Press Review #SoseXpress 8-14 May 2021

To defeat the virus […], we need determination, initiative, and the courage to innovate and promote quality. The serious crises can be solved only through solidarity, foresight and a sense of belonging. 

The President of the Republic, Sergio Mattarella, used these words at the “David di Donatello” Award ceremony. 

The debate of ideas 

 

Public investments: the ambitions and the goals of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan

The National Recovery and Resilience Plan aims to implement an ambitious investment program, but simplifying and rationalizing the regulatory framework and strengthening the human capital endowment in the public administration are essential to relaunch the country. Investments in infrastructures are not enough, as the recovery needs reforms to modernize the country. In this regard, the NRRP provides clear strategies and defines guidelines and timelines to implement the works. Here the article published by LaVoce written by researchers from Irpet, the Regional Institute of Economic Planning in Tuscany. 

 

NRRP, INAPP (National Institute for Public Policy Analysis): "The Civil Service, a real shock for youth work." 

"The civil service is an effective tool to enhance the chances of finding a job, to promote integration and reduce the risk of social exclusion. The NRRP goes in the right direction: it does not consider young people a problem but focuses on the problems of young jobseekers". Civil service raises employment and employability, reduces the inactivity rate, helps to reorient the professional choices of the young people regardless of the family background. This analysis emerges from the study by INAPP, "The universal civil service: an opportunity for young people." Here for more information. 

 

Studies, research and numbers 

 

ICE - Prometeia report: The Evolution of international trade by areas and sectors 

It is assessed that the health crisis has caused a drop by over 7% in global trade of manufactured goods, returning to the levels of 5 years ago, if measured at constant prices. According to the XVIII Report "The Evolution of international trade by areas and sectors" by ICE in collaboration with Prometeia, in 2021, international trade will increase by 7.6% in volume. The recovery will consolidate in 2022 with a further growth of 5.3%. Here for further information. 

 

Eurostat, the impact of COVID-19 on household consumption and savings 

According to Eurostat, the EU household saving rate continued with a large year-over-year increase in the fourth quarter of 2020, rising by 6.6 percentage points (pp) compared to last year The main reason for the year-on-year increase is that household final consumption expenditure was 7.0% lower in the EU than one year ago. Household gross disposable income was 0.6% higher in the fourth quarter of 2020 (compared to the fourth quarter of 2019). Here to learn more. 

 

Public finance: Unimpresa forecasts a debt exceeding 3 trillion billion in 2024 

According to the Unimpresa Research Department, in 2024, the Italian public debt will exceed 3,000 billion euro. The effects of the Covid pandemic will continue to affect the country's public finances, and the hole in the state accounts will widen systematically over the next few years. In 2020, the debt increased to 2,573 billion; this year, it could reach 2,786 billion, 2,893 billion in 2022, 2,983 billion in 2023, and 3,033 billion in 2024. Here to learn more.

 

Istat: favorable prospects for GDP in the coming months 

"The stabilization of retail trade, the improvement of employment, and the confidence of households and businesses produced favourable prospects for the coming months." In the monthly report on the Italian economy Istat highlights that, in the first quarter, the Italian GDP decreased more than in the euro area as value-added increased in the industry and decreased in the service sector. According to the institute, the labour market and the short-term employment shows a recovery in the various sectors. Here the note by Istat. 

 

Istat: in March, industrial production decreased by 0.1% on a monthly basis 

In March 2021, the seasonally adjusted industrial production index decreased by 0.1% compared to February. In the first quarter, the production level grew by 0.9% averagely compared to the previous three months. Istat reported a significant increase in the monthly seasonally adjusted index for energy (+ 1.8%), more moderate for intermediate goods (+ 0.5%), and even more reduced for capital goods (+ 0.2%); instead, it decreased in the consumer goods sector (-1.5%). Here the note by Istat. 

 

OECD: youth unemployment rate Italy at the top after Spain. And for women, Italy ranks third after Colombia and Spain

In Italy, youth unemployment rose in March (from 31.9% to 33%) and remained at the top after Spain among the OECD countries. OECD data on unemployment in the area, reveal an average rate 13.3%, down from 13.6% in February. The female unemployment rate in Italy grew in March in contrast to most OECD countries. Female unemployment in our country rose to 11.4% compared to 11.3% in February against an average decline in OECD countries from 6.8% to 6.6%. Here to learn more. 

 

Intesa Sanpaolo-Prometeia: In the crisis, Italian manufacturing exceeded expectations

According to the Report "Analisi dei Settori Industriali Maggio 2021 (Industrial Sector Analysis May 2021)" by Intesa Sanpaolo and Prometeia, the lockdown in March-April caused a loss in turnover of 90 billion in 2020, a decline of 9.3% at constant prices. However, the drop was lower than expected and, above all, less marked than during the world recession of 2009 (-16%). From May 2020, at the end of the first phase of the health emergency, the Italian industry recorded a significant rebound, more intense than in other cyclical phases, when Italian exports (-8.8% at constant prices in 2020) held better in comparison with Germany (-9.1%) and France (-16%). Here to learn more. 

 

Italian wine: stocks down, increasing exports to the US and China  

Good news for Italian wine, according to the Italian Wine Union Observatory (Uiv). Despite a richer harvest, stocks decreased considerably and are almost identical to the quantities of the same period of 2020, increasing by 1.5% and falling by 0.6% for PDO wines. Exports also improved. The first reopenings reduced the loss in value of the previous months in the US, recording -22% in January and -9.7% in March. In the same quarter, exports to China also recovered. Here for more information. 

 

EU:The economic outlook for 2021 improves, + 4.3% for Europe and + 4.2% for Italy

A solid growth in the last quarter of 2021 should bring EU GDP back to pre-crisis level earlier than expected. The EU economy is forecast to grow by 4.2% in 2021 and to strengthen to around 4.4% in 2022 (4.3% and 4.4%, respectively, in the euro area), a brighter outlook compared to the 2021 Winter forecasts presented by the Commission in February. Here for more information. 

 

The Bank of Italy: loans to the private sector up by 4% in March. Bad debts down by 18.5% over 12 months 

In March, lending to the private sector, adjusted to consider securitizations and other loans transferred and derecognized from banks' balance sheets, grew by 4.0 percent on an annual basis (against 4.5 in February). Lending to households increased by 3.2 percent in the same period of 2020 (against 2.4 in February) and to non-financial corporations increased by 5.7 percent (against 7.6 percent in the previous month). This snapshot emerges from the publication "Banks and money" by the Bank of Italy. Private sector deposits rose by 9.9 percent on an annual basis (against 11.2 percent in February) and bad debts fell by 18.5 percent on an annual basis. Here the Note by the Bank of Italy. 

 

Eurispes report: further into poverty, in 2020 440 thousand jobs lost

According to the 33rd Eurispes Report "Italia," based on the data provided by the Bank of Italy, 50% of the Italian families suffered a reduction in income of about 15% in the first months of the health emergency. The situation is particularly alarming among self-employed workers: almost 80% have experienced a decline in income, and for 36% of them, the decrease was 50%. Furthermore, Istat estimates a loss of 440,000 jobs for 2020. According to the research institute, Italy is among the first in Europe for income inequality and stands out for its extremely low social mobility. Here for more information. 

Social mood on economy index, a measure of the Italian sentiment on the economy based on Twitter data

Istat updated the Social Mood on Economy Index, an experimental index that provides daily measures of the Italian sentiment on the economy. According to Istat, the seasonal component of the series showed positive peaks in December and in the period late March-early April and a negative peak in the summer months. In the first quarter of 2021, the trend component of the Social Mood on Economy index showed a clear decrease in the first ten days of January followed by a slight recovery in the following 20 days. The growth also covers the entire month of February, while the last month of the quarter showed a drop which finally brings the indicator back to the levels of December 2020. Here the Note by Istat. 

 

The voice of Stakeholders 

 

Anitec-Assinform and InfoCamere: ICT innovative SMEs and Startups up by 17.9% 

Despite the Covid-19 pandemic, in 2020, the new registrations by innovative ICT startups and SMEs amounted to 2,006 with an increase of 17.9%, 5 points higher than the total of new registrations in all sectors (+ 13.3%). According to the analysis published by Anitec-Assinform and InfoCamere., at the end of February 2021, 6,663 ICT startups and innovative SMEs were registered in the special section of the Business Register, equal to 47.8% of all startups and innovative SMEs. Here to learn more.

 

CNA Roma-SWG: more inclusive companies withstand better the crisis

"Micro and small artisan enterprises, with an almost family environment, are historically more suitable for providing 360-degree protection to diversity. Small enterprises have always aimed at enhancing professionalism, minds, human aspects and are welcoming and attractive. Some sectors have always had these features. According to a survey by SWG, conducted on a sample of local companies and promoted by the CNA of Rome in collaboration with Nina International and the Rome Chamber of Commerce, for 55% of companies in Rome, diversity is a strength and contributes to the company's success. Here for more information.

 

Confturismo-Swg: tourism on the starting blocks, nine million Italians ready to leave 

According to the Confturismo-Swg survey on lifting restrictions from May 15th, eight out of ten Italians will remain in Italy; others will choose Spain and Greece. According to the survey, the sector is finally beginning to recover not only for arrivals but also for departures: 9 million Italians are ready to leave during the summer months and have already booked. Here to learn more. 

 

Confartigianato, the escalation of raw material prices, a spring frost on the 2021 recovery 

The data of the latest ECB Economic Bulletin confirm the escalation of prices raw material prices: in April 2021, the prices of non-energy raw materials increased by 33.4% compared to last year (+ 24% in March) and non-food prices grew by 51.4%. The collapse in prices during the 2020 spring lockdown affects the comparison on an annual basis. However, the increase remains high, around + 37% for non-food commodities. The latest trends in commodity price are analysed in the report published by the Confartigianato Research Department, a spring frost on the fragile recovery of the Italian economy that involves many SMEs. Here to learn more. 

 

Unioncamere: the export.gov.it portal supports internationalization 

The export.gov.it portal was born, a tool helping Italian companies to get oriented in exports and more easily access all support services for business internationalization. The portal was promoted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation within the strategies implemented to support internationalization. It was realized by the ICE Agency, SACE, and SIMEST and signed by 45 subjects (Ministries, trade associations, federations sector, and institutions supporting internationalization, including Unioncamere). Here to learn more. 

 

 Innovation 

 

MISE: investments for over 102 million euro for startups and innovative SMEs

Investments for Startups and Innovative SMEs recorded a substantial increase in April 2021, from 27 million to over 102 million euro, thanks to loans subsidized by the Ministry of Economic Development since March 1, 2021. On April 30, the approved loans amounted to 7,567, compared to 1,688 at the end of March, and the subsidies granted increased from 13 million at the end of March to 46 million euros. Here the note by Mise. 

 

Chips: a 520bn dollar market, a 12.5% rebound expected 

The global semiconductor market did not suffer any crisis in the year of Covid and is preparing for rapid growth in 2021. According to the study "Semiconductor applications forecaster" by Idc, in 2020, the sector's revenues grew by 10.8% (compared to 2019) for a total of 464 billion dollars, and for 2021 a turnover increase of 12,5% is expected, up to 522 billion. IDC estimates that in 2021, chips for the consumer, computing, 5G, and automotive sectors will be the driving force in demand, despite the supply shortage. Here to learn more. 

  

Employment grows with robots, + 50% in all related activities

During the seven years 2011-2018, the introduction of industrial robots did not produce negative effects on the employment rate. Albeit to a limited extent, it contributed to reducing the unemployment rate. This emerges from the study "Stop worrying and love the robot: An activity-based approach to assess the impact of robotization on employment dynamics," realized by researchers from Inapp (National Institute for the Analysis of Public Policies), of the University of Trento and Ispat (Statistical Institute of the province of Trento). In particular, the study revealed that a 1% increase in robot adoption raises the local share of robot operators by 0.29 percentage points. Such an effect can fully explain the increase of about 50 % of these workers. Here to learn more. 

 

B2C eCommerce Observatory: eCommerce is worth 32.4 billion 

According to the latest survey by the B2C eCommerce Observatory - Netcomm School of Management of the Politecnico di Milano, in 2020, Italians' online purchases grew by 3.4% and reached a value of 32.4 billion Euro. The pandemic affected this dynamic strongly, generating an opposite trend in the product sectors, which grew by + 45%, equal to € 25.9 billion, and the service sectors, which fell by -52%, a reduction of 6.5 billion Euro in online purchases. In 2020, the product sectors recorded explosive growth of online sales with an absolute value increased by 8 billion Euro compared to 2019, driven by IT and consumer electronics (+1.9 billion Euro), Food & Grocery (+1.3 billion Euro), and Furniture and Home Living (+1.1 billion Euro). Here for more information. 

 

JRC Report: EU, more than 125 billion Euro for Research and Innovation 

In the period 2014-2020, the EU invested over 125 billion Euro in Research and Innovation through two main channels: Horizon 2020 and the cohesion policy, represented by the European Structural and Investment Funds (ESIF), in particular, the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF). This analysis emerges from the report "Exploring Synergies between EU Cohesion Policy and Horizon 2020 Funding across European Regions" realized by the Joint Research Center (JRC) of the European Commission. The study examined the allocation of research and innovation grants in the various EU regions, outlining a regional mapping of innovation influenced by structural and policy factors. Here for more information. 

 

Horizon Europe and Recovery Plan, a unique opportunity 

Horizon Europe is the most ambitious Framework Program for research and innovation that the European Union has ever launched. Its considerable financial endowment amounting to 95.5 billion euro for the next seven years represents an increase in real terms of 24% compared to the previous program and 9% of the total budget of the Union. The new European Innovation Council will develop industrial partnerships and support the European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT) communities, an extraordinary opportunity to re-evaluate the role of research and innovation as a driving force for sustainable and lasting development. Here and here to learn more. 

 

The new Exprivia report on cybercrime 

According to the Exprivia Cybersecurity Observatory, the period October-December 2020 recorded 237 cybercrimes, an increase of 60% compared to the previous quarter and 400% compared to the January-March period, when they were only 49. The pandemic outbreak and the spread of smart working caused an increase in cyber-attacks, privacy violations, and incidents across all economic and public administration sectors. Here for more information. 

 

Gender equity 

 

Eurostat: Women represent about half of the workers in science and technology 

In 2020, out of nearly 73 million people employed in science and technology in the EU aged 15 to 74, almost 37.5 million were women (51.3%) and 35.5 million men (48.7%). In two-thirds of the Member States, most people employed in science and technology were women, the highest share being in Lithuania and Latvia, 63.7% and 62.9% respectively. Austria, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Czechia, Italy, and Malta are the only countries with a share of less than 50%, ranging from 49.9% to 45.2%. Here to learn more. 

 

Local Authorities 

 

"Sostegni" Decree, the note by Anci (National Association of Italian Municipalities) on the main news concerning Municipalities, is online

ANCI published a summary of the note that illustrates the main changes introduced by the Budget and Finance Committees of the Senate to the "Sostegni" Decree. The decree-law of 22 March 2021, n. 41, containing "Urgent measures to support businesses and economic operators, work, health, and local service in response to the COVID-19 emergency, " was approved by the Senate's joint budget and finance commissions. It will be debated, and the Government will present a maxi-amendment incorporating the changes made by the commissions. Here for more information. 

 

The world of MEF 

 

Mef: VAT registrations on the rise 

Mef estimates that in the first quarter of 2021, 186,019 new VAT numbers were registered, increasing by 15.3% compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. The month-to-month comparison shows that the increase is concentrated in March 2021 (+ 105.7%), since March 2020 was affected by the Covid outbreak. Contrary to the expected rise in business closures due to the economic crisis following the health emergency, the 2020 data revealed a 22% decrease compared to 2019. As MEF underscores, these data confirm that the measures adopted in 2020 to support enterprises have contained the closures. Here the press release by MEF.