#SoseXpress - Press Review 15/21 january 2022

There can be no real recovery from this pandemic without a broad recovery in the labour market. To be sustainable, this recovery must be based on the principles of decent work, including health and safety, equity, social protection and social dialogue.  

Guy Ryder, ILO Director-General, on the occasion of the presentation of the "World Employment and Social Outlook Trends 2022. 

The Debate of Ideas  

 

More public debt, less growth?  

Economists and political economy experts have been debating for many years what a high public debt really represents for a country. Can this really affect economic growth?  A recent survey conducted by Philipp Heimberger (economist of the Institute of International Economic Studies in Vienna and the Comprehensive Institute of Economic Analysis, Johannes Kepler University Linz)on the many studies carried out in recent years to assess the thesis put forward by Reinhart and Rogoff in 2010, according to which economic growth is very affected if the debt/GDP ratio exceeds 90%, argues that overall they do not support that thesis and draws conclusions relevant to the most appropriate European policies in the face of the very high debts accumulated in the pandemic.   

Enterprises recovered from workers: a positive balance for the state  

From the economic and financial crisis to the present day, the experiences of companies recovered by workers have multiplied. These are companies taken over by workers in cooperative form to avoid bankruptcy or solve problems related to the intergenerational passage of the former property.  In addition to saving jobs. otherwise at risk, the phenomenon of the recovered companies has made it possible to start processes of real re-socialization of workplaces by workers. A useful tool both for companies already recovered from workers, both for companies in crisis that could save the jobs and skills accumulated by their employees turning into a cooperative. But even for the State it is an excellent deal, as shown by a budget between state investments and tax returns. 

 

Studies, research and numbers 

 

Istat: inflation rises to 3.9% in December. Food prices doubled  

Even in December, inflation continues to rise. The consumer price index is +3.9% on an annual basis and +0.4% on a monthly basis. According to the definitive data of Istat, to increase more are the prices of the energetic assets, even if with a tendency in slowing down (from +30.7% to +29.1%), but they fly high also those of the alimentary goods, is worked (from +1.4% of November to +2%) is not worked (from +1.5% to +3.6%), those of durable goods (from +0.4% to +0.8%) and those of recreational, cultural and personal care services (from +1.9% to +2.3%). The underlying inflation, continues Istat, net of energy and fresh food, and that net of energy goods accelerated to +1.5% and +1.6% respectively (both from +1.3% in November). 

 Oxfam: the consequences of the pandemic that exacerbates inequalities  

 During the Covid-caused pandemic, the ten richest men doubled their fortunes, while the incomes of 99% of humanity decreased again, with over 160 million more people forced into poverty. This is what Oxfam’s latest Report "The Inequality Pandemic" states that inequality is contributing to the rise of phenomena such as lack of access to treatment, the worsening climate crisis, hunger and gender violence. The analyses were disseminated at the opening of the World Economic Forum in Davos.  

Bank of Italy: 2021 recovery of male employment, women penalized  

The recovery of 2021 favored male employment. There are still wide margins of recovery for women whose performance showed signs of relative weakness even before the health emergency. This is what emerges from the report "The labour market: data and analysis" prepared by the Bank of Italy together with the Ministry of Labour and Anpal. With regard to the sectors, the report stresses that in industry the marked acceleration of construction has compensated for the slowdown in manufacturing. In the 2020-21 is activated approximately 560 thousand new places of dependent job, regarding the 605 thousand of the biennium precedence, while the lay-offs have remained on average modest levels (27 thousand contracts closed every month with this causal in the average of 2021, -40% compared to 2019).

Istat: 10.6 million families received aid with Covid crisis  

The year 2020, the year of the onset of the pandemic, was marked by exceptional economic and social changes. A drastic decline in lockdown-related activity resulted in a fall in employment and an increase in inactivity, which government interventions mitigated, offering credit support to millions of households. As a result of the measures introduced by the Government, it appears that about 10.6 million households (40.7% of the total) have obtained at least one transfer and that, among the beneficiary households, 15.2% have received more than one type of subsidy. This is the photograph taken by an ISTAT report about the year of the outbreak of the health crisis. 

Original news Confindustria, the increases of gas and electricity risk to block the enterprises  

The increase in raw materials prices on international markets is widespread and widespread: from oil with a +13% to copper with +57%. Recently, there has been a huge rise in natural gas in Europe (+723%), which has moved on to the price of electricity in Italy, raising the energy costs of industrial companies: 37 billion expected in 2022, from 8 in 2019. An unsustainable level that threatens the closure of many companies. The sharp increase in costs for Italian companies resulted in a sharp squeeze in operating margins, given the difficulty of passing on commodity price increases to customers. This is the alarm launched by the Centro Studi Confindustria.  

Istat: Italy, foreign trade in November export +2.7% m/m import +1.7%  

ISTAT estimates a cyclical growth for both foreign trade flows for November 2021, more intense for exports (+2.7%) than for imports (+1.7%). The increase in exports on a monthly basis is due to the increase in sales to both areas, EU (+2.4%) and non-EU (+2.9%), and is driven in particular by the sales of intermediate goods and energy, Istat points out. In the quarter September-November 2021, compared to the previous quarter, export grew by 1.9%, import by 4.5%. In November 2021, exports grew by 16.8% on an annual basis; growth was stronger in the EU (+19.9%) than in non-EU markets (+13.4%). Imports show a more marked trend increase (+27.9%), involving both the EU area (+21.6%) and, to a much wider extent, the extra-EU area (+37.8%). 

Intesa Sanpaolo: gold, in Italy the sector exceeds pre-Covid levels, +13.1% of turnover in 2021  

In the summer months the Italian goldsmith sector confirmed the good dynamics already recorded at the beginning of the year and overall in the first nine months it has already been above pre-Covid levels, both in terms of turnover (+13.1%) and in terms of exports in values (+6.9%) and quantity (+8.0%). The global demand for gold jewelry continued to grow even in the 3rd quarter 2021 (+33%) with an expected slowdown compared to growth in the first two quarters, which in 2020 were more affected by the decline related to the crisis. This is what emerges from a report by Intesa Sanpaolo on the Italian goldsmith sector in 2021.

ILO: jobs, 52 million fewer jobs on pre-Covid levels  

The ILO has scaled down the labour market recovery forecasts for 2022. With the report "World Employment and Social Outlook Trends 2022", the ILO warns of a slow and uncertain recovery, as the pandemic continues to have a significant impact on global labour markets. Indeed, the International Labour Organisation has revised downwards its forecasts for the recovery of the labour market in 2022, forecasting a global deficit of 52 million full-time jobs, compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. Global unemployment should remain above pre-COVID-19 levels at least until 2023. The level of 2022 is estimated at 207 million, compared to 186 million in 2019. Here a more in-depth analysis.   

 Cnel: job, in 20 months precariato increased of 5.4%  

 Fixed-term employees increased by 5.4%, from 2.9 million in February 2020 to 3 million and 67 thousand in October 2021. This is a larger number than the pre-pandemic one. Mandatory communications also show that in 2021 the share of employment relationships ceased, with a duration of less than or equal to one year, was 74.7% in the first quarter and 82.3% in the third quarter, while contracts with a duration between 1 and 3 days grew from 265 thousand to 433 thousand (+63.4%) in the same period. This is what emerged during the joint meeting of the Committees for Economic Policy, Social Policy and Sustainable Development, EU Policies and International Cooperation of the National Council for Economic and Labour (CNEL)following the findings of the XXIII Labour Market Report and the contributions of Banca d'Italia, Fondazione Di Vittorio and Inapp. 

Istat: growth in construction production, top since May 2012  

For November 2021, Istat announced that the seasonally adjusted index of construction production increased by`1% compared to October. This is the fourth consecutive cyclical increase and the index reaches its highest level since May 2012. On average for the quarter of September-November 2021, construction production grew by 3.4% compared to the previous quarter. 

The Voice of the Stakeholder

 

Confcommercio launches "Imprendigreen" in order to value the sustainable behaviors of enterprises and associations  

To qualify and strengthen the sustainable commitment of businesses and associations of commerce, tourism, services, transport and professions by enhancing and promoting environmentally virtuous behaviour. This, in summary, the objective of "Imprendigreen", the initiative of Confcommercio throughout the national territory that constitutes the backbone of the broader confederal project "Confcommercio for sustainability" with which the Confederation intends to make its contribution to achieving the objectives of the UN Agenda 2030. In detail, the initiative aims to disseminate widespread behaviors increasingly "green" that can also represent an opportunity for development for the companies themselves, with actions aimed at raising awareness, to train and accompany enterprises in the transition from a linear economy to a circular economy. 

Confesercenti: risk of consumption of 6.4 billion euros  

The new variant Omicron and the increase in energy costs bring the recovery back six months: we are faced with a new slowdown in consumption triggered by the fourth wave. This could put at risk, in the first half of 2022, about 6.4 billion euros of expenditure, a blow that would effectively cancel out the recovery that accrued in the second part of 2021 and shift to the beginning of 2024 the recovery of pre-Aandemic levels. It is the alarm launched by Confesercenti that publishes the results of a survey carried out with Ipsos according to which 51% of consumers declare to avoid using bars or restaurants, or in any case to have reduced the attendance of public establishments and clubs. 32%, one in three Italians, has instead given up on a trip or has cancelled a holiday already booked. An identical share, always 32%, has avoided or reduced purchases in stores for fear of gatherings.  

Coldiretti: foreign trade, historical food record at 52 mld  

Historical record in the Italian agri-food exports that record a jump of 11% for a value close to 52 billion for the entire 2021, the maximum ever. Coldiretti announces this on the basis of the new ISTAT data relating to foreign trade in the first eleven months of the year that highlight the positive impact on foreign sales of Made in Italy. Among the main customers of agri-food products there are the United States which are in second place with an increase of 15%, positive trend also in Germany which ranks first among the Italian food importing countries with an increase of 7%, and in France (+7%) which is stable in third place while in fourth there is Great Britain. 

Confartigianato: in 2021 expensive-commodities higher than the last 47 years   

Second the deepening "Enterprises and energy", cured from the Office Studies of Confartigianato, for the quotations of the commodities non-energetiche 2021 has closed with an increase, estimated in dollars, of 32.3% regarding the year precedence, the highest growth rate in 47 years. At the same time there are strong tensions also on the prices of energy commodities, resulting from the derailment of the price of natural gas in Europe and the heavy impact on electricity prices. 

Confcommercio, dear energy: +76% for the tertiary sector, the bill almost 20mld  

The high energy is heavily affecting businesses of commerce, hospitality and catering that in 2022, despite the containment measures already adopted by the Government, will have to support an increase of the energetic bill with a total expense for gas and electricity that will go from 11,3 billion euros of 2021 to 19,9 billion (+76%). This is what emerges from a study by Confcommercio, carried out in collaboration with Nomisma Energia.

Assoturismo-Confesercenti: tourism, 2021 closed with over 40% fewer visitors   

 The tourism sector in 2021 recorded a decrease of 40% compared to 2019: -178 million presences and -67 billion in domestic tourism consumption. With the big cities driving in negative the ranking with a loss of almost 3 out of 4 presences. So the estimates of Assoturismo-Confesercenti on Istat data. The category "big cities", which in the year before the pandemic had recorded about a fifth of the presences of the entire national territory, recorded in 2021 a -73,4% and recovers only marginally in comparison with 2020 (+2,8% the presences). Very bad also the cities of art, which in 2020 had recorded a collapse of almost -55% of presences. Despite the recovery compared to 2020 of +29.8%, close 2021 with a sharp drop compared to 2019, -40.9%. 

Original news Conjuncture Confcommercio: it continues slowing economy  

The Confcommercio Studies Office in the monthly economy, announces that in January, GDP should record a reduction of 2% on a monthly basis. In the annual comparison, growth is expected to be 4.4%, a sharp decline compared to the previous months. The deceleration of the economy is accompanied by a sharp rise in inflation. For the month of January the increase in consumer prices will be of`1,5% on a monthly basis and of 4,7% on an annual basis. The estimate, which in its monthly size brings back the calendar of almost 40 years, while largely reflecting the exceptional increases allowed for the regulated energy component, is also affected by the price increases of certain consumer goods and services which have been under pressure for some time. 

Innovation 

"Hybrid" shopping, cloud and artificial intelligence are the keys to the breakthrough  

Buying experiences that integrate physical and digital channels are increasing. And 62 percent of users who have been involved in a survey of more than 19,000 consumers on a global scale are willing to make new purchases to help reduce the environmental impact. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Cloud are now a fundamental combination to meet the needs and expectations of the consumer 2022, in search of increasingly hybrid experiences and that meet sustainability criteria. This is what emerges from the latest study entitled "Consumers want it all" conducted by the IBM Institute for Business Value (IBV), in collaboration with the National Retail Federation (NRF).

Businesses: Nomisma, 47% companies selling on Amazon has taken on new professional figures  

Over 18,000 small and medium-sized Italian companies have used Amazon to grow their business in 2020. For 63% of these companies, online has become the main sales channel. On the employment front, 47% of the companies in the sample stated that they had included new professionals within their workforce that they would not otherwise have hired. This is what emerges from the study "The contribution of the Amazon marketplace in business innovation", edited by Nomisma and commissioned by Amazon on a sample of 358 small and medium-sized companies that sell on the site. The most sought after figures by these companies are those with skills in the field of e-commerce (62%), logistics (49%) and computer science in general (46%).  

 

Gender Equity 

Coding Girls: IT against the gender gap  

Italy is in 114th place out of 156 countries for women’s participation in work, according to data from the Global Gender Gap Report 2021, with a strong worsening after the pandemic, which affected women more than men. In education, the situation of women is better than that of men (for school results or university participation, for example), but there are few girls in science and technology and this implies, in the following years, lower employment and lower wages. To promote the participation of girls in the study in these areas, for years an educational program called Coding Girls, sponsored by the Foundation "Digital World"a program born in 2014 that aims to increase the interest of the new generations in Stem subjects (science, technology, engineering, mathematics).

Local authorities  

 

Public accounts: 2.6 billion funds allocated to municipalities by year-end maneuvers  

Research carried out by the Centro Studi Enti Locali shows that the resources of the municipalities deriving from the Budget Law for 2022 total about 2.6 billion euros. This sum will increase considerably for the following years because in many cases the commitments already undertaken by these maneuvers are characterized by a progressive increase that now leads to expect the arrival in the coffers of Italian municipalities, of 2.7 billion in 2023, just under 3.3 billion in 2024, 2.8 billion in 2025, and so on until 2030. The disbursements will finance, in particular, projects for public works, schools, the environment, culture, digitalisation, immigration, gender equity, social and public employment. 

Nprr: investments of Mims in the South for about 34 billion, equal to 56% of total resources  

Investments in the regions of the Mezzogiorno totalled EUR 33.8 billion out of 61.4 billion of the resources of the NRP and the National Complementary Plan (NCP), allocated to the Ministry of Sustainable Infrastructure and Mobility (Mims). This represents 56% of the allowable resources territorially, a share well above the 40% to be allocated to the South provided for in the PNRR.  

Local finance, 300 million to municipalities in 2022 and 2023 for extraordinary maintenance of roads, sidewalks and urban furniture  

The ministry of the Interior with a note has officialized the signature of the decree "Allocation to the municipalities of contributions for investments finalized to the extraordinary maintenance of the communal roads, the sidewalks and the urban furnishing" which allocates to the municipalities the total sum of 200 million euros for the year 2022 and 100 million euros for the year 2023. The notice is currently being published in the Official Journal of the Italian Republic. The measure is provided for by Article 1, paragraph 407, of the law 30 December 2021, n. 234, "Budget of the State for the financial year 2022 and multiannual budget for the three-year period 2022-2024". 

Anpr, online all Italian municipalities  

Completed the path to bring all Italian municipalities into the National Registry of the resident population (Anpr). The personal data of 67 million citizens are now "stored" in a single platform. By accessing with Spid, Cie or Cns you can download 14 different types of certificates. Italians living in the 7,903 municipalities of the country and those abroad registered at the AIRE can verify and ask for the possible correction of their personal data, print certificates and use the services available online, in an easy and safe way.    

Bank of Italy: P.A digitalization still slow and lacking  

The path of change of administrations through digitalization "it is not always easy and disappointing, in a scenario increasingly marked by the need to reduce the costs of the PA, the lack of financial resources (65% of institutions) and appropriate professional figures (58% of institutions), organizational difficulties, the persistence of a bureaucratic administrative culture". This is what the Bank of Italy states in the VII Survey "Computerization in Local Governments". The data collected by the survey indicate that, "despite the progress achieved, the path towards the country’s growth model through the digital economy is still largely to be achieved". Training initiatives are still limited and only two-thirds of institutions have provided training in digitisation for less than 20% of staff. 

 

Mondo MEF  

Mef, in the first 11 months of 2021 revenues in increase of 9.7%  

Tax revenues and contributions in the first eleven months of the year show overall a growth of 9.7% (+€58,691 million) compared to the same period of the year 2020. The figure takes into account the positive variation of 11.9% (+ 47,784 million euros) in tax revenues and the increase in contribution revenues of 5.4% (+10,907 million euros). The MEF makes it known, highlighting that the comparison between the result of the first eleven months of 2021 and that of the corresponding period of the year 2020 has elements of unevenness that reflect the effects of the measures adopted by the Government to address the health emergency which include suspensions, reductions or recovery of payments for different types.   

Revenue Agency, from 2022 stop to charging   

Approved by a decision of the Director of the Revenue Agency, the new model of payment file for the loads entrusted to the Agent of collection from 1 January 2022 and that provides no more collection charges. Instead, the debtor will be charged for the costs of enforcement and supervision procedures and for the costs of notifying the payment file and any further collection. The collection agents will have to use the new template for the cargo folders entrusted to them from 1 January 2022, while for the loads entrusted until 31 December 2021 the collection charges will continue to be due to the extent and according to the breakdowns provided by the previous legal provisions.