#SoseXpress - Press Review 11/17 september 2021

We expect 19 countries to return to pre-pandemic levels later in the year, with the others to follow shortly. In the last quarter, euro zone growth outstripped both that of the United States and that of China. 

Ursula Von der Leyen - President of the European Commission in her speech to the European Parliament on the State of the Union 2021. 

The debate of ideas 

 

Recovery, Centro Studi Enti Locali: only together small municipalities will be protagonists  

Which role will local authorities have in the Recovery Plan? They should play a leading role in defining reforms, interventions, and investments to be complete by 2026 thanks to the extraordinary resources allocated. In a report prepared for Adnkronos on this topic, the “Centro Studi Enti Locali” (CSEL) underlines that only collaboration can make small municipalities protagonists.  Local authorities can access the NRRP resources through calls for tenders and national projects. Still, the obstacles are not few and have been stressed on several occasions: from the timeline to the average age of public employees. The solution to these critical issues is to create a network between local authorities through shared planning to seize the opportunities provided by the Recovery Plan and ensure higher standards and lower costs. Here to learn more. 

 

Studies, research and numbers 

 

SMEs: SOSE, the government support reduced liquidity shortage by 57.3 billion 

Sose and the Department of Finance analysed the impact of the Covid shock on the liquidity of firms with less than 250 employees and a 50 million turnover. The results highlighted how the measures introduced by the Government limited the liquidity shortage that firms would have experienced from 83.7 billion (75.5 for corporations and 8.2 for partnerships) to 26.4 billion (24.5 for corporations and 1.9 for partnerships). The paper, presented to the Italian Society of Public Economy, considers the effects of the Cura Italia, Liquidità, Rilancio, Ristori, Ristori Bis, Ter and Quater decrees. Here to learn more. 

Confindustria: The Italian economy continues to recover, but infections and commodities remain factors of uncertainty 

In 2021 the Italian economy continues to recover rapidly. After the rebound in the second quarter (+2,7%), the main indicators show stability in the third quarter despite the shortage of raw materials and semi-manufactures and the uncertainty caused by new infections. In the issue of September Congiuntura Flash by Confindustria forecasts a 6,0% increase in GDP in 2021. In the second quarter, private consumption recovered (+12 billion, equal to +5,0%), driven by services (travels and out-of-home consumption). The study reveals that the expectations for the third quarter are improving and about half of the savings accumulated during the lockdown and amounting to 26 billion according to Confindustria Study Centre are still to spend. Here to learn more. 

Istat: inflation up by 2% in August, the highest level since January 2013 

In August, the rate of change of the Italian consumer price index for the whole nation (Nic), including tobacco, increased from + 1.9% of the previous month to 0.4% on a monthly basis and 2% on an annual basis. Istat underlines that this is the highest level since January 2013. Preliminary estimates were 2.1% and +0.5%, respectively. The slight inflation speed-up, Istat explains, is mainly due to the increasing prices of energy products (from + 18.6% in July to + 19.8%) and particularly those of the non-regulated component (from + 11.2% to + 12.8%). The estimated inflation for 2021 is + 1.7% for the general index and + 0.9% for the core component. Here the note by Istat. 

The Bank of Italy: In July, the government debt peaked at 2,725.9 billion euros 

The Government debt of Italy reaches a new record. According to the data published by the Bank of Italy in” The Public Finances: Borrowing Requirement and debt”, the government debt increased in July by 29.7 billion euros compared to the previous month. It reached 2,725.9 billion due to the increased Treasury’s liquid balance (from 36.3 to 120.8 billion), which compensated largely Local governments’ cash surplus (7.1 billion). The effect of premiums and discounts at issuance and redemption, the revaluation of inflation-linked securities and the change in exchange rates have increased the debt by 0.4 billion overall. Here the note by The Bank of Italy. 

Eurostat: industrial production up by 1.5% in the euro area and 1.4% in the EU. 

Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, estimates an increase of 1.5% of the seasonally adjusted industrial production rate in the euro area in July 2021 and by 1.4% in the EU, compared to the 0.1% decrease in June 2021 (revised from -0.3%). The figure exceeded the expected increase of 0.6% significantly. The growth slows down on an annual basis with an increase in production of 7.7% more than expectations (+6.3%), but lower than+10.1% in the previous month (revised upward from 9.7%). In the European Union (EU27), the increase was 1.4% on a monthly basis compared to +0% in June, while on an annual basis, production increased by 8.3% compared to +10.6% in the previous month. Here Eurostat press release section. 

Istat: dramatic fall in tourism spending, 35 billion less than in 2020 

In 2020, overnight stays by foreign tourists in Italy were 54.6% less than in 2019, with tourism spending of 23.7 billion euros, a loss of about 35 billion euros compared to the previous year. Domestic tourist consumption fell by 32.2%, a decrease of over 63 billion euros and 31 billion in value-added that fell well below the levels of 2010 (68 billion in 2020 against 80 billion). According to preliminary Istat estimates, the sharp decline in tourism in Italy caused a loss in value-added of over a quarter. Here the note by Istat. 

Sace: in 2021, “Made in Italy” export up by 11.3%, as in pre-covid time 

According to the 2021 Export Report by Sace, the rebound in the global economy will drive the “Made in Italy” export, which will grow by 11.3% and return to pre-pandemic levels already in 2021, when sales reach 482 billion. In 2022, the sales will increase by 5.4% and 4% in the following two years. Exceeding the pre-crisis average rate by about one percentage point (+3.1% on an annual average, between 2012 and 2019), in 2024, goods exports will increase to 550 billion. However, the Report underscores that an ineffective containment of the pandemic would force the global economy to slow down. Here to learn more. 

Istat: in the second quarter, employment up by +338,000 units and GDP by 2.7% 

In the second quarter of 2021, employment returns to grow, recording an increase of 338 thousand units (+ 1.5%) compared to the previous quarter and 523,000 units compared to the same period of 2020. Still, compared to the first quarter, the number of unemployed (-55 thousand, -2.2%) and inactive aged 15-64 (-337 thousand, -2.4%) decreased with an overall drop of 678,000 units compared to the pre-pandemic period. However, Istat underlines that the increase in employment concerns only temporary workers. According to ISTAT estimates, GDP also increased by 2.7% on a monthly basis and by 17.3% on an annual basis. Here the Note by Istat. 

The Revenue Agency: in the second quarter real estate up by 73% 

In the second quarter of 2021, real estate increased by 73.4%, while trade in the tertiary-commercial sector recorded a + 97.9% compared to the same period of 2020. In the second quarter, the residential real estate market registered a significant increase in volume as the production (+ 85.4%) and agricultural (+ 88.1%) sectors. The statistical report of the Revenue Agency Real Estate Market Observatory revealed these data highlighting that the increase concerns all geographical areas with peaks in the municipalities of the islands (excluding main cities). However, also the main towns show a very positive trend, with + 54.6% compared to the second quarter of 2020. Here for more information. 

Eurostat: More than 4 out of 5 ICT-educated workers are men 

In 2020, men accounted for 83% of the 2.7 million people in the EU who were employed and who had an information and communication technology (ICT) education. Eurostat highlights that 66% of employees were aged between 15 and 34 in 2020, while 34% were aged between 35 and 74 years. Among the EU countries, Latvia recorded the highest share of men in the total number of employed persons with ICT education (94%), followed by Slovenia (90%), Belgium and the Czech Republic (both 89%) and Poland. (88%). Italy records an average of just over 80%. Here to learn more. 

Istat: strong growth in July in imports and exports 

In July, Istat estimates economic growth for foreign trade, more intense for outgoing (+ 2.6%) than ingoing flows (+ 1.3%). Exports grew by 16.1% on an annual basis, with a sustained increase to EU countries (+ 14.9%) and non-EU countries (+ 17.4%). Imports recorded an even more marked increase (+ 23.8%) in both EU (+ 23.2%) and non-EU countries (+ 24.4%). According to Istat, export growth in July was driven by sales to non-EU markets. Imports grew almost in all sectors. Here the Note by Istat. 

Inps: in the first half of the year, hirings increased by 23%, but not for permanent contracts 

The INPS Observatory on precarious work confirms the positive trend of employment in June 2021. In the first half of 2021, hirings in the private sector amounted to 3,323,000, increasing by 23% compared to the same period of 2020, following the positive trend of March 2021. The increase concerned all types of contracts but was more significant for seasonal (+ 68%) and temporary contracts (+ 34%); on the other hand, permanent contracts remained almost stable (+ 2%). In January and February, permanent contracts decreased by 32%. Finally, a boom (+ 29%) in layoffs was recorded in the second quarter while workers under Wages Guarantee Fund (Cig) fell below one million. Here the INPS Press Releases section. 

Istat: in the second quarter new businesses increase, bankruptcies down 

In the second quarter of 2021, new businesses' registrations show a further increase (+ 3.2%) after the rise in the previous quarter. In the same period, bankruptcies decreased by 8.9% compared to the first quarter, after the rise recorded in the previous quarters. According to Istat, new registrations exceeded the pre-crisis levels (i.e., 2019) on an annual basis only in construction, information, communication and financial services, real estate and professional activities. Accommodation and catering services pay the highest price of the crisis. Here the Note by Istat. 

 

The voice of Stakeholders 

 

Confartigianato Research Department: Made in Italy recovers among SMEs in the food (+ 13.1%) and furniture (+ 6.5%) sectors, fashion lags (-8.8%) 

In the first half of 2021, the Italian economy continued to recover. Exports exceeded by 4.1% the corresponding level of 2019, outperforming Germany (+ 1.2%) and France (-7.0 %). Compared to the same period of 2019 before the pandemic, foreign trade in the manufacturing sector grew by + 3.4%, while remained stable in the food, fashion, furniture, wood, metals, and other manufacturing sectors, improving the performance of the first quarter of the year (+ 0.7% manufacturing and -2.8% for SMEs compared to the same period of 2019). The Confartigianato Research Department revealed these data on exports in the report " Dentro la ripresa – Le tendenze dell’export (Behind the recovery - Export trends)". Here for more information. 

Confesercenti: uncertainty curbs consumption; Italians postpone 59 billion of spending 

The liquidity available to households is growing, but uncertainty is holding back the restart of consumption, pushing Italians to "save" 59 billion euros. Cash deposits increased by 74 billion. The phase of income contraction does not seem to be over yet: among self-employed workers, the share of households with a lower income than before the pandemic is still over 45%, while the percentage of employees and retirees with a family income lower than the pre-pandemic values stopped below 30 and 20%, respectively. Here to learn more. 

Confturismo-Confcommercio Observatory: Italians' holidays in the Covid summer. 

Holidays concentrated in the same period and the same places, with reduced budgets and shorter stays. Out of 20.5 million, 71% took at least a holiday of 5 nights or more, while 18% allowed themselves only one or more shorter vacations, always including overnight stays, 5% chose only day trips, and 6% are waiting for September, but they are not yet sure to leave. Compared to the 25 million pre-pandemic holidaymakers, 4.5 million have not spent their holidays away from home. The Confturismo-Confcommercio Observatory provides this snapshot of summer holidays in Italy based on Italian tourists' confidence. Here to learn more. 

Confartigianato Research Department: building and super bonus 110% drive the recovery

According to the Confartigianato Research Department, " investments are recovering, supported by tax incentives, allowing an overall recovery of construction and digital economy." Although in the first quarter of 2021 the economy appears at -4.8%, still lower than in the first half of 2019, construction has grown, recording an increase in value-added of 10.1 % and information and communication services of 7.9% compared to pre-Covid levels. As regards the international sphere, Confartigianato suggests that the performance of Italian construction is far superior to Germany (+ 0.8%), while France (-5.8%) and Spain (-17.8%) lag. Here the Note by Confartigianato. 

Federmeccanica: production volumes at pre-pandemic levels, but raw material prices are alarming 

According to the economic survey on the Italian engineering industry by Federmeccanica, the metalworking sector recovered pre-Covid production volumes. Between April and June 2021, production grew by 2.1% compared to the previous quarter, after the increase of 1.3% recorded in January-March. On an annual basis, the growth is 47%. Still, the comparison with the second quarter of 2020 is strongly influenced by the low production levels recorded in April last year due to the lockdown and the interruption of production activities. However, 9 out of 10 companies suffer substantial uncertainty regarding the prices and availability of raw materials, which worsened the results of the analysis provided in the previous survey. Here to learn more. 

 

Innovation 

 

Ultra-broadband: Italy on the European podium of fiber networks 

According to the FTTH Council Europe, our country is at the top of the growth ranking of optical fiber networks with Germany, the UK and the Netherlands. With 16 million homes reached in 2021, Italy's growth rate from 2020 to the current year is estimated at 46%, but from 2020 to 2026, it will be a real boom with + 136%, equal to 26 million homes covered by the fiber. Although Italian fiber infrastructures are growing, Italians do not subscribe. Still, in 2026, as many as 19.8 million households will not subscribe to fiber despite being covered by the new networks. It is the worst result in Europe after that of Russia. Here to learn more. 

Anitec-Assinform: blockchain at + 20% in the next three years 

In 2020, the blockchain market increased by 26 million euros in Italy, with a double-digit year-on-year growth rate (+ 18%). Over the next three years (2021-2024), the growth rate is estimated at 20% and will be strongly conditioned by the implementation of the NRP. This snapshot is provided by the white paper " Attualità e prospettive della blockchain per la crescita dell’economia italiana," by Anitec-Assinform, the Confindustria association involving the leading ICT companies to promote the use of this technology for the growth of the country. According to the report, blockchain technology, together with cloud, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence and IoT will enable Italy's digital transformation. Here to learn more. 

Covid-19, Italy ranks fourth in the world for pandemic-themed cyberattacks 

In the first half of 2021, Italy ranked first in Europe and fourth in the world, with 28,208,577 cyberattacks. Our country is the fourth most affected in the world by cyber threats related to Covid-19. The figure emerges from “Attacks from all angles: 2021 Midyear cybersecurity report” by Trend Micro Research, the division of Trend Micro, a global leader in cybersecurity, specializing in Research & Development and the fight against cybercrime. In the first part of the year, cybercriminals targeted Italian organizations and users with 131,197 attacks, including spam e-mails, malware, and malicious pandemic-themed sites. In the ranking of Covid-19 threats, Italy is preceded only by the United States (1,584,337), Germany (832,750) and Colombia (462,005). Here for more information. 

Smart working: 64% of Italian firms fear cybercrime and data breach growth 

The use of smart working methods is growing, and, with it, the exposure of businesses to cyber threats and damage from data loss: as many as 64% of Italian firms today declare themselves more exposed than in the past to critical events related to loss of your data or cyber-attacks. According to Dell Technologies Global data protection index, 62% of enterprises are concerned about coping with malware and ransomware; 74% are aware of the increased exposure of their organization to data loss caused by cyber threats and the increase of remote employees. The highest figure is in the EMEA area (65%), followed by the UK (72%) and Germany (62%). Here to learn more. 

 

Gender equity 

 

Women20 Summit: "Redesigning the world with the vision of women." 

In Italy, the female employment rate in 2020 stood at 49%, against a European average of 62.5%. According to Eurostat estimates, our country today has one of the worst wage pay gaps between genders: 12%. In the 2021 Gender Gap Report of the World Economic Forum, Italy ranks sixty-second out of 156 economies. 

In this scenario, the companies that develop policies to support diversity and female inclusion make the difference. This issue was discussed during the Women20 Summit and confirmed that the challenge of female empowerment is substantial in many sectors, especially in those historically characterized by a strong male prevalence. Here for more information. 

 

Local Authorities 

 

Local authorities: the "toolbox" to design public services 

Providing increasingly simple, accessible, equitable, and inclusive services is the PAs' challenge in the coming months, according to the NRRP. In this critical process, the design of projects must solve complex problems, especially when the elements and actors involved are numerous and heterogeneous, as in the Public Administration. In this regard, Designers Italia, an initiative promoted by the Department for the digital transformation of the Presidency of the Council of Ministers and the dall’Agenzia per l’Italia digitale (Italian acronym - AgID), developed a process, available online in the new "kit section." It consists of five macro-phases: organizing the project and its management; understand the context of the use of the public service; design the processes and touchpoints of the service; create the user interface of the service; validate the solutions obtained. Here and here to learn more. 

Municipalities plan public works and return to investing 

Public works are a key factor for economic recovery. Investments in this direction occupy an essential place also within the NRRP, and local authorities and municipal administrations are responsible for a significant part of public works. 

After years of stagnation, the prospects linked to the NRP present great opportunities, and the municipalities are now planning new public works.  The simplification of the rules governing the sector would help to resume investments. Here for more information. 

 

The world of MEF 

 

MEF: new VAT numbers at 2019 levels, boom in online commerce 

In the second quarter of 2021, 147,153 new VAT numbers were activated, an increase of 54.1% compared to the same period last year when extraordinary restrictions were imposed to contain the pandemic. The distribution by legal nature shows that 65.6% of new VAT registrations were operated by individuals, 21.1% by corporations, 3% by partnerships; the share of “non-residents” (essentially online trading companies) and that of “other legal forms” amount to over 10% of the total number. The Observatory on VAT numbers of the Finance Department published these data concerning the second quarter of 2021. Based on the classification by production sector, commerce records the highest number of new VAT registrations with 24.8% of the total, followed by professional activities with 16.2% and agriculture (11%). Here the press release by MEF. 

MEF: in the first seven months, tax and social security revenue up by 8.8% 

In the first seven months of the year, tax and social security revenues rose by 8.8% (+32,389 million euros) compared to the same period of 2020. The figure considers the increase of 10% (+24,204 million euros) in tax revenues and 6.4% in social security revenues  (+8,185 million euros). The first also includes local authorities' main taxes and corrective items. Mef specifies that "the comparison between the first seven months of 2021 and the corresponding period of the previous year presents elements of inhomogeneity due to the effects of the measures adopted by the Government to deal with the health emergency including suspensions, reductions or recovery of payments concerning different types of tax ". Here the press release by MEF. 

The Revenue Agency: from 1 October online access only by Spid, Cie and Cns 

The Revenue Agency communicated that from 1 October, taxpayers will access the online services of the Revenue Agency and the Revenue Agency-Collection only by Spid, Cie (Electronic Identity Card) and Cns (National Service Card). Nothing has changed for professionals and companies who will continue using their current Fisconline and Entratel credentials. Here to learn more.