#SoseXpress – Press review May 1st /8th

We are going through an epochal shift full of difficulties. We will overcome them.

This is the wish of President of the Republic, Sergio Mattarella celebrating the 1st Maggio 2020 

 The debate of ideas

The real strength of the European Union.

Luigi Federico Signorini, Vice General Director of Banca d’Italia, Claudia M. Buch, Vice Chairman of Deutche Bundesbank, and Sylvie Goulard, Vice Governor of Banque de France, signed a joint article emphasizing the importance of a pragmatic and not ideological joint action to face the Coronavirus pandemic crisis. European cooperation, they write, is working better than anyone could imagine, and financial stability is an example: significant results have been achieved and we ca learn from experience. 

 

Anti-Covid proposals from "Laboratorio Fiscale".

Laboratorio Fiscale is a group of researchers born on the initiative of Luigi Casero and Vieri Ceriani that listed a series of proposals for recovery in the pages of “il Sole 24 ore”.

Here some hypothesis: more tolerance for advance payments on a provision basis and a failure-to-pay penalty reduced from 30% to 10%; compensations increased up to 1 million; a 6% increase of notional return on the new capital for 2020, 2021 and 2022 tax years; the possibility to accrue suspension periods related to verifications with acceptance and those related to procedural time-limits provided for by “Cura Italia” and “Liquidità” decrees”; suspension of deducibility limit related to financial expenses for two tax years; suspension of regulations governing letter box companies and companies repeatedly reporting losses; reduction of taxes on incomes deriving from debt instruments; contribution on asset leasing; extension of tax-neutrality regime and increase of the 5 million benefit for business combination transactions; accelerating refunds and patent-box bonus.

 

State interventionism: yes or not?

The debate on the role of State in the economy continues and according to the historian Valerio Castronovo, state interventionism has been fundamental for Italian economy. However, this phenomenon was overcome at least 30 years ago. Even if public instruments and incentives can be useful in the near future, a durable growth of Italian economy will depend mainly on a valid regulation of the relationship between public and private sectors with the aim to encourage the last one to implement innovations, projects and human resource training.

 

Does financial education work? Apparently, it does.

An article written by a team of experts including 76 research groups concerning an equal number of financial education initiatives carried out in 33 countries and involving 160.000 individuals was published in the web portal “Economia per Tutti”. As reported by the authors individuals participating in financial education programmes increase their knowledge and improve their behaviours. According to the study the impact of those initiatives is similar to educational interventions aiming to improve mathematics and reading skills and to health and environmental awareness campaign.

 

 Studies, researches, and numbers

 

A deep and uneven recession. The forecasts of the EU Commission.

The EU Commission published the 2020 Spring economic forecasts according to which the EU economy will register a contraction far deeper than 7%. The pandemic is a symmetric shock, as it has affected all Member states but, according to the forecasts, the contraction in GDP in 2020 and the impacts in 2021 will differ across Member States. 

 

Monthly note on Italian economy. 

Covid-19 impact on Italian economy is deep and widespread: the economy registered a contraction of 4,7% compared to the preceding quarter while for 2020 a contraction of 4,9% is expected. This is reported by ISTAT in the April monthly note on Italian economy. 

 

The Regions and the measures to support SMEs: the framework elaborated by OECD.

The OECD Research Department for Local Development of Trento conducted a survey on the measures adopted by Regions to contain Covid-19 emergency. 278 measures were adopted to support SMEs and 77 simplified procedures. According the survey 4 regions are most inclined to adopt simplification measures. 

 

Bankitalia: The first 2020 financial stability report.

The Financial Stability Report No. 1 – 2020 analysing the global Covid-19 pandemic impact issued by the Banca d’Italia. It includes three sections: macroeconomic risks and risks by sector, financial system risks, macroprudential risks. 

 

Covid crisis and labour market: an in-depth analysis by Bankitalia. 

An article edited by Bankitalia researchers analysing compulsory communication data in Veneto, Piedmont and Tuscany updated at 15th April was published online. The numbers show a significant decrease in the number

of employees with some differences as regards temporary and  seasonal contracts. 

 

Italian Export according to Sace. 

According Oxford Economics forecasts , highlighted by Sace and published by Corriere della Sera, Italian enterprises will be able to resume exports in the fourth quarter of the year, mainly in the agri-food and pharmaceutical sectors towards Countries such as China, Vietnam and the Philippines. 

 

Over 90000 requests for loan guarantee: the numbers of the Task Force for the implementation of Covid-19 measures.

The requests for moratorium on loans have increased to 1,6 million for a total amount of 177 billion and the requests for guarantees on bank loans by MSMEs submitted to the Fondo di Garanzia per le Pmi have exceed 90.000. These are the most significant numbers of a weekly survey conducted by the task force established to promote the implementation of the measures to support liquidity adopted by the Government in response to Covid-19 emergency. 

 

The survival capability of enterprises: a joint study.

The researchers of the World Bank and the London School of Economic are the authors of a survey about the survival capability of enterprises facing lockdown. The survey was conducted on 7000 firms in 12 Countries, considering emerging economies and southern Europe and estimate a survival time on average of 10-weeks in Italy. Here the documentation.

 

The production capacity of the Health Care system during the Covid pandemic.

The researchers of Banca d’Italia have analysed the development of the measures strengthening the production capacity of the Health Care System in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Both the national and regional Governments have adopted rapid interventions. The beds in the intensive care units and the medical staff have until now increased by 65 and 3.5% respectively. Northern regions registered a higher increase due to more severe effects of the pandemic. 

 

 The voice of stakeholders

 

The social distress index has increased by over 3 points in March 2020: The data provided by Misery Index of Confcommercio.

The Misery index Confcommercio - MIC of March was published in the website of the association revealing that the social distress index increased to 20,5 points returning to the level of October. The widespread unemployment stopped at 15,8% while the prices of goods and services increased by 0,6%.

 

Covid-19 impact on enterprises according to Confederazione Nazionale dell'Artigianato e della Piccola e Media Impresa di Roma. 

7 enterprises out of 10 used social shock absorbers and a decrease in revenues of 42% is expected by the end of the year. These are the results of a survey conducted by CAN on a sample of 14 enterprises. 

 

The estimate of CGIA of Mestre.

According to an analysis carried out by the CGIA of Mestre, 0,9% of the enterprises and professionals interested in the Liquidity Decree have used the Central Guarantee Fund of Mediocredito. Mini loans not exceeding 25 thousand euro were 45.700 out of 5 million subjects 

 

The uncertain future of Food. 

An uncertain future for 6 firms out of 10 with a phase 2 that could last 6-12 months.

These are the results of a survey conducted by University Roma 3 for Unione Italiana Food on 120 food companies of different sizes. 44% of the involved companies require a greater support to enterprises, 13% tax reductions and 11% measure to relaunch consumptions. 

 

Covid impact on Italian hospitality.

The pandemic impact on Italian hospitality is devastating. This is certified by Federalberghi which in March registered a real collapse in the number of tourists in the accommodation establishments (92.3% decrease for foreigner tourists and a 85,9% decrease for Italian tourists). In April the market stopped completely with a 99,1% decrease for foreigner tourists and a 96,4% decrease for Italian tourists. Seasonal jobs at risk for summer 2020 are about 500 thousand. 

 

 Innovation

 

The importance of Data Science: not only infection- tracing app

Not only a tracing app: data scientists of our Country are utilizing information on mobility to understand citizens’ behaviours and acquire precious indications to face emergencies. This is demonstrated by programmes such as Data for Good by Facebook or Covid Community Mobility Reports by Google which allow a secondary use of data originally collected for purposes other than research. In Italy data were very useful for a study carried out by Politecnico of Milan, Ca’ Foscari of Venice, Cnr - Institutes for Complex Systems and the University of Brescia concerning the Covid-19 economic and social consequences or for Covid Mobility Monitoring Project of the Isi Foundation of Turin based on anonymized data provided by Cuebiq. 

 

 Local Authorities

 

Siope Monitoring: losses of Municipalities in the first four months of 2020.

In the first four months of this year Municipalities registered a 2,715 billion loss in taxes and charges. Siope, MEF IT system tracing collection and payment orders related to public bodies, revealed that local taxes stopped at 3,49 billion (compared to 4 billion in the first three months of 2019) and charges at 1,96 billion (in the same period of 2019 they amounted to 2,4 billion). The collapse in April: 323 million of taxes in 2020 compared to 1,42 billion in 2019, 256 million of charges compared to 852 million in the preceding year.

ANAC guidelines to accelerate procedures are online.

The guidelines to accelerate and simplify tenders was published on ANAC website. The document analyses current regulations and explains the main provisions related to Covid-19 emergency.

ISA

 

The criteria to access 2019 reward system was defined. 

A provision of April 4th 2020 defines the fiscal reliability levels that allow taxpayers to benefit the 2019 reward system. The score system is the same while the calculation system has been changed.

 

The world of MEF

 

Pre-compiled tax return 2020: consultation and access keys.

From May 5th the pre-compiled tax returns 2020 are available on the Revenue website. Access keys are different: SPID, Fisconline or INPS credentials and National Service Card. 

 

Liquidity Decree: The hearing of Mr. Gualtieri, Minister of Economy and Finance. 

Mr. Gualtieri held a hearing during which he explained the Liquidity Decree. The Decree was approved when the Temporary Framework had been changed to adopt state measures supporting liquidity and was based on two pillars: loan guarantees and moratoriums. Here the text of the hearing including updated data.