#SoseXpress - Press Review 9/15 october 2021

Together we are laying the foundations of the Europe that we will leave for the next generations. The European Union of the coming years and decades, rooted in the daily life of each of our fellow citizens, must be stronger and more cohesive than that one we ourselves have inherited from its founders.

The President of the Republic, Sergio Mattarella, at the "Presidents' Award for municipal cooperation between Germany and Italy". 

The debate of ideas 

 

Nobel Prize in Economics awarded to Card, Angrist and Imbens 

The Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to the three university professors David Card, Joshua D. Angrist and Guido W. Imbens. The three scholars at prestigious American universities contributed with their studies to investigate the cause-and-effect relationship in the labour market and the correlations between events. Their field research disproved the opinion, widespread among economists until the early 1990s, that minimum wages and immigration bring down employment and that school resources have little importance on students' future incomes. Here an in-depth article by La Voce. Info. 

Nadef frees up resources: how to use them properly

The 2021 Nadef (Italian acronym for Update Note of Economic and Financial Document) announced the improvement of the macroeconomic conditions. The 2021 nominal GDP growth forecast has risen from 5.6% to 7.6%. Furthermore, in the 2022-2024 period, GDP is expected to grow further, albeit less than in 2021. The changed growth conditions also imply variations in the deficit (difference between revenues and expenses), which, in relation to GDP, are essential to comply with the European obligations. “The result is a changed macroeconomic framework that frees up additional resources to strengthen public fixed investments.” Here to learn more. 

 

Studies, research and numbers 

 

Istat: 2021 GDP up by 4.7% 

Based on the data of the first two quarters the audit of the annual national accounts confirms that Italian GDP will increase by 4.7% in 2021. Istat revealed this data in the monthly note on the Italian economy. In 2020, GDP decreased by 8.9% in volume, while in 2021 increased by 0.2% in the first quarter followed by a more marked growth in the second (+ 2.7%), higher than the average in the euro area and France and Germany. Here the note by Istat. 

Intesa Sanpaolo: the demand for gold jewellery is increasing worldwide 

According to the Focus on the gold jewellery sector elaborated by Intesa Sanpaolo, in the first half of 2021, the gold jewellery sector turnover grew by 80% compared to the low levels of the same period last year and is already 8% higher than in the same period of 2019.  The survey reveals that Italian exports of gold jewellery have already recovered to pre-crisis levels in quantity (+ 3.6%) and in values (+ 0.4%), driven above all by the United States. Here for more information. 

OECD: unemployment rate dropped slightly to 6.0% in August 2021. Italy stable at 9.3% 

The unemployment rate in the OECD area decreased slightly, to 6.0% in August 2021, from 6.1% in July. OECD explains: "although the rate remains 0.7 percentage points above the pre-pandemic rate in February 2020, the latest update represents a continuation of the downward trend from the peak of 8.8 % in April 2020, with the exception of April 2021 ". The number of unemployed workers across the OECD area continued to decline (by 1 million) in August 2021, reaching 39.7 million, still 4.3 million above the February 2020 level. The unemployment rate reached 7.5% in August 2021, down slightly from 7.6% in July, approaching pre-pandemic rates. It remained stable at 9.3% In Italy; it was 9.7% in February 2020 and peaked (10.1%) in April 2021. Here to learn more. 

Istat: industrial production slightly down but above pre-pandemic values 

Istat estimates that, in August, the seasonally adjusted industrial production index decreased by 0.2% compared to July. The calendar-adjusted industrial production index was unchanged compared with August 2020 (calendar working days being 22 versus 21 in August 2020). On an annual basis, intermediate goods (+ 4.9%) and capital goods (+ 4.4%) are growing sharply, while a decrease was recorded in consumer goods  (-5.4%) and, to a greater extent, energy (-6.6%). Considering the average of the June-August quarter, the production level grew by 1.1% compared to the previous three months. Here the note by Istat. 

The Bank of Italy: expenditure by Italian tourists abroad leaps upwards

According to the Bank of Italy's last survey, the expenditure by Italian tourists abroad increased last July after a 2020 summer characterized by still limited travel. The tourism balance of payments recorded a surplus of 1,439 million euros, compared to 1,658 million in the same month of the previous year. Italian travellers' expenditure abroad increased by 64.4 %, equal to 1.752 billion euros, while foreign tourists spent 3.191 billion (+17.2 %) in our country. The balance, although largely positive, decreased to 1,439 million euros compared to 1,658 million in July 2020. Here the report by the Bank of Italy. 

OECD: agreement for a global "minimum tax" for multinational enterprises

OECD announced a global minimum tax agreement ensuring that large companies pay a minimum tax rate of 15% signed by 136 of the 140 OECD member countries, including EU and G20 countries. Only Kenya, Nigeria, Pakistan and Sri Lanka have not yet joined the agreement. The 15% minimum tax rate will come into effect in 2023 and reallocate over USD 125 billion from around 100 of the world's largest multinational enterprises. The goal, OECD explains, is to ensure that these companies pay their fair share of taxes regardless of the jurisdictions in which they operate and make profits. Here for further information. 

Eurostat: industrial production down by 1.6% in the euro area and by 1.5% in the EU 

Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, estimates that, in August 2021, the seasonally adjusted industrial production decreased by 1.6% in the euro area and by 1.5% in the EU, compared to July 2021, when industrial production rose by 1.4% in the euro area (revised from + 1.5%). The data is in line with market expectations. On an annual basis, production recorded an increase of 5.1%, higher than expected (+ 4.7%), after the + 8% of the previous month (revised from + 7.7%). In the EU 27 countries, production recorded a decrease of 1.5% on a monthly basis after + 1.2% in July, while registered + 5.3% on an annual basis after +8.4 % of the previous month. Here the Eurostat press releases. 

IMF revised upwards to + 5.8% GDP growth for Italy in 2021 

The International Monetary Fund revised its 2021 growth estimate for Italy upwards, bringing it to 5.8%, 0.9 percentage points more than the July forecasts. For 2022, growth remains unchanged at 4.2%. With + 5.8% this year, Italy is growing more than the euro area average, marking + 5% in 2021. By 2026, the Italian GDP is estimated at + 1.0%, while the public debt will fall to 154.8% of GDP in 2021 compared to 155.8% in 2020, The downward trend will continue in 2022 until 2026, while the deficit will increase from 9.5% in 2020 to10.2% this year, decreasing to 4.7% in 2022 (2.4% in 2026). Here to learn more. 

Istat: Italy, August trade balance down to 1.316 billion euros 

According to Istat estimates, in August 2021, foreign trade recorded an increase, more marked for ingoing (+ 5.4%) than for outgoing flows (+ 0.6%). Exports grew on a monthly basis driven by sales to the EU countries (+ 6.0%), while those to non-EU markets decreased by 5%. Between June and August 2021, exports grew by 3.4% and imports by 5.8% compared to the previous quarter. Istat highlights that the slight growth in exports "is conditioned by the occasional high-value sales (seagoing vessels) to non-EU markets recorded in July." Here the Note by Istat. 

The Bank of Italy: public debt still growing in August; tax revenues up by 11.5% 

In the report "Public finance: borrowing requirement and debt, the Bank of Italy estimates that "At the end of August, general government debt increased by 8.5 billion compared to the previous month, reaching 2,734.4 billion.” The general government borrowing requirement (10.7 billion) was more than offset by the increase in Treasury's liquidity balance (18.9 billion, to 139.7) and by the effect of premiums and discounts at issuance and at redemption, the appreciation of inflation-indexed bonds and exchange rate variations (0.4 billion). At the same time, in the first eight months of 2021, tax revenues amounted to 288.2 billion, with an increase of 11.5% (29.8 billion) compared to the same period last year. Here the Note by the Bank of Italy. 

Istat: Inflation at the top since 2012, in September 2.5% on an annual basis

According to Istat, in September, the national consumer price index for the whole community (NIC) recorded a decrease of 0.2% on a monthly basis (from + 0.4% in August) and an increase of 2.5% on an annual basis (from + 2% the previous month). Preliminary ISTAT estimates were -0.1 and + 2.6%, respectively.  Istat highlights, "Inflation continues to accelerate, reaching a level never recorded since November 2012. Even grocery and unprocessed food prices are speeding up, registering an increase which, however, remains lower than the whole basket ". Here the Note by Istat. 

 

The voice of Stakeholders 

 

 

Confcommercio: businesses more optimistic than families 

For almost half of Italians, uncertainty is still holding back the recovery: consumption will not grow for 3 out of 4 households between now and December. On the other hand, businesses expect an improvement in their business and greater investments. These findings emerge from the survey conducted by Confcommercio in collaboration with Metrica Ricerche, on households and businesses' sentiment in the last months of 2021. Businesses are more optimistic (42.7%) than households (24.3%). For the coming months, they forecast an improvement in their business (61%) and increasing investments (indicated by one company out of 3), particularly in innovation and sustainability. On the other hand, concerns about a possible decline in incomes (for 80% of the sample) and savings (68.5%) and a substantial stability in goods and services consumption (for 75.5%) in the last months of year confirmed households' strong caution. Here the press release by Confcommercio. 

Coldiretti: in 2021, tourism is growing only in the Mediterranean 

In 2021, tourism is growing only in the Mediterranean European countries (Italy, Spain and Greece), where arrivals increased by 1.4%, in sharp contrast to the global collapse of 40.3%. This is the result of the analysis presented by Coldirettiat at the opening of Ttg - Travel Experience 2021 at the Rimini Expo Centre. Coldiretti points out that the pandemic affected mainly Asia and the Pacific countries causing a collapse of 81% in tourism flows and the Middle East with a 50.5% decrease in the first seven months of the year. The increase recorded in the Mediterranean, Coldiretti explains, is the consequence of a sharp rise in visitors during the summer months, which practically tripled in June and doubled in July. Here to learn more. 

Confcommercio: the "rebound" effect decreases, GDP and consumption slow down 

In September, the recovery in consumption affected mainly services, while demand for goods slowed down. On an annual basis the ICC (total cost indicator) is 0.8%, the lowest value since March, confirming some difficulties in households' spending power. According to Congiuntura Confcommercio of October, "After the deep upward fluctuations observed in Spring and Summer, the Italian recovery is starting a phase of normalization, even if further statistical rebounds are foreseeable at the end of this year." In October, ICC should record a growth of 0.1% compared to September and 4.1% on an annual basis. Here the Congiuntura Confcommercio report. 

Unioncamere: Companies expect to hire 505 thousand units in October 

According to the latest bulletin of the Excelsior information system, created by Unioncamere and Anpal, companies are seeking approximately 505 thousand workers in October: 114 thousand more (+ 29.1%) compared to the same period of 2019, 21 thousand (-4.1%) fewer compared to September 2021. They plan to activate 1.4 million contracts (+ 28.8% compared to the same quarter of 2019) between October and December.  The labour demand is growing in the industry as well as in services. Expectations for tourism and catering sectors are more cautious after the significant recovery in the summer months (-13.2% compared to October 2019), while greater confidence emerges from the culture, entertainment and, in general, services sectors (+ 19.6%) thanks to the recent reopening. Here to learn more. 

 

Innovation 

 

Industry 4.0: the market is growing and is worth 4.1 billion in 2020 

The Italian Industry 4.0 market in 2020 reached a value of € 4.1 billion, with a growth of 8%, mainly driven by IT technologies, which represent 85% of spending against 15% of OT (Operational technologies). The forecasts for 2021 indicate a further acceleration in spending, at a rate between + 12% and + 15%, exceeding 4.5 billion euros. These are the results of the research conducted by the Industry 4.0 Transition Observatory of the School of Management of the Politecnico di Milano, presented during the online conference "Industry 4.0 in a changing world". Here the press release by Osservatori.net. 

Smart working: artificial intelligence boosts transformation 

Hybrid work is the legacy that the pandemic crisis has left. This new way of working also referred to as hybrid, requires a series of changes in companies, including the need for ad hoc policies for employees, a different corporate and organizational culture and fair working conditions between those who work remotely and those who work in the office. According to the latest surveys, from July to September, the use of 4.0 technologies increased the level of involvement in meetings by 200%. In this context, flexibility, accessibility, and safety are essential elements of the so-called “Modern Workplace”, and technology becomes a central element to create adaptable and inclusive environments. Here for more information. 

Osservatori.net: in Italy, the cloud is a 3.84 billion market 

The Italian cloud market is growing. In 2021. Companies spent 3.84 billion euros, marking an increase of 16% compared to 2020. Large companies have already adopted this technology: in 44% of cases, applications are on public or private cloud, exceeding on-premises software products installed and operated from a customer's in-house server. However, over one out of three companies (34%) declares they have not supported this technological process with organizational changes in the IT (information technology) department, improving, for example, staff skills. This is the snapshot revealed by the Cloud Transformation Observatory of the School of Management of Politecnico di Milano. Here the press release by Osservatori.net. 

 

 Gender equity 

 

Digital gender gap: 126 billion GDP lost in just one year 

In 2020, digital gender exclusion, or rather the difficulty of access for women to the digital "world", cost low and lower-middle-income countries 126 billion dollars of GDP. Globally, men are 21% more likely to access the Internet than women, increasing to 52% in the least developed countries. According to the World Wide Web Foundation, losses will rise to 500 billion by 2025. Reversing the trend by guaranteeing a greater inclusion of women in digital life could make the economies earn 524 billion in 4 years. Here to learn more. 

 

Local Authorities 

 

Public finance: Borrowing requirement and debt, the monthly Note by the Bank of Italy 

The Bank of Italy published the monthly Note reporting the data relating to the general government borrowing requirement and gross debt broken down into subsectors: Central governments, Local government, Social security agencies. Here the Note by Bank of Italy, Public Finance:  Borrowing requirement and debt. 

EU Annual Regional and Local Barometer: Italy is last in the EU for digital interaction with the PA. 

A more efficient PA mitigates the burden of bureaucracy: according to the Eurobarometer survey conducted between September and October 2019 by the European Commission, the complexity of administrative procedures is a problem for 86% of Italian entrepreneurs, almost twenty points higher than 68 % of the Eurozone average and far from 62% of the EU. The low efficiency of the PA management processes and the problematic relations with public offices exacerbated during the coronavirus crisis are aggravated by the low effectiveness of the digital interaction with the PA itself: according to the 2020 update of the Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI) prepared by the European Commission, the share of Italian citizens who interact with the Public Administration by sending online forms (e-Government Users) is equal to 32.3%, less than the half of the European Union average (67.3 %) and the lowest in the EU-27, even lower than 39.1% of Greece. Here to learn more. 

The Ministry of the Interior awarded the municipalities that collaborated with the tax authorities fighting tax evasion   

The Ministry of the Interior has ordered the allocation of the 2021 contribution to the municipalities that have collaborated in the assessment of tax and social security revenues for 2020. A press release from the Interior Ministry clarified that the contribution has been suspended towards municipalities that did not send the accounting documents to the public administration database (Italian acronym BDAP) or did not fill and sent the SOSE questionnaire concerning standard expenditure needs. Here the data of the Ministry of the Interior. 

 

The world of MEF 

 

The Department of Finance: the 2021 International Report on Tax Revenue  

The Report on international tax revenues for August 2021 was published. It provides a comparative analysis of tax revenue trends in France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, United Kingdom and Spain. Here the Note by the Finance Department. 

In August, deposits and loans to households on the rise  

According to the Bank of Italy's Note "Banks and money: national data", in August, lending to the private sector grew by 1.8% on an annual basis compared with + 2.1% recorded in July. Lending to households increased by 3.7%, substantially in line with the 3.8% increase in the previous month, while lending to businesses increased by 1.2%, slowing compared to +1.8% in July. Private sector deposits also slowed down, rising by 8.1% on an annual basis, compared with + 9.3% in July. Here to learn more.