#SoseXpress - Press Review 6/12 november 2021

Today we have before us unprecedented opportunities and great potential [...] We must be able to transform possibilities into achievements to improve our social model, accelerate ecological and digital transitions and offer the younger generations a debt-free society. 

The President of the Republic, Sergio Mattarella, at the opening of the XXXXVIII Annual Anci Assembly. 

The debate of ideas 

 

"Università diffusa" (decentralized University) or University of excellence? 

"Which is the best university system for our country? A university promoting excellence or a "decentralized" university? The gap between the centre and the periphery is certainly decisive in meeting the needs of the business. For example, a recent study by Svimez revealed that more peripheral Italian universities recorded significant decreases in enrolments and great difficulties in obtaining ordinary and extraordinary funding. 

This theme is at the centre of the debate by the working group "Università e disuguaglianza (University and inequality)" at the MIUR, coordinated by Fabrizio Barca and Fulvio Esposito. 

According to the two economists Giacomo Pignataro and Gaetano Vecchione, the university system needs corrective measures to become more equitable and competitive and avoid that in our country, only those who can bear the costs of moving to another city can access better education. Here is the full article on La Voce.info. 

2023, new taxation for multinational enterprises 

Thanks to a new global tax of 15%, it will be unnecessary to shift corporate profits to so-called tax havens. According to OECD estimates, the new minimum taxation will increase tax revenue by 150 billion dollars a year worldwide, about 130 billion euros. The entry into force of the reform in 2023 could significantly affect the global economy, large companies' investments, and many countries' revenues. The interested governments will discuss many operational details in the coming months, although numerous exceptions and compromises have already been provided. However, it isn't easy currently to estimate the actual consequences on each country's economy. Here for the full article on LaVoce.info.  

Studies, research and numbers 

 

Confindustria: slight decline in industrial production in September (-0.1%), on the rise again in October (+ 0.2%) 

In the third quarter, Italian industrial production grew by 1% compared to the second, a slower pace than in the first two quarters. The Confindustria Study Centre reveals these data in the CSC flash survey, estimating that the seasonally adjusted volume of orders increased in September and October by 1% and 0.6%, respectively, compared to the previous month. In September, industrial production decreased by 0.1% (after 0.2% in August reported by Istat and Csc). The slowdown between July and September is due to different factors, such as the shortage of components and raw materials, the greater use of inventories, the production slowdown of commercial partners and the higher degree of uncertainty. Here for more information. 

The pandemic impact on Made in Italy: in 2020, 18.7% of value-added lost 

In 2020, the five "Made in Italy" clusters, agro-food, Tourism, Culture, Fashion and Mechanics, lost 18.7% of value-added compared to the average decrease of 10.6% recorded by business groups and 8.6% in the entire economy. Compared to 2019, Made in Italy lost almost four percentage points, from 20.2% to 16.4%. Overall, clusters lost 10.6% compared to 2019 and recorded a loss of 1.1 percentage points, from 48.6% to 47.5%. These data emerge from a study carried out by the Council and Fondazione Nazionale dei Commercialisti (National Foundation of Accountants) on Agro-food, Tourism, Culture, Fashion, Mechanics, Sea, Health, Construction and Environment. The sample includes 2 million companies, of which 500 thousand capital companies, and over 8 million workers for a total value-added of about € 675 billion in 2020, equal to 48% of the national economic system. Here to learn more. 

The Bank of Italy: supply difficulties will continue beyond the 1st quarter of 2022 

Firms, especially in the industrial sector, face widespread difficulties in procuring production inputs, mainly due to their rising prices or unavailability. According to the economic survey on industrial and service companies conducted by the Bank of Italy, most firms believe that these difficulties will not be overcome before the first quarter of 2022. Industrial and services firms with at least 20 employees recorded significant growth in sales in the first nine months of the year, both in the domestic and foreign markets. About 70% of industrial firms and 60% of service firms expect to recover or exceed pre-pandemic levels within the year. Here the survey by the Bank of Italy. 

Cerved: by 2022, SMEs will return to pre-covid levels 

By 2022, SMEs will exceed pre-Covid levels. Still, it will be necessary to accelerate overall the growth pace, exploit the NRRP and concentrate resources on companies with the greatest growth potential. Cerved provides this scenario in its Report "Pmi 2021", presented in the context of Osservitalia. The analysis concerns 160,000 companies complying with the European SME definition (10-250 employees and 2-50 million euros in revenues), which employ 4.5 million employees. Revenues fell by 8.8% between 2019 and 2020, with more severe effects for small enterprises (-9.2% for those with 10-50 employees). Gross profitability dropped by 14%, with peaks of 67% for the enterprises most affected by Covid. The number of SMEs that ended the year with a loss has doubled, from 16% in 2019 to 33% in 2020. Here to learn more. 

The Bank of Italy: in September, banks’ bad debts continue to drop (-22.5%) 

In September, lending to the private sector grew by 1.7 per cent on an annual basis (against 1.8 in August). Lending to households increased by 3.6% on an annual basis (3.7% in the previous month), while that to non-financial corporations increased by 0.7 per cent (against 1.2 per cent in August). The Bank of Italy provided these estimates, explaining that the change is probably due to securitizations. In addition, in September, bad debts decreased by 22.5% on an annual basis; in August, the reduction was 19.5%, while private sector deposits grew by 7.4% on an annual basis (against 8.1 in August); bond funding decreased by 6.4% compared to the same period of the previous year (-6.1% in August). Here the Note by the Bank of Italy. 

Istat, the Italian economy continues to grow

According to preliminary estimates, the Italian GDP increased by 2.6% in the third quarter, strengthening the production recovery recorded in of the second quarter. In the monthly note on the Italian economy, Istat highlights that this trend during the year (+ 6.1%) allowed to reduce the pre-crisis gap to 1.4% compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. The world economy continues to grow despite increasing energy prices that could undermine production in the coming months. Finally, in September, the labour market also improved, recording an increase in the number of employed people and a reduction in the number of unemployed and inactive. Here the Note by Istat. 

EU revised Italy's GDP growth upwards: + 6.2% in 2021 

The EU economy is recovering faster than expected from the recession due to the pandemic. Despite growing turmoil, the EU economy is projected to keep expanding over the forecast horizon, reaching a growth rate of 5% in 2021, 4.3% in 2022 and 2.5% in 2023. Italy's economic recovery forecasts are also on the rise: 6.2% increase in GDP this year, followed by +4.3% in 2022. According to the European Commission, Italy's deficit will remain very high. After a slight decrease of 9.4% of GDP this year, compared to 9.6% in 2020, it will drop to 5.8% in 2022 and 4.3% in 2023. Finally, the unemployment rate in Italy will rise to 9.8% this year and decrease to 9.3% in 2022 and 9.2% in 2023, returning to the 2020 value. Here for more information on the European Commission website. 

Istat: the month-on-month industrial production rate rose by 0.1%, the year-on-year by 4.4% 

According to Istat, in September 2021, the industrial production seasonally adjusted index increased by 0.1% compared to August, against an expected decrease of 0.1% and compared to -0.3% in the previous month. On an annual basis, the increase is 4.4%, compared to the + 4% of the consensus forecast and -0.1% in August. According to the flash estimate of the National Statistics Institute, the seasonally adjusted index rate of September exceeds by 1.5% the value of February 2020, the last month before the pandemic. In the third quarter, the average production level grew by 1% compared to the previous quarter. The monthly seasonally adjusted index shows a sustained increase for consumer goods (+ 3.3%) and a more contained growth for energy (+ 1.3%) and intermediate goods (+ 0.9%); on the other hand, capital goods recorded a decrease of 1.0%. Here the Note by Istat. 

Inps: in 2020, 1.6 million active companies in Italy, down by 2.3%

In 2020, 1,614,243 companies were active in the non-agricultural private sector, down by 2.33% compared to 2019. INPS estimates that at the regional level, Molise recorded the sharpest decrease (-4.23%), followed by Liguria (-3.99%) and Tuscany (-3.71%). On the other hand, Sicily (-0.31%), Campania (-0.43%) and Calabria (-1.35%) recorded the slightest decreases. In 2020, the average annual number of jobs was 13,707,237, with a decline of 2.08% percentage points compared to the previous year. Also, in 2020, the total yearly contributions amounted to approximately 126 billion euros, with a decrease of 8.3% compared to the previous year. Here the INPS Press Release section. 

The voice of Stakeholders 

 

Confcommercio: with an inflation rate of 4%, the risk of losing 5.3 billion in consumption 

A possible rise in inflation in the last months of this year would strongly reduce household consumption, negatively impacting Christmas purchases and slowing growth in 2022. An average price increase of 3 % would cause a loss of approximately € 2.7 billion in consumption and 5.3 billion in the case of inflation at 4%, which is not so unrealistic. These results emerge from an analysis by the Confcommercio Research Office on the effects of increasing inflation on household consumption in the fourth quarter of 2021. 70% of the estimated losses are due to immediate reductions in the purchasing power of disposable income. Here and here to learn more. 

Coldiretti: Agro-food sector, historical record of € 52 billion for Italian exports 

Made in Italy agri-food reached a historical record in exports, reaching € 52 billion. According to Coldiretti's projections based on Istat data on foreign trade in the first nine months of 2021, industrial production grew in September, also favoured by the recovery in out-of-home consumption. With the progress of the vaccination campaign and the reopening of catering activities the demand for Made in Italy food is growing in Italy and worldwide, with a sharp increase in food production of 6.3% in July. Here for more information. 

Cna: in 2021, construction costs will increase by 63% 

According to a study carried out by CNA (Italian acronym for the Italian Confederation of Craft Trades and Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises) on data from Mef, this year, businesses' and households' expenditure for construction will increase by 62.7% compared to 2019 (pre-pandemic year) and even by 73.2% compared to 2020, the year in which the pandemic broke out. The determining factors were the extension of bonuses, tax deductions, and the possibility to transfer tax credits (110%super bonus, 90% bonus facades, 50% renovation bonus, 65% eco bonus). In absolute terms, the expenditure amounted to 26.7 billion in 2020 and 28.4 billion in 2019 compared to the € 46.2 billion estimated by the Cna Study Center for 2021. Here to learn more. 

Confcommercio: social distress in slight decline, but inflation puts income and employment at risk

The Confcommercio Misery Index decreased slightly from 16.8 to 16.7 compared to August. However, it remained at a high level compared to previous surveys. Inflation is the main cause of concern. It increased from a stalemate to about 3% in a few months, affecting households' purchasing power and impacting employment. In September, the official unemployment rate stood at 9.1%, down by a tenth of a point compared to August. However, the improvement in employment, Confcommercio explains, does not involve professionals and self-employed people, constantly decreasing. The uncertainty that still characterizes the recovery continues to push potential workers to inactivity: compared to pre-pandemic levels, inactive people increased to over 250,000 among people aged 15-64 years. Here to learn more. 

Unioncamere: 465,000 new hires in November  

In November, companies plan almost 465 thousand new employment contracts, increasing by 201 thousand compared to the same month of 2020 and 16 thousand compared to November 2019. Above all, the offer concerns fixed-term contracts, but companies highlight a great difficulty in finding suitable profiles in almost 4 cases out of 10, equal to 179 thousand professional profiles. The Excelsior Information System Bulletin, produced by Unioncamere and Anpal, outlines this scenario and points out that almost 4 out of 10 profiles are “unavailable”, above all highly skilled and highly qualified workers. Here for more information. 

Coldiretti: spending by foreigner tourists soars to 9.4 billion in summer (+ 29%) 

In summer 2021, foreign tourists' expenditure in Italy "jumped" to over 9.4 billion with an increase of 29% compared to the previous year, strongly conditioned by the Covid-19 restrictions. An analysis carried out by Coldiretti based on data on foreign travellers in June, July and August provided by the Bank of Italy reveals these data, which are the result of the vaccination campaign and the green pass. Here to learn more. 

Innovation 

 

Id InfoCamere, the digital identity for entrepreneurs and professionals 

The digital identity services of the Chamber of Commerce Certification Authority are operational for all entrepreneurs and professionals. Through the new InfoCamere platform, the Chambers of Commerce provide the productive fabric with a set of tools to enter the digital economy and increase efficiency and competitiveness. Through the InfoCamere portal, it is possible to request, manage and renew one's signature with digital identity, a helpful tool to sign minutes of meetings, company financial statements, communications, and obligations to public administrations. Furthermore, it is possible to authenticate and access the digital services made available by the Chambers of Commerce. Here for more information. 

Cybercrime: hackers cause damages for 6% of world GDP. In the first half, serious attacks increased by 24%

Cybercrime is a global emergency and causes economic damage estimated at over 6% of world GDP. The alarm is raised by Clusit (Italian Association for IT Security). Its 2021 Report underlines that in the first half of the year, severe attacks increased by 24%, and "very critical or devastating" attacks from 49% to 74%. According to researchers, in the first half of 2021, cybercrime attacks aiming to extort money increased by 21% worldwide, 88% of the total. In Italy, cybercrimes  were 36 million, an increase of 180% compared to the same period of 2020. According to the report, the NRRP "can represent an opportunity to innovate and fill in cybersecurity gaps". Here to learn more. 

Industry 4.0: Mise allocates 15 million for ITSs 

Mise (Ministry of Economic Development) allocated 15 million euros to promote the creation of innovative offices and laboratories based on 4.0 technology, encourage the training of professional skills in Higher Technical Institutes and enhance synergy with the business world. "Encouraging the highly specialized training of high school students is not only a priority for this government - Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti declared - to foster our production system's competitiveness. It is also one of the NRRP's objectives ". Until 3 December, Higher Technical Institutes can request incentives to purchase capital goods, tangible and intangible, machinery and services according to the National Industry 4.0 Plan. Here the Note by Mise. 

Gender equity 

 

4 Weeks 4 Inclusion: 200 companies together for the greatest marathon on inclusion 

The second edition of 4 Weeks 4 Inclusion (4W4I) is underway until next November 22nd, an initiative conceived by companies to raise awareness on the issues of inclusion and the enhancement of diversity, thanks to a program full of shared events, webinars, digital labs and creative groups. Every year, guests and speakers alternate for four consecutive weeks, presenting stories of inclusion and sharing best practices, models and tools to enhance diversity: from disability to generation gap, from the enhancement of female entrepreneurship to sexual orientation and gender identity, ethnicity and religion. Over 200 companies will take part in the 2021 edition of 4 Weeks 4 Inclusion. Here for more information. 

Gender gap: a new digital Observatory to monitor the implementation of the NRRP 

The NRRP represents a unique opportunity for Italy to become a modern, innovative and, at the same time, sustainable and inclusive country. Technologies are at the centre of the digital transition. However, this future still lacks a fundamental element: adequate participation and enhancement of women, a treasure trove of talents to invest in. The Gender Gap Observatory promoted by Associazione Donne 4.0 aims to constantly verify the implementation of gender equality within the NRRP, defining a series of indicators (Key Performance Indicators) to assess the impact of digitization on female employment. Here for more information. 

Local Authorities 

 

38th Anci Assembly: Italian mayors meet in Parma for a three-day event in the presence of Mattarella, Casellati, Fico and Draghi 

"Italy's rebirth can only come from the mayors who are at the centre of the challenges our country must face after the dark period of the pandemic crisis". This idea was the guiding thread of the declarations of the Head of State Sergio Mattarella, Prime Minister Mario Draghi, President of the Senate Maria Elisabetta Casellati and finally of the President of the Chamber Roberto Fico, at the 38th National ANCI Assembly. In particular, President Mattarella reminded that "recognizing the the role of those who administer is part of the dignity of our democratic institutions." Premier Draghi specified that "a new phase is opening up for Italy and its nearly 8,000 municipalities. An opportunity for development, planning, ideas, which - Draghi said - we must be ready to seize for our citizens and for future generations. From the digital transition to the ecological one; from investments in culture to public housing; from nursery schools to support for elderly people; the future of Italy passes through municipalities, and you are the protagonists today." Here, here and here for more information. 

Forum PA: Bologna, Venice and Turin the most "social" Italian cities 

Bologna, Venice and Turin are the three most "social" municipalities of Italy, i.e. the most advanced in terms of presence on the various channels, profile care, visibility, popularity and ability to involve users, followed by Florence, Naples, Rome, Pordenone, Cagliari, Genoa and Milan. The FPA survey highlights this scenario on social networks in 107 main municipalities, based on various indicators: presence on seven social networks, penetration rate, updates, and production of content on Facebook, YouTube and Twitter profiles. The survey is a preview of the "ICity Rank 2021" Report, which will be presented on November 23rd at the event "FORUM PA Città". It will provide the complete ranking of the most "digital" municipalities in Italy. Here to learn more. 

Mondo Mef

MEF: "In the first nine months of the year, tax revenue up to 340.8 billion euros" 

In the period January-September 2021, tax revenues amounted to € 340,865 million, an increase of 12% (equal to € 37,367 million) compared to the same period of 2020. However, the Ministry of Economy and Finance underlines that the comparison between the first nine months of 2021 and the corresponding period of the previous year still presents evident inhomogeneity due to the lockdown, the economic support measures, and the suspension of payments due to the health emergency. According to Mef, September shows an increase in tax revenues equal to € 6,753 million (+ 21.1%), resulting from the increase in direct tax revenues of € 5,763 million (+ 34.1%) and indirect taxes of € 990 million (+ 6.6%). Here the press release by Mef. 

MEF: 107,024 new VAT numbers registered in the third quarter of 2021 (+ 1.4%) 

In the third quarter of 2021, 107,024 new VAT numbers were registered, with an increase of 1.4% compared to the corresponding period of last year. Mef (Observatory on VAT numbers) revealed these data in the last report on the third quarter of 2021. 66.2% of new VAT numbers were registered by individuals, 20.2% by companies, 2.7% by partnerships; the share of "non-residents" and "other legal forms of entrepreneurship" is about 11% of the total of new VAT numbers. The general increase in new VAT number registrations compared to the third quarter of 2020 is due to non-resident subjects (+ 180%), a phenomenon linked to online sales of goods and services. On the other hand, all other legal forms of entrepreneurship show a decline: individuals -5, 5%, companies -5.9% and partnerships -8.2%. Here the press release by Mef.