#SoseXpress - Press Review 27 February/5 March 2021

By 2030, at least 78% of European adults should be employed. And this can only be achieved by having more women in the labour marketwere the words pronounced by Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, at the meeting organized by the European Parliament on the International Women's Day.  

The Debate of Ideas 

 

It is necessary to avoid dangerous delays for the Next Generation Eu 

By April 2021, it is necessary to define the projects on which to allocate the Next Generation EU resources, an ambitious recovery package that, if used strategically, will be lifeblood for the economy. Especially in Italy, one of the countries most affected by the pandemic. Christine Lagarde also underscored the absolute need to invest the Next Generation EU funds in a timely manner. Making this recovery plan truly effective also means raising awareness and empowering citizens through simple and centralized procedures. Riccardo Crescenzi, Mara Giua and Giulia Valeria Sonzogno express their opinion in this article on LaVoce.info. 

The role of local authorities in the Italian Recovery and Resilience Plan: the projects will involve several lines of intervention

How to help the South to spend the RRP resources? Will municipal administrations be able to implement all funded projects, meeting the requirements of the European Union? ANCI (National Association of Italian municipalities) asked these questions in the report concerning the RRP proposals submitted to the Budget Commission of the Chamber of Deputies. According to the latest draft of the RRP, municipalities will play a leading role in implementing interventions in various areas: social assistance, disability, marginalization, the energy efficiency of public buildings, the sustainability of local transport, digitalisation, and modernisation of the PA. 

Studies, research and numbers 

 

Ihs Markit PMI, the Italian manufacturing at the highest levels for three years in the Eurozone 

In February, the Italian manufacturing PMI index rose to 56.9% from 55.1% in January, reaching its highest levels for over three years. The data confirmed the growth of manufacturing in the country and is slightly higher than analysts' expectations (56.8%). The indicator elaborated by Ihs Markit showed continuous growth for the eighth month. A score above 50 represents the demarcation threshold between the expansion and contraction of the cycle.  

Istat, the public debt in 2020 rose by over 20 points to 155.6% of GDP

The General Government net borrowing rose from 134.6% of GDP in 2019 to 155.6% in 2020 due to the pandemic crisis. Istat reported these data in the tables on public accounts, based on the statistics relating to public debt realized by the Bank of Italy. General Government net borrowing was 9.5% of GDP, compared to 1.6% in 2019.  According to ISTAT estimates, the primary balance was -6% of GDP (+ 1.8% in 2019). 

Istat: in February, inflation up by 0.1% on a monthly basis and by 0.6% on an annual basis 

According to Istat preliminary estimates, the national consumer price index recorded an increase of 0.1% on a monthly basis and 0.6% on an annual basis (from + 0.4% in January). The consumer price index slowed down slightly (from + 0.4% to + 0.3%). Inflation grew in February for the second consecutive month. 

The Censis report on tourism: in the first 11 months of 2020, -52.2% of presences in accommodation facilities 

The perfect storm of the pandemic hit tourism. In the first 11 months of 2020, presences in accommodation facilities decreased by approximately 219 million units compared to 2019: -52.2%, despite the partial recovery recorded last summer. The contraction was even more significant in the foreign component: -68.9% between January and October 2020. Last year, transit passengers in national airports decreased overall by 72.6%: -61.3% in domestic flights, -78.4% in international. Censis revealed these data in the fourth Agi-Censis report dedicated to tourism during the pandemic. 

Eurostat, euro area annual inflation stable at 0.9% 

According to the Eurostat flash estimate, Eurozone annual inflation remained stable at + 0.9% in February 2021 compared to January. Consumer prices recorded a 0.2% increase on a monthly basis. Core inflation is estimated at 1.1%, rising by 0.1% on a monthly basis. 

IMF, the risk of bankruptcy is growing in Europe

The IMF (International Monetary Fund), including 26 European countries (21 EU members), estimated that, without containment policies, the share of companies with liquidity problems and insolvent companies in Europe would have doubled by the end of 2020. According to the IMF, public support has so far covered 60% of European companies' liquidity needs due to Covid. 

The Bank of Italy, € -coin remains stable in February 

In February, the € -coin index remains practically unchanged at 0.96 (0.99 in January), confirming the gradual recovery of the underlying dynamics of the euro area economy. The indicator provides a summary index of the current economic situation in the euro area, estimating the quarterly GDP growth. Here the note from the Bank of Italy. 

Istat, GDP decreased by 1.9% in the fourth quarter of 2020 

In the fourth quarter of 2020, the seasonally and calendar adjusted measure of Gross Domestic Product (Gdp) decreased by 6.6%compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. In the preliminary estimate, the economic decline was equal to -2%. Istat released these data in the quarterly national accounts. Both domestic demand (including inventories) and foreign demand caused a decrease of 1 percentage point in GDP. 

Ihs Markit: the services PMI index in Italy rose to 48.8 points in February

The service PMI index in Italy rose in February to 48.8 points compared to 44.7 in January. The data is better than expectations by 46 points. However, the index, measured by Ihs Markit, is below 50, which represents the separation threshold between the expansion and contraction of the cycle. In Italy in February, the contraction in the service sector slowed down while the number of new orders stabilized. The latest data, however, bring good news and indicate a new recovery of the Italian economy. 

Istat, poverty reached record levels in 2020. Consumer spending also collapsed 

Absolute poverty grew again and reached the highest value since 2005. Istat released the preliminary estimates of absolute poverty for the year 2020 and the preliminary estimates of household consumption-expenditure, on which absolute poverty indicators are based. Preliminary estimates of 2020 indicated an increasing absolute poverty index, which affected over 2 million families (from 6.4% in 2019 to 7.7%, + 335 thousand), and 5.6 million individuals (from 7.7% to 9.4%, over 1 million more). 

Eurozone, the collapse of retail sales in January 

According to Eurostat estimates, the statistical office of the European Union, in January 2021, the volume of seasonally adjusted retail trade decreased by 5.9% in the euro area and by 5.1% in the EU, compared to December 2020. In December 2020, the volume of retail trade rose by 1.8% in the euro area. The data are much worse than analysts' expectations forecasting a more contained decline of -1.1%. On an annual basis, sales recorded a decrease of 6.4% after + 0.9% of the previous month, again below forecasts (-1.2%). 

Eurostat, euro area unemployment at 8.1% 

According to Eurostat, in January 2021, the euro area seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 8.1%, stable compared to December 2020 and up from 7.4% in January 2020. The EU unemployment rate was 7.3% in January 2021, also stable compared to December 2020 and up from 6.6% in January 2020. Eurostat estimated that 15.7 million people in the EU, of which 13.3 million in the euro area, were unemployed in January 2021. In the entire European Union, the unemployment percentage is stable at 7.3% compared to 6.6% in January 2020. 

Women account for more than half of workers in knowledge-intensive services

According to Eurostat estimates, in 2019, almost 78 million people in the EU were employed in knowledge-intensive services, of whom 31.8 million were men and 46.1 million were women. Although women represent less than half of all employed people in the EU (46%), they are in the majority in knowledge-intensive services (59%). Across the EU, the share of women employed in knowledge-intensive services ranged from 50% in Malta and Luxembourg to 67% in Lithuania and Latvia in 2019. 

Women remain outnumbered at the management level

In the third quarter of 2020, more than 9.5 million people held a managerial position in the EU: 6.2 million men and 3.3 million women. Although women represent almost half of all employed people in the EU (46%), they are under-represented among managers (34%). Eurostat underlined the increase of the share compared to 2002 (beginning of the time series). 

Istat, retail trade dropped by 3.0% in January, online sales up by 38.4% 

In January 2021, Istat estimated a decline for retail sales of 3% in value and 3.9% in volume. A slight growth in sales of food products (+ 0.1% in value and + 0.3% in volume) was in contrast with a marked reduction in non-food products (-5.8% in value and -7.2% by volume). In 2021, the health emergency continues affecting commercial activities at regional and national levels.

 

The Voice of Stakeholders 

 

Coldiretti, "Made in Italy" food in China up by 20.5% in 2020

In Covid time, “Made in Italy” food registered a historical record in China, with a jump of 20.5% in 2020 and a value of over half a billion euro for the first time. Coldiretti disclosed these data in an analysis based on ISTAT data published on the entry into force of the agreement between the EU and China providing for the mutual protection of 200 products with designation of origin. 26 products out of 100 from the European Union are Italian. 

Coldiretti, summer without foreign tourists cost 11.2 billion 

Summer without foreigners on holiday in Italy cost the national tourism industry 11.2 billion due to lost revenue in accommodation, food, transport, entertainment, shopping, and souvenirs. Cordiretti revealed these data in an analysis based on the data from the Bank of Italy. The study underscores the importance of the European vaccination certificate for the summer announced by the President of the European Parliament, David Sassoli, after failing to meet the expectations for Easter and winter tourism. 

Confesercenti, the pandemic cut Italians' incomes. - 1,650 euros per family 

The pandemic is impoverishing the Italians. In the year after the pandemic outbreak, Italian families have lost 1,650 euros in income on average. And the recovery is slow and depends on the vaccination campaign, currently lagging behind the goal. At the end of 2021, the average household income will decrease by a further 512 euros compared to pre-crisis levels. According to Confesercenti, the most affected are self-employed workers, suffering a loss in income of around 44 billion at the end of 2020, and employees in the private sector, which recorded a fall of 43 billion. 

Confindustria, a gradual recovery of industrial activity, with a rebound in January of + 1.3% 

Italian industrial production continued to grow in February (+ 0.7%) after the rebound recorded in the previous month (+ 1.3%). The Confindustria Department Research revealed these data in the survey on industrial production of February. The industry's good performance is also confirmed by the economic surveys conducted by ISTAT (confidence of manufacturing companies) and IHS-Markit (manufacturing PMI), which also improved expectations. 

Confartigianato, in February 2021, business confidence up by 5.5%

In February 2021, the business confidence index returned to rise with an increase of 5.5% compared to January 2020. With an increase in February 2020 of 3, 6%, and 2.8%, manufacturing and construction companies’ confidence index is in line with the pre-crisis level of February 2020. The index is over ten percentage points lower than before the health emergency outbreak in the service sector. These data emerge from the 11th Covid-19 report, realized by the Research Department and the Economic Policy Department of Confartigianato.

 

 Innovation 

 

Smart working: from 3 March, a Commission of experts at the Ministry of the Public Administration

The Technical Commission of the National Observatory of Agile Work made up of twelve experts coordinated by the President of Aran (Agency for Bargaining Representation of Public Administration), Antonio Naddeo, took office on 3 March by mandate of the new Minister of Public Administration, Renato Brunetta. The Commission has the task of defining and organizing smart working to overcome the health emergency. 

UniBocconi and Plan International, Italy ranks 25th in Europe for digital gender equality

A study by Bocconi and Plan International, supported by the Unicredit Foundation, outlines the digital divide between Italian men and women. In the Women in Digital scoreboard, Italy ranks 25th out of 28 European countries for digital gender equality, 12 positions below the European average and ahead only of Greece, Romania, and Bulgaria. The study "The digital gender gap" outlined and analyzed the situation in our country, highlighting the underlying obstacles to promoting female access to technology and Stem disciplines where only 40% of graduates are women.

 Local Authorities 

 

Standard Expenditure needs: the new SOSE questionnaire is online 

The new standard expenditure needs questionnaire for Municipalities and Municipality Unions is available from 1 March 2021. The "FC60U" questionnaire refers to 2019 and aims at updating relevant data to determine standard expenditure needs, defined in Legislative Decree n. 216/2010. The questionnaire is addressed to the Municipalities, Unions of Municipalities and Mountain Communities of the Regions with Ordinary Statute, and the Municipalities and Unions of Municipalities of the Sicily Region. 

 The world of MEF 

 

MEF, in February 2021, the state sector working balance shows a borrowing requirement of 10.2 billion euro

In February 2021, the state sector working balance is provisionally estimated at Euro 10,200 million, with an increase of about 8,600 million compared to the same month of the previous year (1,604 million). According to MEF, the first two months recorded a borrowing requirement of 14,100 million, a worsening of about 15,500 million compared to the first two months of 2020 (a surplus of 1,396 million). 

A data driven approach to tax evasion risk analysis, the Revenue Agency anti-evasion project selected by the European Commission

Technology will support the processes of identifying taxpayers at risk. The Revenue Agency anti-tax evasion project, selected and funded by the European Commission, considers three technological tools, Network analysis, machine learning, and data visualization, to control the vast amounts of data available. 

The data driven approach to tax evasion risk analysis, lasting 16 months, aims to innovate the non-compliance risk assessment processes and combat illegal tax behavior using highly innovative technological tools.