#SoseXpress - Press Review 30 January/5 February 2021

 Whatever it takes

This a phrase that Mario Draghi, Premier appointed by President Mattarella, uttered as President of the European Central Bank during an investor forum in London, amid the deep European economic crisis and that in the last hours has returned to the fore. 

The Debate of Ideas 

 

Ideas for the Next Generation EU: digital infrastructures to relaunch production chains 

To relaunch the Italian economy through the digital transformation means to accelerate investments in digital infrastructures. Agenda Digitale proposes a detailed analysis defining some priorities aiming to support the innovation of the production chains. Where to start? From which supply chains and from which territories?  

Sustainability first to accelerate change 

An Ernst & Young summit scheduled for Monday 8 February at 2 pm will propose a path dedicated to sustainability. It will include a series of events on strategic themes concerning the economic recovery of the country. Representatives of institutions and companies will discuss sustainability as the key to recovery. 

Studies, research and numbers 

 

Waste Watcher Report, food waste decreased by 11.78% during the pandemic 

During Covid, Italy has reduced food waste and relaunched sustainable development. In 2020, only 27 kg of food per person (529 grams per week) ended up in the garbage, therefore 11.78% less (3.6 kg) than in 2019. 

The Report realized by the Waste Watcher International Observatory on Food and Sustainability (based on Ipsos survey) released these data during the 8th National Day for the Prevention of Food Waste. 

In 2020, 222 thousand tons of food were "saved" from waste in Italy, saving € 6 per capita, or € 376 million nationwide, in a whole year. 

Intesa & Sanpaolo Research: the furniture sector slightly up + 1.9% in the third quarter 

Among the sectors most affected by the health crisis, the furniture sector recorded a positive trend in turnover already from July (+ 1.9% annual rate of change, manufacturing sector -8.2% ), with a trend growth of 16% in the third quarter, against a decreasing average rate in the manufacturing sector. 

A study by the Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department revealed these data.

Household income + 0.6% in the OECD area and + 6.4% in Italy 

According to OECD estimates, household incomes rose averagely by 0.6% in the third quarter of 2020, compared to the preceding period despite a sharp 9.1% rise in real GDP per capita. 

In the third quarter, Italy recorded the highest increase in household income with + 6.4%. 

The United States (-4.2%) and Canada (-3.6%) recorded marked decreases, while in Great Britain household incomes grew by 5.1%, in Germany by 4.3%, and in France by 3.5%. According to Eurostat, retail trade rose by 2% on a monthly basis after a decrease of 5.7% in November (compared to the previous -6.1%). The data are better than forecasts. 

 

Eurostat, retail trade up by 2.0% in the Euro area

On an annual basis, retail trade increased by 0.6% after a 2.2% reduction in the previous month, higher than the consensus forecasts (+ 0.3%). 

In the 27 Member States, retail trade rose by 5.1% on a monthly basis (-10.2% in November), while they registered a 0.5% yearly increase compared to the previous 1.5% decrease. 

 

Cybersecurity, a € 1.37bn market up by 4% in 2020 

The Covid-19 crisis has curbed the growth of the Cybersecurity market but did not stopped it. In 2020, spending on Cybersecurity solutions reached a value of 1.37 billion euro, up by 4% compared to the previous year. These are the results of a study realized by the Cybersecurity & Data Protection Observatory of the School of Management of the Politecnico di Milano and published on February 3rd. 

In the year of the health emergency, the market held steady: 40% of large companies increased their Cybersecurity budget (51% in 2019), 19% reduced it (2% in the previous year). Cybersecurity Management is not very mature in Italy: only 41% of companies have a CISO, and only 69% have a Data Protection Officer. The others rely on external consultants. 

Istat, in December employment down by 101,000 units, 99,000 are women 

In December, the number of employed people returned to decline whereas an increase was recorded for both inactive and unemployed people. The crisis is affecting women harder and harder. According to Istat estimates, last month the number of employed people decreased by 101,000 units: 99,000 were women and 2,000 men. The decrease involved men and women, employees (-235 thousand) and self-employed (-209 thousand) and all age classes, except for over50 people, increased by 197 thousand units, mainly due to the demographic component. The employment rate dropped by 0.9 % in one year. Self-employed decreased by 79,000 units (80%) last month, employees by 23,000. 

 

SACE report, Export -12.5% in the first 9 months of 2020 

In the first 9 months of 2020, exports decreased sharply in almost the entire national territory compared to the same period in 2019. The sector collapsed by 12.5%. The first part of 2020 recorded the most severe decline. Between July and September, foreign trade registered a general recovery (+ 24.1%) and returned to the levels of the first quarter of 2020. These results emerge from the SACE report "Un territorio ricco di export nonostante la crisi" (A territory rich in exports despite the crisis). 

 

Istat, in 2020 more deaths than births 

In 2020 there were more deaths than births: 700,000 people died, and about 400,000 were born, with a negative natural rate of growth of 300,000 in Covid time. 400,000 births represent the lowest threshold never reached in 150 years after the National Unification. As well, 700,000 deaths occurred in the history of our country only in 1918, during the Spanish epidemic. 

Gian Carlo Blangiardo, President of Istat, underscores these data in the article "Primi riscontri e riflessioni sul bilancio demografico del 2020" (First findings and reflections on the demographic balance of 2020), based on data provided by The National register office for the resident population (ANPR). 

The Starteed Report on crowdfunding in Italy 

The Report realized by Starteed (a company that deals with financing through web platforms) on crowdfunding in Italy recorded 333.1 million euro collected in 2020, twice the amount of 164 million collected in 2019. The increase is mainly due to the development of Lending crowdfunding, the loans made online by small savers to enterprises. There are great expectations for 2021 as well. Crowdfunding has proved to be a useful tool that resists the unforeseen changes of a rapidly evolving economic and social sector. 

Istat, inflation again positive in January 2021 

Istat reported that inflation returned positive in January, with a + 0.5% increase on a monthly basis and + 0.2% on an annual basis. According to Istat preliminary estimates, the national consumer price index for the whole Nation (NIC), except for tobacco, increased from -0.2% in December to +0.5% on a monthly basis and +0.2% on an annual basis in January. Core inflation, excluding energy and unprocessed food, and inflation, excluding energy, slightly sped up respectively to +0.7% and +0.8% (both from +0.6% in the previous month). 

Istat, the 2021 basket for the Italian consumer price indices changes including masks, gels, and sharing scooters. For 2021, the main products added to the basket that represent the changes in household spending patterns are surgical masks, FFP2 masks, hand sanitizer gel, electric scooter sharing, certified e-mail service, and anti-abandonment device. These innovations reflect the evolution of household spending behaviors and the impact of events such as the pandemic still underway. 

 

Circular economy, dedicated initiatives in 62% of Italian companies 

In Italy, interest in the circular economy is growing rapidly. According to the data collected by the Politecnico di Milano and contained in the first Circular Economy Report 2021, 62% of companies have implemented their efforts or have supported other companies in their circular initiatives. Europe provided financial support to the transition to circular economy: Italy received € 157 million in subsidized loans and € 62.8 million in contributions to expenditure. Here to learn more. 

Istat tests the new "Social Mood on Economy Index" 

Istat released a new experimental index, based on Twitter data: The Social Mood on Economy Index. The index provides daily measures of Italian sentiment on the economy, derived from samples of public tweets in Italian, captured in real-time. The observation period currently covered by the index is between 10 February 2016 and 31 December 2021. The procedure analyzes around 58,000 tweets per day on average. 

Markit PMI: recovery of the Italian manufacturing sector in January 

According to the latest data released by MARKIT PMI, the recovery in the Italian manufacturing sector will extend to 2021, as the operating conditions improve at the highest rate since March 2018. Production growth was the fastest in the last three months, and the number of new orders has increased very rapidly. These factors, with the sharp rise in manufacturing production, contributed to the recovery. 

Istat: GDP -2% in the fourth quarter and -8.9% in 2020 

In 2020, the Italian GDP fell by 8.8% (raw data), while in the fourth quarter of 2020, it fell by 2% compared to the previous quarter and by 6.6% compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. Istat released these data based on the preliminary estimate in the fourth quarter of 2020 when the entire Eurozone registered a decrease of 0.7%, slightly better than expectations, indicating a reduction of 9%. For the period October-December, Istat estimated a decrease between 2% and 2.2%. 

Italian airports, 140 million passengers lost in 2020 

A drop of 72.6% compared to 2019: 7 out of 10 travelers did not fly. The Italian airport system closed 2020 with only 53 million passengers compared to 193 million in 2019: a dramatic decline for national airports that lost 140 million travelers in one year, or 72.6% of traffic. Assaeroporti released these data, which reveal more significant problems for non-EU destinations, which registered -81.2%. 

 

Federalimentare: "food and beverage" export holds out 

The second wave of the pandemic has deeply affected Made in Italy export worldwide, but the "food and beverage" holds out. A study by Federalimentare revealed that in the first ten months of 2020, food export stopped at + 0.1% (compared to 2019). However, it maintains a clear lead over the -12.0% of the national overall exports. An analysis by Federalimentare on Italian food export in the world, based on Istat data, revealed a 15.6% increase for pasta and + 12.0% for rice in 2020.

 

Assoreti Report - Record increase in savings during 2020 

The networks of financial advisors close 2020 with record volumes of net inflows on a monthly and annual basis. In December, the data collected by Assoreti showed positive net inflows of € 5.7 billion, with an increase of 37% y/y, due to net investments in asset management products (€ 5.8 billion; + 36.9% y/y). Therefore, the balance of 2020 is positive for 43.4 billion euro (+ 24.1% compared to 2019). 

MET report on exports, research, and innovation of Italian companies

Italian companies have used three strategies to react to the crisis: innovation, investment in research and development, new markets for exports. 

These results emerge in the 2020 Report realized by the Research Department of MET (Territorial Economy Monitoring). From 2008 to 2020, companies experienced significant changes. Still, innovating and investing in research and development has increased turnover and employment, even during the crisis.

The Voice of Stakeholders

 

Confesercenti: almost 85 ateco codes excluded from the 2020 ISAs 

The Revenue Agency published on its website the provision of last January 28 approving the 175 ISA forms in force for the 2020 tax period. 

The most significant novelty concerns three new causes of exclusion introduced to cope with the critical situations caused by the pandemic. The 2020 ISAs do not include 85 Ateco codes, such as bars, gyms, restaurants, ice cream parlors, etc.  Taxpayers who have suffered a 33 percent decrease in revenues in 2020 or have registered a VAT number after January 1, 2019, are also excluded. 

 

Confindustria, recovery only from mid-2021 if consumption starts again

The recovery of the Italian GDP is postponed. A real recovery could only occur from mid-2021 if the vaccination reduces the health emergency and restarts consumption. At the beginning of 2021, the gap in Italy between services still in crisis, and the industry withstanding the crisis was wider and caused divergent trends in consumer price dynamics. 

The Confindustria Research Department analyzed the economic data of January 2021, highlighting that the scenario has slightly improved for Italian exports following the slow-expanding world trade. The leading Eurozone economies closed 2020 better than expected.  

Confartigianato: 9 months of Covid-19 and self-employed decreased by 206,000 units 

Between February and December 2020, employment fell by 1.8%, with a reduction of 425,000 units. The current crisis is hitting young people hard. In December 2020, employment concerning people up to 35 years of age decreased by 6.4% compared to the previous month of February. Employment dynamics reveal a significant decline in self-employed work of 3.9% and a loss of 206,000 units, the minimum since 2004 when the last available time series began. 

The slight decrease of the Misery Index by Confcommercio  

In December, the macroeconomic assessment of social distress was 21.0, down by a tenth of a point compared to November. The reduction is probably due to the freezing of economic relations and the measures adopted to limit layoffs and support income. However, a part of the potentially active population stopped looking for a job a few months ago. According to estimates, some of these people will become more active in the next months and add to those who could lose their jobs (both employed and self-employed), worsening the indicator.

 Innovation 

 

Digital transformation must meet sustainability

An article by Techeconomy2030 outlines the main challenges that companies managing the digital transformation must face in the context of Industry 4.0. Digital transformation experts agree on the need to understand "soft" factors such as the availability of skills within this transformation process. Operational technologies and information technology must converge to meet the new digitalization needs. 

 Local Authorities

  

Waste disposal service: a decree regulates the municipal expenditure needs 

The methodology to estimate municipal standard expenditure needs for the waste disposal service in the regions with ordinary statute was revised. A decree by the President of the Council of Ministers approved the changes in December 2020. In line with the rules approved in 2016, the methodology adopted important innovations concerning separate collection, collection methods (at home or through collection centers), and the database extension, which will include 4 years.

The world of MEF 

 

Infrachallenge 2021: the G20 supports the initiative in the name of modernity and resilience

The Italian G20 Presidency supports the InfraChallenge 2021 initiative, organized by the Global Infrastructure Hub (GI Hub), to identify and develop innovative solutions globally, improve infrastructures, and make them more modern and resilient. The competition involves participants from all over the world. It aims to construct and maintain resilient infrastructures capable of improving living conditions by producing a sustainable social and environmental impact, especially in times of pandemics. 

Receipt lottery: first drawing scheduled for 11 March

The beginning of new receipt lottery, the free national lottery linked to purchases made by electronic payments (credit and debit cards and apps connected to payment circuits), was not homogeneous. All adult citizens residing in Italy who purchase goods and services by electronic payment instruments can participate. The first monthly drawing is scheduled for Thursday, 11 March. The authorized stores may show the blue logo to indicate the possibility of participating in the lottery. 

MEF: in January, the state borrowing requirement worsened by 6.9 billion 

In January 2021, the State Sector working balance has provisionally closed with a borrowing requirement of 3,900 billion euro, with a worsening of about 6.9 billion compared to the surplus recorded in the same month of the previous year (+3 billion). 

As MEF explained, the balance was largely affected by the contraction in fiscal revenues, due to cyclical effects and higher payments by public administrations and the Italian Social Security Institute (INPS) for benefits provided for in legislative provisions to contain the Covid-19 epidemic emergency.