#SoseXpress - Press Review 13-19 novembre 2021

We must resist the temptation of withdrawing from expansionary policies prematurely. This idea may come from the pace of growth and inflation, but we must continue to support the ECB monetary policy and the budgetary policies of the EU commission. 

The EU Commissioner for Economic Affairs, Paolo Gentiloni, at the meeting of Confindustria Firenze. 

The debate of ideas 

A common path for energy efficiency and business productivity 

The "energy transition" was at the centre of the debate at COP26. Is there a positive relationship between alternative energy efficiency measures and business productivity? Are data on the relationship between energy efficiency and productivity important for policymaking? Does this relationship hold true, albeit to a different extent, for all industries and regional groups? A fundamental aspect is the possibility of an reverse causality relationship (higher productivity affects companies' energy efficiency). A recently published study on the correlation between energy efficiency and business productivity analysed for the first time a large sample of manufacturing companies, mostly located in developing countries between 2006 and 2018. Here to learn more.  

Our future between growth and inflation 

Are the optimistic estimates of the Commission and other international bodies on the Italian economy reliable? Given the difficulties in forecasting the vigorous world economic recovery and the sharp price increase, this is a legitimate question. However, model-based extrapolations seem not to help predict the future in a time of profound changes. It was rather easy to imagine intense economic growth, but not such rocketing inflation. Here the article on La Voce.info. 

Studies, research and numbers 

 

Inps: in 2020, public sector workers increased by 2.5% compared to 2019 

INPS (Osservatorio sui lavoratori pubblici -Observatory of public sector employees) estimated that in 2020, public sector workers with at least one paid day in the year amounted to 3,678,999 (+ 2.5% compared to 2019), with an average salary of 32,222 euros and an average of 278 paid days. People working in the Education sector are 39.2%, followed by the Health Service with 19.5%, local Administrations (Regions, Provinces, Municipalities) with 15.6% and the Armed Forces, Police and Fire Brigade with 14.0%. Also, in 2020, the regions in the Centre recorded 23.9% of public sector workers, followed by the North-West with 23.0%, the South with 21.7%, the North-East with 19.9% and the Islands with 11.5%. Here the press release section on INPS website. 

The Bank of Italy, public debt down in September 

In September, the general government debt amounted to 2,706.4 billion, down by 27.9 billion compared to the previous month. The general government borrowing requirement (15.6 billion) was more than offset by the reduction in the Treasury's liquidity (43.3 billion, to 96.3). The Bank of Italy released these results in the statistical publication "Public finance: borrowing requirement and debt". In detail, the central administrations' debt decreased by 28.3 billion, while that of local administrations increased by 0.3 billion. Here the note by the Bank of Italy. 

Eurostat: euro area international trade surplus € 7.3 billion 

In September, the trade balance of the euro area recorded a 7.3 billion euro surplus in trade in goods with the rest of the world, down from +24.1 billion euros in September 2020. According to Eurostat estimates, exports amounted to 209.3 billion euros in the month, increasing by 10% compared to September 2020 (190.2 billion euros). On the other hand, imports reached 202 billion euros, up by 21.6% compared to September 2020 (166.1 billion euros). Intra-euro area trade rose to € 191.5 billion, increasing by 16.4% compared to September 2020. Here the press release section on the Eurostat website. 

Istat: inflation on the rise, + 3% in October 

Inflation is reaching record levels in Italy. In October, the national consumer price index for the whole community (NIC), including tobacco, recorded an increase of 0.7% on a monthly basis and 3.0% on an annual basis (from +2.5 % in the previous month). The flash estimate was + 2.9%. The estimated headline inflation for 2021 was + 1.8% and + 0.8% for the core component. According to Istat, it is the fourth consecutive increase: from a decrease in December 2020 to a rise never recorded since September 2012 (when it was equal to + 3.2%). This speed-up of inflation on an annual basis is largely due, also in October, to the prices of energy (from + 20.2% in September to + 24.9%), both regulated products (from + 34.3% to + 42.3%) and non-regulated products (from + 13.3% to + 15.0%). Here the note by ISTAT. 

Eurostat: GDP up by 2.2% and employment  by 0.9% in the euro area 

According to the flash estimate published by Eurostat, in the third quarter of 2021, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 2.2% in the euro area and by 2.1% in the EU, compared to the previous quarter. In the second quarter of 2021, GDP had grown by 2.1% in the euro area and by 2% in the EU. Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 3.7% in the euro area and by 3.9% in the EU in the third quarter of 2021. Compared to the previous quarter, the number of employed people increased by 0.9% both in the euro area and the EU in the third quarter of 2021. The year-on-year employment increase was 2% in the euro area and 2.1% in the EU in the third quarter of 2021. Here the press release section on the Eurostat website. 

PoliMi: in 2021, the Contract Logistics market recovers with a turnover of 86 billion euros (+ 3.5%) 

The Contract Logistics market reached a turnover of 86 billion euros, up by 3.5% compared to 2020 and very close to the values before the health crisis (87 billion in 2019). The growth was driven by advanced logistics services, which in the year of Covid exceeded 10% of turnover for half of logistics suppliers, and the boom in eCommerce, which reached 20% of turnover for 60% of suppliers. These results emerge from a study presented by the Contract Logistics Observatory "Gino Marchet" of the School of Management of the Politecnico di Milano, at the conference " Sostenibilità e digitalizzazione: il binomio vincente per la transizione della logistica (Sustainability and digitalization: the winning combination for the transition of logistics". In 2021, the costs of production factors such as energy (+ 24%), fuel (+ 13%) and rents (+ 2%) also increased. Here to learn more. 

Istat: construction production up by 0.5% in September 

Istat estimates that in September, the seasonally adjusted production index in construction increased by 0.5% compared to August, recording the highest value in the last five months, and reaching the maximum level in the last nine years on a quarterly basis. The statistical Institute also highlights that in the third quarter, the economic growth continued, albeit slower than in the previous two quarters. On an annual basis, construction production returned to grow considerably in September after a limited increase in August. On the average of the first nine months of 2021, both the raw and calendar-adjusted indices increased by 27.6% compared to the same period of the previous year. Here the Note by Istat. 

The Bank of Italy: households' economic expectations improve 

The health emergency continues to weigh, but Italian households' consumption seems to improve. In the sixth edition of the Special Survey of Italian Households, The Bank of Italy underlines that the percentage of households declaring that they are spending less for hotels, bars and restaurants than prior to the pandemic decreased by 15 % although it remains high (71% compared to almost 90% in the most acute phases of the health emergency). The reduction is more pronounced (55%, down by about 30 percentage points) for households that are easily able to make ends meet. The percentage of households that have reduced purchases in clothing stores and on beauty and personal care services also fell sharply to 63 and 57% respectively. Here the publication by the Bank of Italy. 

Istat: in September exports down by 1.3% and imports by 1.7% 

In September, the trade balance amounted to 2,454 million euros, a sharp decline compared to +6,039 in the same month last year. Net of energy products, the balance was +5.956 million (it was +7.707 in September 2020). Exports decreased by 1.3% and imports by 1.7% on a monthly basis, while they increased on an annual basis by 10.3% (15% towards the EU area and 5.2% towards non-EU markets) and 22.5% (15.7% towards the EU area and 32.5% towards the non-EU area), respectively. Exports increased towards Germany (+ 12.5%), Spain (+ 21.4%), Belgium (+ 27.5%) and France (+ 8.8%). Here the note by Istat. 

Eurostat: Business registrations and bankruptcies decrese in the third quarter of 2021 

Eurostat estimated that in the third quarter of 2021, registrations of new businesses in the EU decreased by 3.4% compared to the previous quarter. Declared bankruptcies decreased as well (by 1.3%). The statistical office of the European Union underlines that in the third quarter of 2021, the number of business registrations was 5% higher than in the same period of 2019, before the COVID-19 crisis, while the number of bankruptcy declarations decreased by 26% during the same period. All sectors of the economy (industry, construction, market services) experienced a moderate decrease in the number of new business registrations in the third quarter of 2021. Nevertheless, the numbers remained significantly above pre-COVID-19 levels. (Q4 2019) for transport, information and communication sectors. Here the press release section on Eurostat website. 

MISE: 10 million euros for "società benefit" 

The Minister for Economic development signed the implementing decree promoting the creation or transformation of companies operating on the national territory into "società benefit." The decree allocates 10 million euros for this purpose, 7 million as tax credit, and 3 million for promotional activities. A "società benefit" is a company, which combines the goal of profit with a positive impact on people, communities, territories, environment, assets, cultural and social activities, entities, associations and other stakeholders, operating in a responsible, sustainable and transparent way. In particular, the contribution includes a tax credit amounting to 50% of the costs for setting up or transforming a company into a "società benefit", including notarial fees, registration charges and the expenses related to professional assistance and consulting. Here the Note by Mise. 

Istat: job vacancies in manufacturing and service companies 

In the third quarter of 2021, the seasonally adjusted job vacancy rate was 1.8%; service companies recorded the same value while it was 1.9% for manufacturing companies. Compared to the previous quarter, the rate increased in manufacturing (+ 0.3 percentage points) and decreased in the services sector (-0.2 percentage points). According to the preliminary ISTAT estimate available online, the job vacancy rate is 1.4% for companies with at least 10 employees, resulting from a similar increase in the manufacturing and service sectors (+0.1 percentage points). Here the Note by Istat. 

The Bank of Italy: house prices on the rise 

In the third quarter, the signs of upward pressure on house prices in Italy have strengthened. For the first time since the start of the survey in 2009, the share of agents reporting an increase in prices in the third quarter compared to the previous one has become more significant, though only slightly so, than the share of those indicating a decrease. The Bank of Italy reported these results in the Italian Housing Market Survey, conducted on over a thousand real estate agents from 27 September to 22 October 2021. Here the publication by the Bank of Italy. 

Istat: industrial turnover up by 0.1% in September, + 15.2% on an annual basis 

Istat estimates an increase in industrial turnover seasonally adjusted rate of 0.1% in September compared to August. Year on year, the calendar-adjusted industrial turnover grew by 15.2% (+ 17.0% on the domestic market and + 11.6% on the non-domestic market). In the third quarter, total industrial turnover increased by 2.4% compared to the previous three months (+ 3.0% on the domestic market and + 1.5% on the non-domestic market). Compared to September 2020 a very marked year-on-year increase was recorded in energy and intermediate goods r(+ 48.2% and+ 28.6%, respectively), more contained in consumer goods (+ 7.1%) and capital goods ( + 2.4%). On an annual basis, manufacturing recorded increases in all economic sectors, except for the transport vehicle and pharmaceutical sectors. Here the Note by Istat. 

 

The voice of Stakeholders 

 

Asseprim - Confcommercio: business services companies invest more than 5% of turnover in digital transformation 

71% of companies declared to invest in digital technologies (5,3% of turnover is the average investment in 2021), mainly in smart working, tangible assets 4.0 (computer-controlled equipment), intangible assets 4.0 (software, IT systems and system integration), research and development. Asseprim Focus, the Economic Observatory of Asseprim (the Confcommercio Federation of business services enterprises), revealed these data in a study realized in collaboration with Format Research. In this scenario, 41% of companies highlighted the need of reviewing their digital marketing strategy and trust in the NRRP to find the resources to accelerate the recovery process for the entire services sector. However, for some companies (10%), this is a long way to go. Here and here to learn more. 

Confesercenti: the impact of increasing inflation on consumption 

In the first nine months of 2021, the prices of industrial raw materials increased by 43%, oil by 55%, natural gas by 166%—a wave of prices increases that will affect consumption., which could drop by 9.5 billion euros in two years: about 4 billion this year and 5.5 billion in 2022 ". And the complete recovery will only come in 2023. This is what the president of Confesercenti, Patrizia De Luise, said at the 2021 annual meeting, adding that "for this reason, the recovery in consumption will be slower than that GDP. At the end of 2022, consumption volume could remain below the pre-pandemic level, with a residual gap of around 20 billion ". Here for more information. 

Unioncamere survey on the purchasing groups in the large-scale distribution  

According to the survey conducted by Unioncamere with the collaboration of BMTI (Agency of the Italian Chambers of Commerce System for market regulation, development and transparency, and prices and economic information dissemination) and REF Ricerche on the 46 most consumed products, prices increased by 0.4% in September and 1.9% between October and November. In September, soft wheat flour (+ 2%) and durum wheat semolina pasta (+ 0.9%) recorded the greatest variations compared to the previous month due to the prices of the respective raw materials, resulting from the summer drought in Canada and the United States which caused a reduction of the harvest. Veal (+ 4.2%) and beef (+ 1.5%) meat also increased. According to Unioncamere, should forecasts result in final data, inflation could increase to + 4.8% between October and November. Here for more information on the Unioncamere website. 

Coldiretti: food industry record performance with 575bn, up by 7% in 2021 

Coldiretti estimates that in 2021, the food industry has become Italy's first economic resource with a value of € 575 billion and a 7% increase in turnover despite the difficulties linked to the pandemic. This sector, including agriculture, industry, large-scale distribution, and catering (most affected by the prolonged closures due to lockdowns) "today is worth almost a quarter of national GDP and employs 4 million workers in 740 thousand farms, 70 thousand food industries, over 330 thousand catering companies and 230 thousand retail outlets ". Here for more information. 

Unioncamere-Infocamere: green light to the National Digital Data Platform  

The National Digital Data Platform (Italian acronym PDND) aims to simplify and speed up access to public information. Through the “Semplificazioni” decree, the Government entrusted to the Italian chambers of Commerce the implementation of this service, allowing companies to communicate efficiently and transparently regarding the additional investments provided by the National Recovery Plan. The initiative will enable Italian companies to save time and incur lower costs for acquiring information from the PA. In detail, the PA will automatically provide "certified answers" to "authorized requests" by companies to access public services and benefits. Here to learn more. 

Confartigianato: in 2021, Italy first in the EU with a 21% increase in construction vs a 7% average increase in the 27 EU countries 

Investments recorded a boom in construction with +21.4%, the highest growth rate in the whole EU. In detail, the Italian performance exceeds the performances in France (15.1%) and Germany (+ 1.4%), while Spain lags significantly behind (-2.7%). Compared to pre-Covid-19 levels, investments in construction in Italy grew by 13.2%, compared to + 2.8% in the EU, overtaking Germany (+ 3.9%), France (+ 1.3%) and Spain (down by 12%). Investments in machinery also rose by 15.8%, while in 2022, the public investments-to-GDP ratio will reach the Eurozone average thanks to the NRRP financed with European funds. Here for more information. 

Confcommercio: inflation risk weighs on growth 

According to the last note published by the Confcommercio Research Office, some factors risk slowing the economic recovery at the end of 2021. In addition to the resurgence of the pandemic, inflationary tensions, which are objectively difficult to resolve in the short term, could slow down the recovery of households' consumption and reduce the growth prospects for 2022. However, compared to the rest of Europe, the Italian economy, at least until now, has shown a more favourable scenario. In October, consumption increased significantly in the service sector, which is almost fully operational. On the other hand, goods consumption returned to decrease. The Confcommercio Consumption Indicator (Italian acronym ICC) increased by 3.4% on an annual basis resulting from a 21.4% increase in services and a 2.0% decrease in goods. Here the details on the Confcommercio website. 

Innovation 

 

MISE: startups and innovative SMEs on the rise, + 3.3% in the third quarter 

Innovative entrepreneurship is growing in Italy. MISE published the report on startups and innovative SMEs in the third quarter of 2021. On October 1, 2021, the registered startups were 14,032, increasing by 540 units compared to the previous quarter (+3.3 %) and amounting to 3.6% of all newly established companies. Most startups, 75.2%, provide services to companies in digital sectors (37.9% in software production and IT consulting, 14.2% R&D activities, 8.6 % in information services), the percentages for manufacturing and trade are lower, 16.4% and 3.1%, respectively. The innovative startups with a prevalence of young people (under 35) are 2,600, 18.5% of the total, exceeding by four percentage points non-innovative companies (15.1%). Here the Note by Mise. 

Desi 2021: Italy ranks 20th due to the lack of digital skills 

According to the 2021 edition of the Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI), Italy ranks 20th, with Bulgaria and before Romania, out of the 27 EU member states. During 2020, Italy has made some progress in both coverage and uptake of connectivity networks. However, the pace of fibre deployment slowed between 2019 and 2020 and efforts are still needed to increase the coverage of Very High Capacity Networks and 5G and stimulate take-up. According to the Desi 2021 report, Italy lags significantly behind other EU countries on human capital. Compared to the EU average, it records very low levels of basic and advanced digital skills. The share of Italian online users using e-government services has increased from 30% in 2019 to 36% in 2020 but is still well below the EU average. Here for more information. 

The National Register of the Resident Population (ANPR): 123,000 certificates downloaded in one day 

The first day of the Digital Registry was a success, with 123,000 certificates downloaded on the first day of the online service. The Interior Ministry reported on its portal that 253,948 citizens accessed the reserved area. To search for personal data and download documents, the citizen must have a Spid code (Public digital identity), an electronic identity card (Italian acronym Cie) or the national service card. If the request regards a family member, the system will show the list of family members for which it is possible to request a certificate. A preview of the document allows verifying the data before downloading the document in pdf format or receiving it by email. 14 digital certificates can be issued free also in "contestuale" form (for example, citizenship, death and residence certification can be requested in a single certificate). Here an in-depth analysis on the website of the Ministry of the Interior. 

WiFi Italia: free internet on the national network 

MISE starts a new communication campaign to promote WiFi Italia, a unique national network, in the squares of villages and cities throughout the peninsula. The message will be broadcast on radio and TV in the next days: " Connettiamo le piazze, nei borghi come in città (Let's connect squares, in villages and cities)". The communication campaign concerning the WiFi Italia project aims to encourage citizens' digitization through a network of hotspots accessible throughout the country. The project will unify connections by a single channel so that Italy can feel under the same WiFi network. Here the Note by Mise. 

Gender equity 

 

Confindustria promotes the "Women in Stem" project

Enhancing the role of women in scientific subjects is the goal of the "Women in Stem" project launched by Confindustria to help female students in their career in innovation and technology, reducing the numbers of early leavers and helping them complete their courses of study. The Mai Foundation of Confindustria will award the most deserving students enrolled in the first year of the Master's Degree Course in Stem disciplines for the Academic Year 2021/2022 with ten scholarships, each 3 thousand euros. Moreover, Confindustria Associations and companies will activate courses to accompany female students in the world of work. "In Italy, the gender gap in scientific subjects is still very significant: young Stem female graduates are 16.2% of the total, compared to 36.8% of male graduates", commented the president of Confindustria, Carlo Bonomi. Here for more information. 

  

Unioncamere: female entrepreneurship slows down, but more solid recovery is expected after the pandemic 

Women in top positions on the rise: + 93 thousand compared to 10 years ago. Green light for "Giro d'Italia delle donne che fanno impresa". Between January and September 2021, the new women-led companies registered in Italian chambers of commerce exceeded those registered in the same period of 2020 (+ 7 thousand) but are well below the levels reached in the first nine months of 2019 (-9.200). New female entrepreneurship is recovering, but the pandemic continues to weigh on women's desire to become self-employed. The Unioncamere and InfoCamere Women's Entrepreneurship Observatory outlines this scenario. Despite the increase in registrations, the share of new female companies fell by two percentage points, from 27.1 to 25.4%, between 2020 and 2021. On the other hand, female CEOs increased by 93 thousand units, passing from 23.2 to 24.4%. The positions of director held by women are today just under one million and 140 thousand compared to one million and 50 thousand of 10 years ago. This scenario and the difficulties that female enterprises face due to the health emergency are the backgrounds to "Giro d'Italia delle donne che fanno impresa", the itinerant initiative promoted by Unioncamere with the Committees for female entrepreneurship of the Chambers of Commerce. Here to learn more. 

Local Authorities 

 

ANCI: Digital Municipalities and PagoPA, transactions for 2.5 billion 

"In the first ten months of 2021, the payment services integrated by the municipal administrations on pagoPA recorded approximately 19 million transactions on the platform, for a value of almost € 2.5 billion, tripled compared to the same period of the previous year ". These data and trends were revealed during the Anci Assembly to describe the extent of the revolution underway: the relationship between citizens and PA is now increasingly facilitated and conveyed by digital tools, thus bringing the state machinery closer to people. 37,000 services available to citizens through the IO app are the measure of a revolution in full swing, with TARI and school fees payable via app or personal certificates downloadable for free simply by using the SPID code. Here to learn more. 

NRRP resources and challenges, Anci and Mef organise a series of meetings in the Municipalities 

The European perspective and the role of NRRP in the context of the Next Generation EU is the focus of the meetings organised by Anci and Mef to illustrate the main lines of action, the resources, and the challenges municipalities have to face within the National Recovery and Resilience Plan. The meetings will explain the general framework of the Plan, the role of local authorities in its implementation and the related reporting and control activities. In detail, the meetings will also try to analyse the support measures for small municipalities in inland/mountain areas provided by the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP). Here for more information. 

NRRP: 2.8 billion euros allocated for the PinQua program through 159 projects  

€ 2.82 billion have been allocated to implement 159 proposals for urban regeneration and public housing projects presented by Regions, Municipalities and Metropolitan Cities. The Decree of 7 October 2021, n. 383, signed by the Minister of Infrastructures and Sustainable Mobility, Enrico Giovannini, after the registration by the Court of Auditors, will allocate 2.8 billion of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) and about 20 million deriving from 2019 and 2020 residual funds to implement the PinQua program (National Innovative Housing Quality Program). The planned interventions aim at reducing housing discomfort by increasing public housing, regenerating the socio-economic fabric of urban centres, improving accessibility, functionality and safety of degraded spaces and places, often located in the suburbs. Here for more information. 

The world of MEF 

 

 MEF tax and social security revenues grew by 9.7% in the first 9 months of 2021 

The MEF announced that tax and social security revenues in the first nine months of the year increased by 9.7% (+45,655 million €) compared to the same period of 2020. The figure considers the increase of 11, 5% (+ € 35.432 million) in tax revenues and 6.3% (+ € 10.223 million) in social security revenues. It is important to highlight that the comparison between the result of the first nine months of 2021 and the corresponding period of the previous year presents elements of inhomogeneity due to the measures adopted by the Government to face the health emergency, including suspensions, reductions or the recovery of tax payments. Here the press release by Mef. 

Mef: electronic invoicing, taxable base of 321 billion 

According to MEF data, the VAT base resulting from electronic invoicing is constantly increasing, + 20.1%, equal to 321 billion, in the first eight months compared to the same period of 2020. The increase was more significant for self-employed people (+ 21.1%) than for companies (+ 20.0%). August registered a growth of 19.4%. The monthly increase was greater for companies (+ 19.8%) than for professionals (+ 13.5%). Construction (+ 33.4%) and manufacturing (+ 29.0%) recorded the largest percentage increases in taxable income. On the contrary, extraterritorial organizations and bodies (-91.4%) and activities concerning domestic work employers, including condominiums (- 47.3%), suffered the heaviest losses. Here the Note by the Finance Department.