Economic and Finance has strengthened its role in monitoring and evaluating expenditure to support other central administrations by establishing a "Scientific Committee for the revision of public spending."  The committee, chaired by the State Accountant General, aims to use the recovery plan resources more efficiently, dusting off the old "spending review." Executives of the interested ministries, a member of Mef technical secretariat and representatives of Bankitalia, Istat, and "Corte dei Conti," will be coordinated by the accounting office. The committee will operate according to the guidelines established by the Prime Minister and will report to the Minister of Economy". Here for more information on “Il Sole24Ore. 

Mef: analysing tax revenue and electronic invoicing data 

According to the Finance Department, in the period January-August 2021, total tax revenues amounted to 302,180 million euros (+30,614 million euros, equal to + 11.3%), of which Direct taxes for 167,237 million euros (+7,548 million euros, equal to + 4.7%) and indirect taxes for 134,943 million euros (+23,066 million euros, equal to + 20.6% ). In the first seven months of 2021, the VAT base estimated through electronic invoicing grew by 20.1% compared to the same period of 2020. The increase was more significant for individuals (+ 22%) than legal entities (+ 20%). Here more information on the Finance Department website.