#SoseXpress - Press Review 8/14 january 2022

The innovation we are talking about is not just technological innovation, which is so much needed for our economy. What we need is innovation in all areas, a renewed sense of creativity, for our institutions, for our policies, for our ways of acting and also for our lifestyles. 

Since David Sassoli’s last speech to the European Parliament. 

The Debate of ideas  

High commodity prices can stimulate more efficient trade  

 The rise in transport prices for the dispatch of goods is perhaps one of the phenomena that have emerged in the course of the past year with ways that still seem to condition the trend of international trade and generate anxieties and fears in companies that compete or aim to to compete in global markets. The way in which the price system operates would allow an efficient evolution of the dynamics of production and distribution of the various products and services that are required on the market. New phenomena of entrepreneurship and more advantageous production combinations can be set in motion, innovating the transport systems. Here is a study by Lorenzo Bona, Limestone Economics and Fondazione Economia di Tor Vergata.  

Fiscal federalism: how far it is being implemented  

 The latest report of the Parliamentary Committee on the implementation of fiscal federalism of 15 December 2021 shows that the criteria guiding fiscal equalisation, from health to social services, from regions to municipalities, are still not fully in line with constitutional principles. The implementation of Law 42 of 2009, which regulates the principles linked to fiscal federalism in Italy, based on the pillars of decentralisation and solidarity, is incomplete. The in-depth article published in Lavoce.info by Francesco Porcelli and here again analyzes the state of implementation of fiscal federalism asking the question of the possibility of being more precise in quantifying the percentage of implementation of constitutional principles governing relations between levels of government. Here to learn more 

Income inequality: Italians have little confidence in redistributive policies  

In the European comparison, Italy is among the countries with the highest income inequality and Italians seem to be more concerned about this situation. Excessive inequalities in the economic conditions of families can have an impact on the opportunities available for children and young people. Combating educational poverty means creating the conditions for reducing these inequalities. For this reason, it is essential to have instruments capable of monitoring these inequalities at local level as well. A difficult challenge, given the lack of data at such a level of disaggregation and the presence of factors (such as tax evasion) that may compromise the analysis. What influence do these perceptions and concerns have on the demand for policies to reduce inequalities? Here’s a more in-depth look at Lavoce.info

Studies, research and numbers 

Istat: inflation in December +3.9% on an annual basis  

Inflation rises in Italy in December. According to preliminary estimates released by ISTAT the national index of consumer prices for the whole community (NIC), recorded an increase of 0.4% on a monthly basis, bringing the increase in prices tending to 3.9%, from +3.7% in the previous month. In December the prices of the so-called "shopping cart" accelerate in particular: the prices of food, for the care of the home and the person in fact double their growth from +1.2% in November to +2.4%. The prices of high-frequency products go up from +3,7% to +4,0%. Here the ISTAT Note. 

OECD: inflation and the highest rate in 25 years  

Inflation in the OECD area continues to rise, reaching 5.8% in November from 5.2% in October, reaching its highest rate since May 1996. This was reported by the OECD, which stresses that the significant increase was favored by the strong rise in energy prices (+27.7%) reaching the highest rate since June 1980. The increase was particularly marked in the United States. Inflation in the euro area rose sharply to 4.9% in November, from 4.1% in October and from less than 0.3% a year earlier, while remaining lower than in the OECD area as a whole. Here for a follow-up.  

Istat: retail, sales down in November, -0.4%  

In November 2021, Istat estimates a downturn in retail sales, showing that sales of food are decreasing, while those of non-food goods are almost stationary. On a trend basis, however, in November 2021, retail sales increased by 12.5% in value and 11.7% in volume. In the quarter September-November 2021, in cyclical terms, retail sales increased by 1.2% in value and 0.9% in volume, explains Istat, pointing out that "sales of non-food goods grew markedly" (+2.0% in value and +1.8% in volume)while those of the alimentary goods increase in value and decrease in volume (respective +0.5% and -0,5%). Here is the Note of Istat. 

Bank of Italy, rises of 1.5% the loans to the private sector in November  

In November, bank loans to the private sector grew by 1.5% on an annual basis from +1.6% in October. This is what the Bank of Italy announces in its publication "Banche e moneta: serie nazionali". Loans to households increased by 3.8% over 12 months, while those to non-financial corporations increased by 0.4%. Private sector deposits grew by 6.2% against 7% in October. Here the Note of Bank of Italy. 

Istat: tourism, sector in recovery but still far from the levels pre-pandemia  

Italian tourism is recovering but pre-Covid times are still far away. According to the Istat report on the Tourism Movement in Italy, in the first nine months of 2021 the presence of customers in accommodation establishments is up on 2020 (+22.3%) but remains well below the levels of 2019 (-38.4%). In the summer quarter (July-September) there were about 177 million tourists (+31% compared to 2020) and 29 million fewer compared to 2019 (-14%). With regard to the first nine months of 2021, provisional data from our country show a less negative trend than the European average compared to 2019. Among the components of tourism demand, the foreign one shows greater difficulties of recovery (-56.1% of attendance) compared to the domestic component (-20.3%). Here is the Note of Istat.  

Consob, for Italians more and more online trading and cryptocurrencies  

The interest of Italians in the stock markets, online trading and crypto-activities is growing. About 28% of those who use the network for economic and financial choices, use online financial services more than they did before the pandemic but this is associated with an inadequate level of knowledge, about 36% of respondents. This highlights the study conducted by the Consob Observatory and contained in the VII Edition of the "Report on the investment choices of Italian families. Attitudes and behavioural profiles", based on a questionnaire given by Gfk Italia to a sample of about 2,700 individuals, representative of the population of Italian financial decision-makers, in June 2021. Here a deepening. 

Istat: in November 494 thousand more people employed  

 According to ISTAT surveys, 700 thousand more jobs have been registered since January 2021, the improvement in employment (+0.3%) has affected men and women, temporary and self-employed employees, people between 25-34 years and over 50 years. Following the recovery in employment, observed between February and June and starting from September 2021, the number of people employed in November 2021 is higher than in November 2020 by 2.2% (+494 thousand units). Preliminary Istat estimates indicate a fall in unemployment to 9.2% and an increase in employment to 58.9%. The inactivity rate also falls. Here is the Note of Istat. 

Intesa San Paolo: the export in flight in the industrial districts, exceeded the levels before the virus   

The positive data emerge from the Report of the Research Department of Intesa San Paolo with 98 districts out of 158 that return, and in some cases exceed, pre-covid levels. In the third quarter of 2021 there was an increase in exports of 9.5%. Among the industrial sectors already beyond the pre-pandemic levels are the metallurgy, household appliances and food sectors. Positive also the results of the construction chain. Here to learn more. 

Istat: industry, production in November, +1.9%  

Istat estimates that in November 2021 the seasonally adjusted index of industrial production increases by 1.9% compared to October. In the average quarter of September-November, the level of production grew by 0.6% compared to the previous quarter. Adjusted for calendar effects, the overall index increases in November 2021 in trend terms by 6.3%. The highest increases concern energy, +4.6% compared to October and +12.4% over the year. "In November, industrial production is growing again in cyclical terms, after the decline of the previous month and the index level is 3.1% higher than the value of February 2020, the month before the start of the health emergency".  Here is the Note of Istat.   

 

The voice of stakeholders 

Anpal-Unioncamere: work, companies expect 458 thousand revenues in January  

There are just under 458 thousand contracts planned by companies in January and will rise to about 1.2 million in the January-March quarter. Compared to the same period last year, there is an increase in revenue (+112thousand on January 2021 and +265 thousand compared to the quarter January-March 2021). The comparison with December 2021 was also positive, with 104,000 more contracts (+29.4%), for all economic sectors except for tourism, where the increasing uncertainties linked to the trend of the epidemic in recent weeks weigh heavily. This scenario is outlined by the Excelsior Information System Bulletin, produced by Unioncamere and Anpal. Here to learn more.   

Confcommercio, "inflation still on, impact on growth and consumption"  

In December, as reported by ISTAT, the consumer price index rose by 3.9% on an annual basis and by 0.4% on a monthly basis. All the components are growing, with energy goods slowing down the race a bit but still increasing by almost 30% compared to the same month last year. According to the Confcommercio Studies Office "the preliminary figure consolidates the concerns, long expressed, on the impact of the resumption of inflation on growth in 2022. The legacy left by 2021 (1.8%) and the persistence of tensions on raw materials leave little room to assume a return to price dynamics in the short term". Moreover, according to Confcommercio, both for the increases of the energetic assets that for the costs that are accumulating in the productive rows, the inflation could exceed the threshold of 4%. Here the Note of Confcommercio.  

Unimpresa: 700 thousand companies at risk of insolvency with the end of the moratoria   

For almost 700,000 Italian companies the risk of insolvency could occur, with the prospect of a crash, estimated at over 27 billion euros. In fact, 694,894 companies have suspended bank loans of a total amount of 27.1 billion since 2020. This is what the Unimpresa Study Centre reports, according to which the rules on bank loans, including moratoria and public guarantees, are worth EUR 247.6 billion. The rule on the so-called moratoriums of loans granted by banks was introduced by the decree-law "Cura Italia" (Article 56) in spring 2020, but that measure expired at the end of last December and was not renewed to avoid an EU procedure for unlawful State aid. Here to learn more.   

Coldiretti: energy, price increases strangle agriculture  

The sharp increase in energy resources is sweeping over the budgets of agricultural enterprises choked by increases in production costs which are not compensated by adequate sales prices. And what emerges from the analysis of Coldiretti that the high bills affects both agricultural activities but also processing, distribution and transport. Here to learn more.   

Confartigianato: in 2022 employment to +1,5%  

The economic recovery also has positive effects on the labour market, with an increase of 1% in employment in 2021 and 1.5% in 2022. Over the first three quarters of 2021, micro and small enterprises (Mpis) employed up to 49 employees in 896,000 jobs, 61.8% of the total, 12.6 points higher than the 49.2% share of employee positions in force in Mpis. The share of micro and small enterprises rises to 79.8% for permanent positions, while it is to 50.3% for fixed-term positions. This is what emerges from the latest analysis of the Confartigianato Studies Office on the basis of the data highlighted in the "Quarterly Note on employment trends III quarter 2021", jointly elaborated by Istat, Ministry of Labour and Social Policies, Inps, Inail and Anpal. Here the Note of the Study Office of Confartigianato. 

Confcommercio, GDP +6.2%, consumption +5.1% but slow recovery 

According to data from the 2021 balance sheet prepared by the Confcommercio Studies Office, 2021 will close with a GDP growth of 6.2% and consumption of 5.1%, but some sectors are still down double-digit compared to the values of 2019: for catering and hotels the consumption loss is respectively 27.3% and 35% compared to 2 years ago; for cultural and recreational services 21.5%; for transport 16% and for clothing and footwear 10.5%. The report points out that the recovery continues slower than expected and for consumption (-7.3% compared to 2019) the complete return to pre-pandemic levels will not take place before 2023. Here for a follow-up. 

CNA, one in four company confident of growth in 2022  

A survey carried out by the NAC on a representative sample of 1700 craft and small business enterprises reveals that 5.4% of respondents predict that the Italian economy will return to pre-Italian levelsPandemic, 18.3% hope for recovery but losses will be recovered only partially. Tones more confident if you talk about the expectations on the results 2022 for your company with over 40% of the sample that indicates growth results and almost one in five companies predicts better results than those pre-pandemia. Here for a follow-up. 

Unioncamere-BMTI: +13,3% cost of local public services 2021  

  For energy, natural gas, water and waste, Smes in 2021 paid 13.3% more than 2020. The increments of expense depend mainly on the course of the cost of the supply of electric energy and natural gas, increased respective of +15.3% and +22.2% in twelve months. From the budget carried out by Unioncamere-BMTI on the evolution of the tariffs paid in the last year by Smes for the main public services, it emerges that the most penalized were the non-food goods shops, for which expenditure increased by +20.3%. Here to learn more.   

Original news The Misery Index of Confcommercio evidences a social unease high   

In November the social unease is confirmed high according to the Misery Index (MIC) elaborated from the Office studies of Confcommercio has been attested to 16,6 points, in reduction of hardly a tenth of point on October. The reasons according to Confcommercio lie in the resumption of inflation that continues to neutralize the improvements in the labour market, accentuating the uncertainties on the outlook for 2022. The indicator is confirmed at historically high levels, signaling, in the last quarter, a concrete stagnation. Here the Note of Confcommercio.

 

Innovation 

Eleven new start-ups per day, Milan leads the 2021 record  

It ranges from sustainable development to online deliveries, from engineering to blockchain for the activities of new companies registered in the special Start-up section of the Register of Companies in 2021, as evidenced by the surveys of Infocamere. The leader on a regional basis is Lombardy, driven by Milan, which in 2021 registered 818 entries: the highest figure in all of Italy. Only Rome (536 new start-ups) manages to have values not too far away, while all the other areas, starting from the third in the standings, Naples with 174 entries, follow at a significant distance. Software and IT consulting are the sectors that record the highest growth, concentrating over 2,000 and 100 companies, more than half of the total number of start-ups born in 2021. Here to learn more.  

Edge computing and artificial intelligence: investment is growing   

Business intelligence/ data analysis; content delivery; analysis of texts and images; network and security: these are the cornerstones on which companies are investing a lot of resources to compete in a digital-oriented world.  

Global expenditure on edge computing will amount to $176 billion in 2022, an increase of 14.8% over the past year. The forecasts also continue to be very positive for the future: investments in services for hardware, software and services for edge solutions will support this rate of growth until 2025, when turnover will reach 274 billion.  Here and here for the insights.   

The subscription economy market is growing   

Subscriptions: this is the object of what is called subscription economy. When we talk about subscription economy or subscription-based economy we are referring to the change that many companies are making towards a business model that rests on digital platforms and data from the study of Juniper Research, "Subscription Economy: Future Strategies & Market Forecasts 2022-2026" shows that the global market value of the subscription economy will grow to 275 billion in 2022.  After evaluating 10 key markets based on these economic logics, the Report identified the following three sectors with the highest revenues for 2022: physical assets; digital video and digital music. Here to learn more. 

Istat: for Smes the activation of e-commerce channels is slow  

Italian Smes improve their level of digitalization but the activation of e-commerce channels is still slow, despite the push of the pandemic. In 2020, the percentage of companies with at least 10 employees who have sold online continues to be low (18.4%) and, although there has been an increase of two percentage points compared to the previous year, remains below the EU27 average. In addition, the digital intensity level of 60.3% reached in 2021 is far from the European target for 2030 (90%), although higher than the EU-27 average (56%), and places Italian Smes in tenth place, above German (59%) and French (47%). This is revealed by the survey of Istat that photographs the situation in Italy regarding the indicators of the Digital economy society index (Desi) for small and medium-sized enterprises. Here is the Note of Istat.  

 

Local Authorities

New mobility solutions for 13 metropolitan cities  

"Mobility as a Service for Italy" this is the title of the call within which 13 Metropolitan City Municipalities have presented as many projects aimed at the development of innovative mobility services for citizens and intelligent management of transport on the territory. The MAAS (Mobility as a Service) is a new concept of mobility that involves the integration of multiple services (such as public transport, car-sharing, taxis, car hire, etc.), accessible to the user through a single digital channel with different options among those existing, from travel planning to payment. Here to learn more.  

PA and ICT expenditure: published the new survey conducted by Agid  

The growth trend of ICT spending in the PA in the period 2019-2022 is sustained and always around the annual +6% while suffering a slowdown in 2020 mainly as a result of the emergency Covid-19, which involves all sectors, with the exception of Health and Education, which recorded a growth of 10.5%, mainly for the implementation of DAD systems. Compared to the previous year, estimates for 2021 show a stronger recovery of growth for all sectors, equal to 5.7%, with an estimated total value of about 6.5 billion euros. This is noted by the survey of Agid, which, on a panel of about 70 administrations analyzed, illustrates the estimates on the overall trend of ICT expenditure of the PA in Italy. Here for a follow-up. 

 

The world of MEF

Mef: revenue for the first 11 months 2021 rose to 441 billion (+12%)  

In the period January-November 2021, the tax revenue established amounted to €441,477 million, an increase of 12.2% compared to the same period of the year 2020. It makes known the MEF, signalling that the comparison between the first eleven months 2021 and those of the correspondent period of 2020 still introduces an evident character of unevenness for effect of the lockdown and the consequent economic measures directed to face the emergency sanitary, which include suspensions, reductions or recovery of payments for different types of tax. Here is the MEF Press Release.  

Mef, credit and liquidity for households and businesses  

On the basis of preliminary data, referring to 31 December 2021, there are still active moratoria worth a total of about 44 billion, equivalent to about 17% of all moratoria granted since March 2020. Guarantee applications for new bank financing for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises submitted to the Guarantee Fund for Smes rise to over 221 billion. Through Sace’s "Italy Guarantee", the volume of guaranteed loans reaches 32.3 billion euros, out of 4344 requests received. Thus the MEF announces the main results of the joint survey carried out by the task force set up to promote the implementation of the liquidity support measures adopted by the Government to respond to the emergency Covid-19, of which Mise is also part, Banca d'Italia, Abi, Mediocredito Centrale and Sace. Here is the MEF Press Release.