#SoseXpress - Press Review 31st August/4th September

We need to experience an ecological conversion, in order to slow down our inhuman pace of consumption and production, and to be creative, like artisans, devising fresh new ways to pursue the common good.

From Pope Francis’ message to the forty-sixth Forum Ambrosetti in Cernobbio.

The Debate of ideas

 

The weekend of the European House – Ambrosetti.

The 46th edition of Forum Ambrosetti took place in Cernobbio, hosting from 4th to 7th September, the traditional economic debate. After the opening speeches, Pope Francis' message to leaders and the interviews with representatives of the economic world, also experts, institutional authorities, and politicians took part in the event. The topic: today and tomorrow scenarios for competitive strategies. 

 

Recovery Fund and ESM: Mr. Gentiloni speaks about the use of pandemic funds.

The European Commissioner for Economy, Paolo Gentiloni, held a hearing before the committees for Budget and European Affairs of the Chamber and Senate about Recovery fund investments and ESM resources. Among the themes the future discussion on the European rules.

Studies, Researches and Numbers

 

Svimez: fragmented recovery and  a part of the South does not latch on it.

Lombardy, Veneto, and Emilia-Romagna are reacting to the pandemic in 2021. The Centre is feeling the effects in the areas of the earthquake. A part of the South is not latching on the post-Covid recovery. According to Svimez the recovery impact will be different at a regional level, and the pandemic is amplifying the fragmentation of the development process in the Country. 

 

ISTAT: the quarterly national accounts published.

In the second quarter of 2020, the seasonally and calendar adjusted chained volume measure of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) with reference to the base year 2015 decreased by 12.8 percent compared with the previous quarter and by 17.7 percent compared with the second quarter of 2019. ISTAT reveals these data in its press release.

 

Decreasing numbers of the turnover in services.

ISTAT estimates reveal that in the second quarter of 2020, the turnover index in services has decreased in all sectors, particularly those most affected by the health emergency. The accommodation and food service activities show a drastic drop of 62,6%. Consistent decreases have affected travel agencies and support service activities (-30,7%), Transportation and storage (-27,8%), and Professional, scientific and technical (-23,2%) activities.

 

How is Italian manufacturing Industry? Better, according to Ihs Markit.

The PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) elaborated by His Markit for J.P. Morgan measures the development of the manufacturing industry and has highlighted a certain recovery in August for Italian companies, with better results than in other European countries.

 

Employment is growing, according to ISTAT.

In July 2020, after four months of declines, employment returned to grow and the increase of unemployment continued, against a drop of inactivity. The number of people looking for a job continues to increase. ISTAT has revealed these data in an updated note.

 

The European House- Ambrosetti: The forum in Cernobbio dealt with the numbers of the Country.

The econometric model elaborated by the European House – Ambrosetti estimates for Italy a GDP decrease of 10,8% in 2020, the third worse decrease in the 150-year history of the Republic. An understandable collapse of confidence has characterized the first two quarters of 2020: the sentiment indicator about the current situation decreased to -60,8 in March and to 59,8 in June, pessimistic values never registered before. These considerations are at the base of the third survey of 2020 about the Italian economic prospects opening the 46th edition of the Forum in Cernobbio. 

 

Wine: the data of the thematic observatory and the 2020 estimates.

A good or even outstanding and sometimes excellent grape quality for a year that seems interesting. The production in line with last year (-1, 47,2 million hectoliters) suffers the effects of the economic situation. Still, it makes Italy the most important wine producer in the world, followed by France with 45 million hectoliters and Spain (42 million). We have summarised the estimates elaborated by Assoenologi, ISMEA and Unione Italiana Vini available here.

The voice of stakeholders

 

Consumption analysis in Italian Regions: COVID-19 has burned 116 billion euros.

The study of 2020 consumptions in Italian regions by the Research Department of ConfCommercio reveals a Covid effect at different speeds:  the decrease amount to 10,9% (equal to a 116 billion decrease, 1.900 euros per capita) at the national level. The North is the most penalized area (-11,7%), with a total reduction of 60% concentrated in eight regions and Lombardy registering the highest loss in absolute value (over 22,6 billion consumptions). 

 

The severe Covid impact in the service turnover, measured by Confartigianato.

In the first six months of 2020, the service sector in Italy lost 17% in revenues, with better performance than Spain (-19,9%) but registering a more accentuated decrease than France (-11,6%) and Germany (-6%). 

 

The good practices of small enterprises: the report by Confapi.

The Report on companies' practices during crises realized in collaboration with the Harvard Business School was published. It aims to highlight the SMEs' virtuous actions to face the COVID-19 pandemic. Different profiles and best practices emerged, linked to process and product innovation and the ability to adapt to the demand change. 

 

According to Unioncamere and Anpal, recovery signals come from the building and food industry, also as regards employment.

Enterprises forecast 310 thousand new jobs in September. In comparison with the same period of 2019, the decrease in planned revenues remains at -28,7%.  The Bulletin of the Excelsior IT system realized by Unioncamere and Anpal outlines this scenario.

Innovation

 

Implementation of the Three-year plan for computerization: the data provided by Corte dei Conti.

The report by Corte dei Conti about the implementation of the three-year plan for Computerization was published. The survey involved most local authorities (90,51% of the total). It revealed a clear digital gap among local authorities due to geographic and dimensional factors: Regions, Provinces, and Cities with more than 250.000 inhabitants pursuing the three-year plan's goals are in the Northern part of the Country and the more advanced economic districts. The criteria used to select the Digital Transition Managers, appointed only in 36,7% of local administrations, have revealed inadequate. 

 

Italy has advanced a little in the global innovation ranking.

According to WIPO, a specialized agency of the United Nations, Italy is advancing in the Global Innovation Index ranking, earning the 28th position globally. The difficulty of obtaining credit, few investments (also as regard education), and phenomena linked to administrative efficiency slow down the country, which is first for industrial design at the international level. Covid generally causes certain anxiety for research and innovation. 

The world of MEF

 

All the measures of the August Decree

Here we publish an in-depth article by MEF dedicated to the measures provided by the “ August decree” concerning employment, economy support, taxation, local authorities.

 

MEF: better revenues than expectations.

The provisional data concerning tax revenues acquired on 20 August are higher than expectations and show a global improvement of the Italian economy. August 2020 registered an increase of 9% in taxes paid through F24 forms compared to the same month of 2019, accompanied by a good trend of IRPEF and IRES paid through self-assessment taxation. MEF provided these numbers in its press release.

 

Liquidity implementation taskforce Update.

The applications for moratoriums on loans exceeded 300 billion euros and the applications for guarantees on new bank loans submitted by MSMEs to the Central Guarantee Fund for SMEs exceeded 74,7 billion euros. The “Garanzia Italia” of SACE granted guarantees for 12,9 billion euros, based on 468 applications received.