#SoseXpress - Press Review May9th/16th

 “The decree will leave nobody alone and will relaunch economy”

Roberto Gualtieri, in an interview with la Repubblica comments the Relaunch Decree

Debate of Ideas

 

Klaus Regling’s numbers

The managing director of the European Financial Stability Facility gave an interview to five European press agencies providing the numbers of the European stability Mechanism. According to Regling, Italy would save up to 7 billion thanks to the 10-year loan of 36 billion at a rate close to 0% granted to the Treasury by the European Stability Mechanism through the new credit line contrasting the pandemic emergency. Compared with the current 10-year BTP yield, which fluctuates around 2% thanks to the purchases by the ECB, the Mes loan allows to save 640 million. Finally, Regling assumed that only 80 billion out of 240 billion will be used, namely one third of the total.

 

Allen Sinai: rapid crisis, slow recovery.

Sinai, head of Decision Economics in New York, thinks about the economic fallout. The recovery, he explains, will be slow – while the fall was rapid - and will start in autumn.

In his opinion it is right to invest, but in hi-tech – the pharmaceutical sector is much more dangerous, while it is advisable to avoid luxury and energy as those secotrs will be long affected by recession.

 

1000 Champions for recovery.

ItalyPost, enterprise analysis webportal, selected for il Corriere della Sera 1000 Champions among the SMEs ready to drive recovery. Before pandemic these enterprises were growing and earning at record rate. They used the frozen time of lockdown to secure their companies and workers, create new production layouts and anticipate the ““new normalily” of markets which are probably completely changed. 

 

“Riparte l’Italia”: observatory for the collection and dissemination of best practices.

The economic and social observatory” Riparte Italia” was created with the aim to collect civil society’s knowledge and use it to propose solutions and projects.

The observatory, that has involved above all economists and academics, aims to become an open platform for the widest dissemination of best practices and new models. 

 

Proposals and ideas for a new tax administration.

A project for tax administration and tax policy that will become one of the pillars for the economic recovery of the Country. With these premises Il Sole 24 Ore is collecting proposals and ideas to make tax administration a real tool to support the relaunch of economy. After the proposals of Laboratorio Fiscale also those of Confindustria Research Department. 

 

Studies and Researches

 

Istat: Industrial production indices of March published

The seasonally adjusted industrial production index is expected to decrease in March 2020 by 28,4% compared to February. on average in the first quarter of the year the seasonally adjusted production level decreased by 8,4% compared to the preceding months. These are some of the data contained in the note on industrial production published by ISTAT 

 

The update on the first quarter of 2020 published by Osservatorio Partite Iva of MEF.

In the first three months of 2020 158.740 new VAT numbers were registered and compared to the same period of last year a 19,7% decrease was registered mainly due to the health emergency. This is reported by Osservatorio sulle Partite Iva of MEF with a detailed analysis of territorial distribution, production sector, flat-rate system 

 

The weekly survey of Liquidity Task Force published.

The moratoium requests concerning 233 billion total loan were more than 2.2 million and the requests for guaranteed loans for MSMEs submitted to the Guarantee Fund for SMEs

exceeded 150.000. These are the more significant results of the weekly survey elaborated by the task force established to promote the measures supporting liquidity adopted by the Government. 

 

Svimez estimates Covid-19 impact on Centre, North and South

The lockdown costs 47 billion/month, 37 in the Centre-North, 10 in the South. Considering a resumption of the activities in the second part of the year, in 2020 the GDP will decrease in Italy by 8,4%, -8,5% in the Centre-North and -7,9% in the South. These are some data contained in the survey published by Svimez, according to which, even if the health emergency affects mainly the North, the South risks to become weaker. Here the in-depth analysis

 

Cerved Industry Forecast, the update.

Cerved updated forecasts estimate a loss of 671 billion euros in turnover for the next two years due to the Covid-19 emergency. The effects are very different according to the sectors: cinema, transport and tourism are the sectors most affected, e-commerce is growing rapidly. 

 

Nomisma anticipation: the barn of the Italians.

First data from a Nomisma survey about to be published: the institute conducted a survey on a sample of 900 families, finding that 60% of Italians during the lockdown did not lose income and spent less than usual. 20 billion forced savings, a liquidity that adds to the 1200 billion that has remained for years in bank accounts. Marcello Messori, director of Luiss School of European Economy comments the numbers: it is as if we are increasingly filling a barn that is never used. Guido Tabellini, Bocconi, on the other hand, notes that economic policy has the tools to intervene. Among all: stimulating the demand by cutting VAT temporarily and for a limited period of time.

 

EY: which scenarios after the crisis?

The 22nd edition of EY Global Capital Conference Barometer has been published. The survey was conducted on approximately 2900 executives from 46 different countries to investigate how they imagine the future beyond the Covid crisis. According to 73% of interviewed managers the impact of the pandemic will still be strong in the next 12 months, causing interruptions in the logistics chain and a drop in consumption, the majority however is preparing for the future, starting the transformation of their companies.

 

The voice of the Stakeholders

 

According to Confcommercio 270.000 enterprises are risking closure.

According to Confcommercio Research Department 270.000 trade and service companies would risk definitive closure if the economic conditions do not improve allowing them to resume fully their activities by October 2020.

Joint declaration of industrial organizations from Italy, France and Germany.

Confindustria, BDI and Medef (the German and French equivalents) have published a joint declaration, addressed to the governments of Italy, Germany and France and to the European institutions, to ask for a broad plan to promote economic growth and defend enterprises’ competitiveness globally . Among the recommendations: a strengthening of the State Aid Temporary Framework; the adoption of strong national counter-cyclical fiscal measures to support the recovery. 

MSME workers: the warning of Confartigianato.

Covid-19 emergency and lockdown measures put more 650 thousand workers at risk in micro and small enterprises of manufacturing, building and non-commercial sectors. The data were provided by Confartigianato during a hearing before the Senate Labour Committee concerning the pandemic impact on employment. 

Conciliation between family and work: a problem affecting 3 million mothers.

Phase 2: as the return to work is approaching it becomes increasingly difficult to manage work and family. This is true for 3 million women with at least one child (younger than 15), about 30% of employed women (9.872.000). This problem was highlighted by Fondazione Consulenti del Lavoro.

 

Innovation

The technological Innovation and Digitalization fund has been founded.

The Technological Innovation and Digitalization Fund has been established by article No 230 of the Relaunch Decree with an initial allocation of 50 million euro. The financial resources will be used first to improve online services for citizens. 

 

CoBUL, towards the implementation of the Ultra-Broadband strategic plan. 

CoBUL, the Inter-Ministerial Committee for Ultra-Broad unlocked 1,5 billion for the implementation of the national strategic plan. Over 400 million euro will be allocated to connect 32.213 schools (81,4% of the total). 

 

Local Authorities

The note of Anci about relevant measures of the Relaunch Decree for Municipalities. 

The first note of Anci concerning the most important measures of the Relaunch Decree for Municipalities is online. The document aims to orient and simplify the interpretation of the measures, pointing out those of specific relevance. 

The development of utrabroadband works in the Italian Municipalities.

The update concerning ultrabroadband works is online: of the 7000 municipalities involved, 3000 are in the design phase and 2000 are under implementation. Here the dashboard with all updates.

“Immuni”, all that it is necessary to know.

The section dedicated to the most common information and questions on “Immuni”, the contact tracing app, has been published on the institutional website of the MID (Minister for Technological Innovation and Digitization). From the Call Innova per l’Italia, to the development of the app, the reports of the dedicated task force, updates and hearings can be found in a single point of access. Accessible here.

 

The wolrd of MEF

Relaunch Decree: The measures to relaunch the Country.  

With the Relaunch Decree the Government has allocated 155 billion euro to strengthen the healthcare and safety sectors and to support enterprises, employment, tourism and culture. Over 130 billion euro were allocated to provide liquidity and support to employment and economy through recovery measures for enterprises, while 2 billion euro were allocated to support tax interventions. 

 

The guide of the Revenue Agency for agile services is online

The guide of the Revenue Agency for agile services allowing taxpayers to orient and find addresses and useful indications is online. The vademecum is intended as a compass, a facilitated path to access the services.